Montana is coming off a win against Nesebar, where they secured a 3-1 victory, and they will be looking to build on that momentum. However, the model disagrees with the market on the selection of Under 3.5, which has an 83.4% probability of occurring, and this represents a 12% edge for the model.
The model predicts a home win, with a 51% probability, making it the favourite match result. The expected total goals is 2.1, and the most likely score is 1-0, with a 15.3% probability.
At home, Montana has a strong defensive record, conceding 1 goal on average, while scoring 0 goals. Away from home, Nesebar has struggled to score, averaging 0.5 goals, but they have conceded 1.57 goals on average against stronger opponents.
The model's selection for Under 3.5 has a 83.4% probability, and this represents a 12% edge for the model. The Under 3.5 selection has a 83.4% probability. The model's selection for Home win has a 51% probability, while the selection for Away win has a 19% probability, and the selection for Draw has a 30% probability. Other model selections include Home win (51%), Draw (30%), and Away win (19%).
Montana's win extends their run, coming off a win against Nesebar, who are after 2 straight defeats. The final score was 3-1 in favour of the home team. The model's selection, a Home win, was correct. The pre-match favourite was indeed Home win, with a probability of 51%. The model's call was correct, as the actual result was a Home win.
The model's selection of Home win also came with a probability of 51%. Under 3.5, the model's suggested pick, had a probability of 83.4% but missed.
Montana| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 1.53 | 0.57 | 1.64 | 0.56 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 2.67 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.57 | 1.22 | 0.70 | 1.30 | 0.46 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
Nesebar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.43 | 1.71 | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.52 | 1.48 | 0.55 | 1.73 | 0.50 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Nesebar goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 13% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 15% | 13% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Montana| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.17 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Nesebar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.22 | 0.70 | 0.18 | 0.82 | 0.25 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Montana| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.23 | 0.80 | 0.29 | 0.64 | 0.19 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.22 | 0.78 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.15 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Nesebar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.30 | 0.78 | 0.36 | 0.91 | 0.25 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 83.4% | 1.27 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.25 | +12.0% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 28/09/24 | H | 2-0 |
Montana| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 05/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 08/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
Nesebar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 24/05/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 11/05/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/05/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/05/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 26/04/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 13/04/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 06/04/25 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Vihren | 7 | 15 | 57% | 2.1 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 3.1 | 100% | 43% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 7 | 14 | 57% | 2.0 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 3.1 | 71% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Fratria | 7 | 14 | 57% | 2.0 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 1.9 | 57% | 14% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | - |
| 4 | Yantra 2019 | 7 | 13 | 57% | 1.9 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 2.3 | 71% | 29% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Montana | 7 | 11 | 43% | 1.6 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 2.9 | 71% | 71% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Beroe | 7 | 11 | 43% | 1.6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 2.1 | 71% | 43% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | - |
| 7 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 7 | 11 | 43% | 1.6 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 1.6 | 43% | 14% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | - |
| 8 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 7 | 11 | 43% | 1.6 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 3.4 | 86% | 71% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Nesebar | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 3.3 | 71% | 43% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Marek | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 1.9 | 29% | 29% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | - |
| 11 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 7 | 10 | 43% | 1.4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 2.3 | 86% | 43% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Rilski Sportist | 7 | 9 | 29% | 1.3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.0 | 57% | 43% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 13 | Hebar 1918 | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 3.6 | 86% | 57% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | - |
| 14 | Ludogorets II | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 1.9 | 71% | 14% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 15 | Spartak Pleven | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 3.0 | 86% | 57% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 7 | 6 | 14% | 0.9 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1.4 | 29% | 29% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 7 | 5 | 14% | 0.7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2.4 | 57% | 29% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 7 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 3 | 24 | -21 | 3.9 | 86% | 71% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | 3.4 | - |