Montana vs Ludogorets II Result & Analysis

Montana’s defensive solidity is the story for this match, with an average of just 0.73 goals conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents. Ludogorets II, meanwhile, has been leaking 1.44 goals per game away, a stark contrast to their modest 0.78 average scored. The model therefore favours a home win, assigning 56% to Montana, 30% to a draw and 15% to Ludogorets II. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a tight affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Montana, a 18% chance. The prediction also highlights an 85.8% probability that the total will stay under 3.5. Montana’s recent form, coming off a 3-0 victory, underpins their confidence, while Ludogorets II’s last game was a 1-1 draw. The suggested pick, Under 3.5, carries a strong edge.

The pre-match favourite, Montana, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s Home win call incorrect. The game had been expected to produce two goals, with the most likely scoreline 1-0, yet both sides were held scoreless. Montana, riding a win-loss-win-loss-win streak, had been tipped to win with a 56% probability, while the model’s single suggested pick, Under 3.5 goals, hit its mark with an 85.8% chance. Ludogorets II, coming off a draw and averaging 0.78 goals scored, managed to keep the scoreline flat, confirming the model’s prediction that the total would stay below three and a half.