PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Mornar vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 22/10/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 0-1
Mornar
Mornar
Vs
36%
26%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mornar win✗ Miss
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✓ Hit
37.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L22D13L10W00D02L13L22D11DH·SUT06/08A·ARS16/08H·JED20/08A·JEZ27/08H·PET04/09H·ISK11/09A·BUD17/09A·DEČ01/10H·RUD09/10A·SUT16/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.921.501.171.000.672.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.781.440.750.500.802.20
vs Weaker (3)1.331.672.002.000.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L21W32W04L42W02L12L21W22D11DA·JEZ06/08H·MOR16/08A·ISK20/08H·BUD28/08A·DEČ03/09H·RUD11/09A·SUT17/09A·PET01/10A·JED09/10H·JEZ15/10
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.421.750.671.672.171.83
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.004.001.002.00
vs Similar (9)1.781.441.001.002.401.80
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %8% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1 ✓
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
1-0
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
0-2
5.7%
Mornar goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
06.0%6.4%5.7%2.9%1.1%
16.2%12%8.5%4.3%1.7%
25.4%8.3%6.3%3.2%1.2%
32.7%4.1%3.1%1.6%0.6%
41.0%1.5%1.2%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mornar goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.94
Sutjeska
1.94
Arsenal Tivat
1.39
Dečić
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.31
Mornar
1.26
Petrovac
1.25
Jezero
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.11
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.86
Kom
0.50
Berane
0.00
Mornar is 0.13 points worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
2.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Petrovac
1.39
Dečić
1.22
Jedinstvo
1.19
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.03
Kom
1.00
Jezero
0.97
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.92
Mornar
0.89
Berane
0.00
Mornar is 0.19 goals worse than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sutjeska
0.94
Buducnost Podgorica
1.03
Dečić
1.03
Jezero
1.06
Mornar
1.08
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.50
Kom
1.50
Petrovac
1.58
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.61
Berane
2.00
Mornar is 0.00 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.08).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D01L10W00D01L11D11D00DH·SUT06/08A·ARS16/08H·JED20/08A·JEZ27/08H·PET04/09H·ISK11/09A·BUD17/09A·DEČ01/10H·RUD09/10A·SUT16/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.420.420.670.330.170.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.750.250.200.60
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %58% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W01L30W02L01L10W22D10WA·JEZ06/08H·MOR16/08A·ISK20/08H·BUD28/08A·DEČ03/09H·RUD11/09A·SUT17/09A·PET01/10A·JED09/10H·JEZ15/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.580.170.671.330.50
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)1.000.330.250.251.600.40
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %58% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L22D12L00D00D01L02L11D11DH·SUT06/08A·ARS16/08H·JED20/08A·JEZ27/08H·PET04/09H·ISK11/09A·BUD17/09A·DEČ01/10H·RUD09/10A·SUT16/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.080.500.670.501.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.331.000.000.250.601.60
vs Weaker (3)1.001.331.501.500.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L21W22D03L12L00D11D11D00D01LA·JEZ06/08H·MOR16/08A·ISK20/08H·BUD28/08A·DEČ03/09H·RUD11/09A·SUT17/09A·PET01/10A·JED09/10H·JEZ15/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.170.501.000.831.33
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.003.001.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.781.110.750.750.801.40
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %25% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Mornar's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Mornar and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Mornar and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Mornar's defence is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MOR wins
0
Draws
1
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mornar vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from MOR
DateH/AGameScore
16/08/22AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR2-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/10/22ASutjeska Vs MOR1-1
09/10/22HMOR Vs Rudar (Montenegro)2-2
01/10/22ADečić Vs MOR3-1
17/09/22ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MOR2-0
11/09/22HMOR Vs Iskra (Montenegro)0-0
04/09/22HMOR Vs Petrovac1-0
27/08/22AJezero Vs MOR3-1
20/08/22HMOR Vs Jedinstvo2-2
16/08/22AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR2-1
06/08/22HMOR Vs Sutjeska2-1

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22HAT Vs Jezero1-1
09/10/22AJedinstvo Vs AT2-2
01/10/22APetrovac Vs AT1-2
17/09/22ASutjeska Vs AT2-1
11/09/22HAT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)0-2
03/09/22ADečić Vs AT2-4
28/08/22HAT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-4
20/08/22AIskra (Montenegro) Vs AT2-3
16/08/22HAT Vs Mornar2-1
06/08/22AJezero Vs AT2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDD0.83
HomeWDWDD1.50
AwayLLLLD0.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%33%0%
AVG goals2.422.172.67
Over 1.5 %67%50%83%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %33%33%33%
Scored0.921.170.67
Conceded1.501.002.00
BTTS58%50%67%
Clean Sheet17%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWDD1.42
HomeWWLLD1.17
AwayWWLWD1.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%33%50%
AVG goals3.172.334.00
Over 1.5 %92%83%100%
Over 2.5 %67%33%100%
Over 3.5 %33%17%50%
Scored1.420.672.17
Conceded1.751.671.83
BTTS67%33%100%
Clean Sheet8%17%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3670
56%
1.9
7534+41
3.0
86%
64%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.9
-
2Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3670
56%
1.9
6137+24
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.71.0
-
3DečićDečić3650
33%
1.4
4437+7
2.2
67%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
5MornarMornar3848
34%
1.3
3441-7
2.0
53%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
6JedinstvoJedinstvo3647
36%
1.3
4354-11
2.7
69%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
7PetrovacPetrovac3645
31%
1.2
5057-7
3.0
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
8JezeroJezero3643
28%
1.2
3538-3
2.0
61%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.1
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3842
26%
1.1
3953-14
2.4
63%
50%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
10Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3631
19%
0.9
3358-25
2.5
78%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
11KomKom21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12BeraneBerane20
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

← all matches