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Mornar vs Sutjeska Result & Analysis

Date: 23/02/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 3-2
Mornar
Mornar
Vs
28%
31%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mornar win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska win✗ Miss
41.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D11D01L01L10W21W12L12L10W10WH·RUD09/10A·SUT16/10H·ARS22/10A·JED30/10H·JEZ06/11A·PET12/11A·ISK26/11H·BUD03/12H·DEČ10/12A·RUD18/02
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.251.000.900.801.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.871.270.750.621.002.00
vs Weaker (5)1.001.202.002.000.330.67
Clean sheet %25% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D21W01L21W40W20W22D40W42WA·JEZ09/10H·MOR16/10A·ISK22/10H·BUD30/10A·DEČ06/11H·RUD12/11H·PET27/11A·ARS03/12A·JED07/12H·JEZ18/02
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.790.792.250.501.331.08
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.500.751.500.331.501.17
vs Weaker (10)2.500.703.600.601.400.80
Clean sheet %42% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.9%
Under 3.5
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
11.4%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
8.3%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
5.2%
Mornar goals ↓
Sutjeska goals →
01234
011%12%8.3%3.5%1.1%
18.9%14%8.4%3.6%1.1%
25.2%6.6%4.2%1.8%0.6%
31.8%2.2%1.4%0.6%0.2%
40.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mornar goals (down), columns = Sutjeska goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.94
Sutjeska
1.94
Arsenal Tivat
1.39
Dečić
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.31
Mornar
1.26
Petrovac
1.25
Jezero
1.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.11
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.86
Kom
0.50
Berane
0.00
Mornar is 0.68 points worse than Sutjeska in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.94).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
2.08
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Petrovac
1.39
Dečić
1.22
Jedinstvo
1.19
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.03
Kom
1.00
Jezero
0.97
Iskra (Montenegro)
0.92
Mornar
0.89
Berane
0.00
Mornar is 1.19 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 2.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sutjeska
0.94
Buducnost Podgorica
1.03
Dečić
1.03
Jezero
1.06
Mornar
1.08
Arsenal Tivat
1.08
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.50
Kom
1.50
Petrovac
1.58
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.61
Berane
2.00
Mornar is 0.13 goals worse than Sutjeska in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.94).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D00D00D00D10W01L11D01L00D00DH·RUD09/10A·SUT16/10H·ARS22/10A·JED30/10H·JEZ06/11A·PET12/11A·ISK26/11H·BUD03/12H·DEČ10/12A·RUD18/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.400.500.300.200.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.400.470.500.250.290.71
vs Weaker (5)0.200.200.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W01L11D20W00D10W10W21WA·JEZ09/10H·MOR16/10A·ISK22/10H·BUD30/10A·DEČ06/11H·RUD12/11H·PET27/11A·ARS03/12A·JED07/12H·JEZ18/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.250.920.170.750.33
vs Stronger (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.330.330.171.000.50
vs Weaker (10)1.200.201.800.200.600.20
Clean sheet %79% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D01L01L00D20W01L11D10W10WH·RUD09/10A·SUT16/10H·ARS22/10A·JED30/10H·JEZ06/11A·PET12/11A·ISK26/11H·BUD03/12H·DEČ10/12A·RUD18/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.850.500.600.601.10
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.470.800.250.380.711.29
vs Weaker (5)0.801.001.501.500.330.67
Clean sheet %35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutjeska) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SutjeskaSutjeska

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D01L00D10W20W20W12L30W21WA·JEZ09/10H·MOR16/10A·ISK22/10H·BUD30/10A·DEČ06/11H·RUD12/11H·PET27/11A·ARS03/12A·JED07/12H·JEZ18/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.541.330.330.580.75
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.421.170.170.500.67
vs Weaker (10)1.300.501.800.400.800.60
Clean sheet %58% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutjeska over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.1%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Mornar's squad is €1m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€4m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Mornar's attack is €1m less valuable than Sutjeska's (€1m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
BER (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
Mornar and Sutjeska have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
BER (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
Mornar and Sutjeska have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
MOR wins
1
Draws
0
SUT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mornar vs Sutjeska · H/A from MOR
DateH/AGameScore
16/10/22ASutjeska Vs MOR1-1
06/08/22HMOR Vs Sutjeska2-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/23ARudar (Montenegro) Vs MOR0-1
10/12/22HMOR Vs Dečić1-0
03/12/22HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-2
26/11/22AIskra (Montenegro) Vs MOR2-1
12/11/22APetrovac Vs MOR1-2
06/11/22HMOR Vs Jezero1-0
30/10/22AJedinstvo Vs MOR1-0
22/10/22HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat0-1
16/10/22ASutjeska Vs MOR1-1
09/10/22HMOR Vs Rudar (Montenegro)2-2

SutjeskaSutjeska

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/02/23HSUT Vs Jezero4-2
07/12/22AJedinstvo Vs SUT0-4
03/12/22AArsenal Tivat Vs SUT2-2
27/11/22HSUT Vs Petrovac2-0
12/11/22HSUT Vs Rudar (Montenegro)4-0
06/11/22ADečić Vs SUT1-2
30/10/22HSUT Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-1
22/10/22AIskra (Montenegro) Vs SUT1-2
16/10/22HSUT Vs Mornar1-1
09/10/22AJezero Vs SUT1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.10
HomeDLWLW1.50
AwayDLWLW0.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%40%20%
AVG goals2.151.902.40
Over 1.5 %55%40%70%
Over 2.5 %45%40%50%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored0.901.000.80
Conceded1.250.901.60
BTTS50%40%60%
Clean Sheet25%40%10%
Corners---
Cards---
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.71
HomeDLWWW2.17
AwayLWWDW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%67%33%
AVG goals2.582.752.42
Over 1.5 %75%75%75%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %25%25%25%
Scored1.792.251.33
Conceded0.790.501.08
BTTS33%25%42%
Clean Sheet42%58%25%
Corners6.507.006.00
Cards3.334.002.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1SutjeskaSutjeska3670
56%
1.9
7534+41
3.0
86%
64%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.10.9
-
2Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3670
56%
1.9
6137+24
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1121.71.0
-
3DečićDečić3650
33%
1.4
4437+7
2.2
67%
42%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.0
-
4Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3650
36%
1.4
3939+0
2.2
58%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.11.1
-
5MornarMornar3848
34%
1.3
3441-7
2.0
53%
32%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
6JedinstvoJedinstvo3647
36%
1.3
4354-11
2.7
69%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
-
7PetrovacPetrovac3645
31%
1.2
5057-7
3.0
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.6
-
8JezeroJezero3643
28%
1.2
3538-3
2.0
61%
42%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.1
-
9Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3842
26%
1.1
3953-14
2.4
63%
50%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
10Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3631
19%
0.9
3358-25
2.5
78%
58%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
11KomKom21
0%
0.5
23-1
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
12BeraneBerane20
0%
0.0
04-4
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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