This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.03
2.07
1.13
1.07
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
1.25
1.00
3.00
0.33
0.20
1.40
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
1.05
1.91
1.36
1.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.4%
@ 1.99-4.9%
Under 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.79+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.6%
1-0
9.8%
0-1 ✓
9.6%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.4%
Monza goals ↓
Lecce goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.6%
6.4%
2.5%
0.7%
1
9.8%
14%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.7%
7.9%
4.6%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.7%
3.1%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Monza goals (down), columns = Lecce goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lecce
1.87
Cremonese
1.82
Pisa
1.76
Monza
1.76
Brescia
1.74
Ascoli
1.71
Benevento
1.66
Frosinone
1.53
Perugia
1.53
Ternana
1.42
Cittadella
1.37
Parma
1.29
Reggina
1.26
Como
1.24
Spal
1.11
Cosenza
0.92
Alessandria
0.89
Vicenza Virtus
0.89
Crotone
0.68
Pordenone
0.47
Monza is 0.11 points worse than Lecce in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benevento
1.63
Monza
1.58
Lecce
1.55
Frosinone
1.53
Ternana
1.53
Cremonese
1.50
Brescia
1.45
Ascoli
1.37
Como
1.29
Pisa
1.26
Parma
1.26
Spal
1.21
Crotone
1.08
Perugia
1.05
Cittadella
1.00
Vicenza Virtus
1.00
Alessandria
0.97
Cosenza
0.95
Reggina
0.82
Pordenone
0.76
Monza is 0.03 goals better than Lecce in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lecce
0.82
Perugia
0.84
Pisa
0.92
Brescia
0.92
Cittadella
0.95
Monza
1.00
Cremonese
1.03
Benevento
1.03
Ascoli
1.11
Parma
1.13
Frosinone
1.18
Reggina
1.29
Spal
1.42
Como
1.42
Alessandria
1.55
Cosenza
1.55
Vicenza Virtus
1.55
Ternana
1.61
Crotone
1.61
Pordenone
1.87
Monza is 0.18 goals worse than Lecce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.82).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Monza
For 6.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 3.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 17.2 · Total 32.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lecce
For 7.5 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.0 · Against 16.9 · Total 32.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.6
9.5
5.0
4.4
5.7
31.9
31.2
32.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.3
10.3
8.0
5.6
5.1
6.3
31.0
32.9
28.6
vs Weaker (34)
10.4
10.8
10.1
4.8
3.9
5.5
32.4
30.3
34.2
% over line
48%
52%
44%
80%
76%
84%
96%
96%
96%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
20%
24%
16%
4%
4%
4%
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.4
5.0
4.6
5.3
29.1
28.2
30.0
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
6.0
10.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.5
24.0
29.0
vs Similar (14)
9.6
10.2
9.2
5.1
4.6
5.3
28.8
28.8
28.8
vs Weaker (34)
9.9
10.2
9.5
5.0
4.6
5.4
29.4
28.3
30.7
% over line
52%
56%
48%
72%
68%
76%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
28%
32%
24%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Brescia
11.2
Pisa
11.1
Benevento
11.0
Crotone
10.8
Alessandria
10.6
Spal
10.6
Reggina
10.4
Frosinone
10.3
Cittadella
10.2
Como
10.1
Ascoli
10.1
Monza
10.1
Ternana
10.0
Vicenza Virtus
9.8
Parma
9.8
Pordenone
9.7
Cremonese
9.7
Lecce
9.7
Perugia
9.5
Cosenza
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pordenone
6.0
Ascoli
6.0
Perugia
5.9
Cittadella
5.8
Reggina
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.5
Pisa
5.5
Frosinone
5.3
Cremonese
5.2
Como
5.2
Monza
5.0
Spal
5.0
Alessandria
5.0
Parma
5.0
Cosenza
5.0
Lecce
5.0
Benevento
4.7
Brescia
4.7
Crotone
4.6
Ternana
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reggina
33.5
Pordenone
33.1
Perugia
33.0
Pisa
32.9
Cittadella
32.8
Alessandria
32.7
Ascoli
32.2
Monza
31.9
Spal
31.5
Vicenza Virtus
31.3
Frosinone
31.0
Cremonese
30.3
Como
30.2
Ternana
29.7
Lecce
29.1
Benevento
29.0
Parma
28.5
Crotone
28.3
Cosenza
27.5
Brescia
27.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.2%
Under 3.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.1%
Under 21.5
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Monza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.30
0.93
0.13
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.40
1.00
0.17
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.25
0.89
0.11
0.64
0.36
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.40
0.60
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.25
2.00
0.33
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (20)
1.00
0.45
1.27
0.64
0.67
0.22
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Monza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.83
1.00
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.00
0.55
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.45
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Lecce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lecce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.53
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.75
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.20
vs Weaker (20)
0.75
0.60
0.64
0.73
0.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lecce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Monza · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gustavo Varela100%
Andrea Colpani33%
Omari Forson33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lorenzo Lucchesi67%
Eddy Kouadio33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Mathis Mout0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Cutrone33%
Ricardo Mangas33%
Mathis Mout33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustavo Varela67%
Patrick Cutrone33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
Lecce · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olaf Gorter33%
Tiago Gabriel33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Danilo Veiga33%
Kialonda Gaspar33%
Oumar Ngom33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lassana Coulibaly33%
Willem Geubbels0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Nikola Štulić0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Willem Geubbels33%
Nikola Štulić33%
Lassana Coulibaly0%
Santiago Pierotti0%
N'Dri Konan0%
Wladimiro Falcone0%
Youssef Maleh0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Kialonda Gaspar0%
Oumar Ngom0%
Olaf Gorter0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (34)
€488m
PAR (28)
€142m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
PIS (36)
€71m
MON (29)
€70m
CRE (30)
€49m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Monza's squad is €2m less valuable than Lecce's (€70m vs €72m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
PIS (13)
€24m
LEC (9)
€20m
CRE (7)
€12m
ASC (11)
€5m
BEN (8)
€4m
VV (6)
€2m
Monza's attack is €6m more valuable than Lecce's (€26m vs €20m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
FRO (11)
€27m
PIS (9)
€26m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
CRE (10)
€15m
VV (12)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
Monza's midfield is €8m more valuable than Lecce's (€24m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (14)
€144m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
MON (11)
€20m
BEN (13)
€5m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
Monza's defence is €17m less valuable than Lecce's (€20m vs €37m).
Italy: Serie B 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
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Cremonese
Pisa
Brescia
Ascoli
Benevento
Frosinone
Perugia
Ternana
Cittadella
Parma
Reggina
Como
Spal
Cosenza
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