Montana’s defensive record at home is a key factor, conceding 0.89 goals per match while scoring 0.89 against similarly ranked opponents. Ludogorets II, on the road, averages 0.55 goals scored and 0.91 conceded to the same tier. The model favours a Montana win, with a 49% chance, a draw at 35% and an away win at 16%. The expected total is 1.7 goals, pointing to a tight, low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Montana, with a 20.2% probability. Recent form offers a narrative: Montana enters after a 3-0 win over Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa, while Ludogorets II comes off a 1-1 draw with Hebar 1918. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (100%), Under 6.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.8%), Under 5.5 (99.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.2%), Under 4.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%) and Home +2 handicap (96.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Montana win
48.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II win
16.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Montana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.30
0.86
1.29
0.62
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.50
0.25
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.67
1.12
0.89
0.89
0.53
1.27
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.10
2.00
1.33
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.16
1.88
1.50
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
1.00
2.14
1.14
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (30%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
49.5%
Under 1.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
8.2%
Under 3.5
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
28.3%
No
71.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
20.8%
1-0
20.6%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
12.0%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
6.3%
3-0
4.4%
1-2
2.9%
Montana goals ↓
Ludogorets II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
21%
9.1%
2.7%
0.5%
0.1%
1
21%
12%
2.9%
0.5%
0.1%
2
12%
6.3%
1.6%
0.3%
0.0%
3
4.4%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montana goals (down), columns = Ludogorets II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Montana is 0.43 points better than Ludogorets II in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Montana is 1.00 goals better than Ludogorets II in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Montana and Ludogorets II are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Montana or Draw
83.8%
Avg Implied -
49%
35%
16%
covers Montana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montana or Ludogorets II
65.0%
Avg Implied -
49%
35%
16%
covers Montana + Ludogorets II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ludogorets II
51.2%
Avg Implied -
49%
35%
16%
covers Draw + Ludogorets II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Montana over/under 0.5
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 1.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5
Over
40.6%
Under
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Montana, so a minus line means Montana give that many goals of a start and Ludogorets II receive them. At -1, Montana must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Montana win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Montana)
Montana -2
6.8%
Draw -2
14.5%
Ludogorets II +2
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Montana)
Montana -1
21.3%
Draw -1
27.5%
Ludogorets II +1
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Montana)
Montana +1
83.8%
Draw +1
12.4%
Ludogorets II -1
3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Montana)
Montana +2
96.2%
Draw +2
3.2%
Ludogorets II -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Montana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.36
0.79
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.38
0.44
0.33
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.20
0.80
0.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.58
1.12
0.88
0.18
0.36
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.64
1.29
0.71
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Montana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Montana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.50
0.50
0.19
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.25
0.75
0.44
0.56
0.13
0.87
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Ludogorets II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ludogorets II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.50
0.80
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.58
0.75
0.62
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Montana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ludogorets II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
100.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS No
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Montana · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Boris Dimitrov18%
Philip Ejike15%
Jorginho Soares8%
Ivan Kokonov6%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Anton Tungarov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
David Malembana0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Solomon James0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Kaloyan Strinski0%
Vitinho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Berhane50%
Kaloyan Strinski40%
Christopher Acheampong36%
Vitinho25%
Kostadin Iliev23%
Martin Mihaylov22%
Tomás Azevedo21%
David Carmona17%
Petar Atanasov17%
Márcio Rosa15%
Solomon James14%
Boris Dimitrov14%
Vladislav Tsekov12%
Nikola Borisov12%
Ivaylo Markov10%
Philip Ejike10%
Ilias Iliadis9%
Anton Tungarov9%
Vajebah Sakor8%
Vasil Simeonov8%
Angelos Tsingaras8%
Dimitar Burov6%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
David Malembana0%
Albin Linnér0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Petar Andreev0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Malembana20%
Solomon James14%
Martin Mihaylov11%
Boris Dimitrov5%
Anton Tungarov4%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Philip Ejike0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Kaloyan Strinski0%
Vitinho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Malembana20%
Philip Ejike15%
Umaro Baldé11%
Kaloyan Strinski10%
Boris Dimitrov9%
Anton Tungarov4%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Solomon James0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Vitinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Montana and Ludogorets II have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Montana and Ludogorets II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Montana and Ludogorets II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Montana and Ludogorets II have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Marek
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad