Montana and Marek face off in the Bulgaria: Second League on August 16. Recent form has seen Montana come off a defeat, while Marek is after 2 straight defeats. Defensively, Montana has conceded 1.22 goals on average at home, while Marek concedes 1.3 goals away from home against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win, with a 49% chance of Montana emerging victorious, a 34% chance of a draw, and a 17% chance of Marek winning. The expected total number of goals is 1.7, with the most likely score being 1-0, occurring 19.6% of the time.
Montana's home scoring average is 0.67 goals, while Marek's away scoring average is 0.5 goals against similar opponents. The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a 90.3% probability. Additionally, the Under 2.5 goals is the model's selection, with a 75.1% probability. Montana has a 49% chance of winning, a 34% chance of a draw, and a 17% chance of losing. The model's selections are the Under 3.5 goals (90.3%), the Under 2.5 goals (75.1%), and the Home win (49%).
Results analysis
The win extends Montana's run of positive form, having come off a win and boasting a recent record of WLWDL. In the end, the final score was 1-0, a result that reflected the actual outcome of the match. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's call was also vindicated by the low-scoring nature of the game, with both the Under 3.5 and Under 2.5 selections hitting, boasting probabilities of 90.3% and 75.1% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Montana win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied 53.9% · @ 1.67
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
William Hil
1.70
Dafabet
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Draw✗ Miss
33.9%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.33
Edge
+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.35
Marek win✗ Miss
16.7%
Avg Implied 19.1% · @ 4.70
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.90
1xBet
4.89
William Hil
4.80
888Sport
4.80
BetVictor
4.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Montana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.50
0.71
1.57
0.69
1.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.60
0.25
2.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
1.25
0.90
1.20
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
1.31
0.77
0.59
1.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.90
1.13
1.31
0.77
0.59
1.41
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 1 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
52.6%
@ 1.33-15.7%
Under 1.5
47.4%
@ 2.85+15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.35
1xBet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
Under
Unibet
2.90
888Sport
2.90
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.81
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.9%
@ 2.07-19.3%
Under 2.5
75.1%
@ 1.64+19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.11
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Under
Bet365
1.70
888Sport
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
9.7%
@ 3.60-15.5%
Under 3.5
90.3%
@ 1.21+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.80
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Unibet
3.45
Under
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
30.7%
@ 1.97-15.6%
No
69.3%
@ 1.70+15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Unibet
1.96
888Sport
1.95
No
888Sport
1.73
William Hil
1.73
BetVictor
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0 ✓
19.6%@ 5.44+12.5%
0-0
19.0%@ 7.93+14.2%
1-1
12.8%@ 6.20+6.6%
2-0
12.0%@ 6.83+6.4%
0-1
8.9%@ 10.25+5.1%
2-1
6.8%@ 7.53+1.7%
3-0
4.7%@ 11.82+1.4%
1-2
3.3%@ 13.88+0.5%
Montana goals ↓
Marek goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
19%
8.9%
2.8%
0.5%
0.1%
1
20%
13%
3.3%
0.6%
0.1%
2
12%
6.8%
1.9%
0.4%
0.0%
3
4.7%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
4
1.4%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Montana goals (down), columns = Marek goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vihren
2.14
CSKA Sofia II
2.00
Fratria
2.00
Yantra 2019
1.86
Montana
1.57
Beroe
1.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.57
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Marek
1.43
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Rilski Sportist
1.29
Ludogorets II
1.14
Hebar 1918
1.14
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Sportist Svoge
0.86
Dobrudzha
0.71
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.00
Montana is 0.14 points better than Marek in terms of average points per game (1.57 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
CSKA Sofia II
2.14
Vihren
2.14
Nesebar
1.86
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.86
Montana
1.71
Hebar 1918
1.71
Beroe
1.29
Fratria
1.29
Yantra 2019
1.29
Marek
1.00
Spartak Pleven
1.00
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
1.00
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.00
Dobrudzha
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Ludogorets II
0.71
Sportist Svoge
0.57
Pirin Blagoevgrad
0.43
Montana is 0.71 goals better than Marek in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Fratria
0.57
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
0.57
Marek
0.86
Beroe
0.86
Sportist Svoge
0.86
CSKA Sofia II
1.00
Yantra 2019
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.00
Vihren
1.00
Montana
1.14
Ludogorets II
1.14
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
1.29
Dobrudzha
1.43
Nesebar
1.43
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.57
Hebar 1918
1.86
Spartak Pleven
2.00
Pirin Blagoevgrad
3.43
Montana is 0.29 goals worse than Marek in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Montana or Draw✓ Hit
83.3%
Avg Implied -
49%
34%
17%
covers Montana + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montana or Marek✓ Hit
66.1%
Avg Implied -
49%
34%
17%
covers Montana + Marek
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Marek✗ Miss
50.6%
Avg Implied -
49%
34%
17%
covers Draw + Marek
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Montana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.36
1.00
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
2.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.62
0.38
0.35
0.76
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.47
0.60
0.62
0.38
0.35
0.76
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Montana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Montana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.73
0.36
0.57
0.19
0.88
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.60
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.25
0.75
0.40
0.60
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Marek) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Marek
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.53
0.69
0.38
0.24
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.43
0.53
0.69
0.38
0.24
0.65
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Montana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Montana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marek over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
90.3%
1.21
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
+15.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
75.1%
1.64
Bet365
1.70
888Sport
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
+19.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Montana · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Boris Dimitrov18%
Philip Ejike15%
Jorginho Soares8%
Ivan Kokonov6%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Anton Tungarov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
David Malembana0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Solomon James0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Kaloyan Strinski0%
Vitinho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joel Berhane50%
Kaloyan Strinski40%
Christopher Acheampong36%
Vitinho25%
Kostadin Iliev23%
Martin Mihaylov22%
Tomás Azevedo21%
David Carmona17%
Petar Atanasov17%
Márcio Rosa15%
Solomon James14%
Boris Dimitrov14%
Vladislav Tsekov12%
Nikola Borisov12%
Ivaylo Markov10%
Philip Ejike10%
Ilias Iliadis9%
Anton Tungarov9%
Vajebah Sakor8%
Vasil Simeonov8%
Angelos Tsingaras8%
Dimitar Burov6%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
David Malembana0%
Albin Linnér0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Petar Andreev0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Malembana20%
Solomon James14%
Martin Mihaylov11%
Boris Dimitrov5%
Anton Tungarov4%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Umaro Baldé0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Philip Ejike0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Kaloyan Strinski0%
Vitinho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Malembana20%
Philip Ejike15%
Umaro Baldé11%
Kaloyan Strinski10%
Boris Dimitrov9%
Anton Tungarov4%
Ivaylo Markov0%
Vladislav Tsekov0%
Ivan Kokonov0%
Dimitar Burov0%
Aleksandar Todorov0%
Angelos Tsingaras0%
Vajebah Sakor0%
Tomás Azevedo0%
Márcio Rosa0%
David Carmona0%
Albin Linnér0%
Vasil Simeonov0%
Nikola Borisov0%
Joel Berhane0%
Kostadin Iliev0%
Martin Mihaylov0%
Ilias Iliadis0%
Viktor Dobrev0%
Jorginho Soares0%
Christopher Acheampong0%
Petar Andreev0%
Solomon James0%
Ibrahim Beji Muhammad0%
Petar Atanasov0%
Vitinho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (22)
€3m
Y2 (18)
€3m
H1 (19)
€3m
VIH (18)
€2m
EVT (23)
€2m
C1B (19)
€2m
CSI (20)
€2m
PB (17)
€2m
MON (17)
€2m
MAR (19)
€2m
BER (13)
€2m
LGO (15)
€1m
SP (19)
€1m
DOB (10)
€1m
LI (13)
€1m
SS (12)
€1m
Montana and Marek have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
H1 (8)
€2m
VIH (9)
€1m
Y2 (6)
€1m
EVT (12)
€1m
FRA (6)
€1m
MON (8)
€1m
C1B (4)
€1m
BER (5)
€1m
CSI (8)
€1m
SP (8)
€1m
LI (6)
€1m
DOB (5)
€0m
PB (5)
€0m
MAR (4)
€0m
SS (5)
€0m
LGO (4)
€0m
Montana and Marek have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRA (4)
€1m
C1B (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
VIH (3)
€1m
MAR (6)
€1m
EVT (3)
€0m
LGO (3)
€0m
DOB (3)
€0m
CSI (3)
€0m
Y2 (2)
€0m
MON (3)
€0m
SP (5)
€0m
LI (3)
€0m
H1 (2)
€0m
BER (2)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
Montana and Marek have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
Y2 (10)
€2m
FRA (12)
€1m
H1 (9)
€1m
EVT (8)
€1m
CSI (9)
€1m
BER (6)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
LGO (8)
€1m
C1B (9)
€1m
VIH (6)
€1m
MON (6)
€1m
PB (6)
€1m
SP (6)
€0m
LI (4)
€0m
DOB (2)
€0m
SS (3)
€0m
Montana and Marek have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Bulgaria: Second League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bulgaria: Second League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Fratria
Yantra 2019
Beroe
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Nesebar
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Rilski Sportist
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Dobrudzha
Pirin Blagoevgrad