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Mornar vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 21/02/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-2
Mornar
Mornar
Vs
60%
26%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mornar win✗ Miss
59.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✓ Hit
14.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W10W31W31W00D02L31W12L10WH·SUT01/10A·ARS08/10H·DEČ18/10A·MLA26/10H·JED01/11H·BOK09/11A·BUD22/11H·PET30/11A·JEZ06/12A·SUT10/12
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.401.431.071.121.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.261.331.311.081.211.57
vs Weaker (3)1.332.003.001.000.502.50
Clean sheet %23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L24L32W02L00D02L24L00D00DA·JED01/10H·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11A·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.301.200.600.602.00
vs Stronger (6)0.672.000.670.330.673.67
vs Similar (22)0.861.231.090.730.641.73
vs Weaker (2)2.000.004.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.0%
Under 2.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.4%
No
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.5%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
5.4%
0-1
5.2%
Mornar goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
09.5%5.2%2.4%0.6%0.1%
113%12%4.1%1.0%0.2%
213%9.4%3.5%0.9%0.2%
37.2%5.4%2.0%0.5%0.1%
43.1%2.3%0.9%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mornar goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Petrovac
1.42
Dečić
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Mladost DG
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Jedinstvo
0.97
Grbalj
0.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.00
Mornar is 0.64 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Jedinstvo
0.83
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.50
Grbalj
0.00
Mornar is 0.42 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Grbalj
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Jedinstvo
1.36
Mladost DG
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
4.00
Mornar is 0.47 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.81 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D20W01L00D01L01L00D10WH·SUT01/10A·ARS08/10H·DEČ18/10A·MLA26/10H·JED01/11H·BOK09/11A·BUD22/11H·PET30/11A·JEZ06/12A·SUT10/12
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.570.640.560.38
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.590.410.620.620.570.21
vs Weaker (3)0.331.330.001.000.501.50
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D11D21W01L00D02L12L00D00DA·JED01/10H·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11A·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.730.270.400.67
vs Stronger (6)0.170.500.000.330.330.67
vs Similar (22)0.590.500.730.270.450.73
vs Weaker (2)1.500.003.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W11D30W00D01L30W12L00DH·SUT01/10A·ARS08/10H·DEČ18/10A·MLA26/10H·JED01/11H·BOK09/11A·BUD22/11H·PET30/11A·JEZ06/12A·SUT10/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.900.860.430.561.31
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.670.930.690.460.641.36
vs Weaker (3)1.000.673.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L13L11D01L00D00D12L00D00DA·JED01/10H·MOR08/10A·BUD18/10H·PET29/10A·JEZ02/11H·SUT09/11A·BOK22/11A·DEČ30/11H·MLA06/12H·JED10/12
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.830.470.330.201.33
vs Stronger (6)0.501.500.670.000.333.00
vs Similar (22)0.270.730.360.450.181.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
GRB (2)
€0m
Mornar's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Mornar and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
Mornar and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
Mornar's defence is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
MOR wins
3
Draws
1
AT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mornar vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from MOR
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/25AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR0-1
10/08/25HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat2-2
14/05/25AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR1-1
16/03/25HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat1-0
10/11/24AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR4-0
14/09/24HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat4-0
21/04/24AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR1-2
28/02/24HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/25ASutjeska Vs MOR0-1
06/12/25AJezero Vs MOR2-1
30/11/25HMOR Vs Petrovac3-1
22/11/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MOR2-0
09/11/25HMOR Vs Bokelj0-0
01/11/25HMOR Vs Jedinstvo3-1
26/10/25AMladost DG Vs MOR1-3
18/10/25HMOR Vs Dečić1-0
08/10/25AArsenal Tivat Vs MOR0-1
01/10/25HMOR Vs Sutjeska1-0

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/12/25HAT Vs Jedinstvo0-0
06/12/25HAT Vs Mladost DG0-0
30/11/25ADečić Vs AT4-2
22/11/25ABokelj Vs AT2-0
09/11/25HAT Vs Sutjeska0-0
02/11/25AJezero Vs AT2-0
29/10/25HAT Vs Petrovac3-2
18/10/25ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT4-2
08/10/25HAT Vs Mornar0-1
01/10/25AJedinstvo Vs AT0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.50
HomeWWWDW1.71
AwayWWLLW1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals2.642.382.88
Over 1.5 %82%75%88%
Over 2.5 %48%38%58%
Over 3.5 %22%25%19%
Scored1.281.421.15
Conceded1.360.961.73
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet24%29%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDD1.10
HomeLWDDD1.52
AwayDLLLL0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%36%12%
AVG goals2.101.922.28
Over 1.5 %60%52%68%
Over 2.5 %32%32%32%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored0.881.120.64
Conceded1.220.801.64
BTTS36%40%32%
Clean Sheet40%48%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3672
61%
2.0
6136+25
2.7
72%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.71.0
-
2MornarMornar3669
56%
1.9
5129+22
2.2
69%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.40.8
-
3PetrovacPetrovac3651
36%
1.4
4436+8
2.2
67%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4DečićDečić3651
39%
1.4
4345-2
2.4
64%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.2
-
5Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3648
36%
1.3
3635+1
2.0
61%
25%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.01.0
-
6JezeroJezero3847
32%
1.2
4649-3
2.5
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
7Mladost DGMladost DG3646
39%
1.3
4954-5
2.9
64%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3646
33%
1.3
3646-10
2.3
64%
39%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.01.3
-
9BokeljBokelj3840
24%
1.1
4048-8
2.3
68%
39%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.3
-
10JedinstvoJedinstvo3635
25%
1.0
3049-19
2.2
58%
36%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.4
-
11GrbaljGrbalj21
0%
0.5
02-2
1.0
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
12Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
18-7
4.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.54.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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