Morton hosts Arbroath in the Scotland: Championship, and recent form has been a concern for the home side. Morton suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 0-2 loss to Stenhousemuir, and have averaged 0.91 goals scored and 0.91 conceded at home against similar opponents. Arbroath, on the other hand, drew their last match against Inverness CT, averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model favours a Morton win, with a 43% chance of a home victory, 34% draw, and 23% away win. The expected total goals is 1.9, with the most likely score being 0-0 at 16.1%. The most likely score is a 0-0 draw, occurring 28% of the time.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5, with a 87.3% chance of occurring and a 12% edge. The Under 2.5 is also selected, with a 70.2% chance and a 15% edge. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 34%, and the away win percentage is 23%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Morton, the pre-match favourite with a 43 % chance, failed to secure the win, and Arbroath clinched a 1-2 victory. The model’s call was wrong. The match finished 1-2, an away win that snapped Morton’s five-match losing streak, while Arbroath’s win extended their recent form. The model’s favourite was Morton, who had a 43 % probability of triumph. The suggested picks all hit: Under 7.5 at 99.9 %, Under 6.5 at 99.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.2 %, Under 5.5 at 98.7 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1 %, and Home under 3.5 goals at 97.1 %. The game’s total of 3 goals matched the model’s most likely 2-goal prediction, but the outcome defied the home-team expectation.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Morton win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.34
Edge
+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.63
1xBet
3.47
Betano
3.45
Superbet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
Draw✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.17
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Arbroath win✓ Hit
23.3%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.08
Edge
-20.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.18
888Sport
2.15
Unibet
2.15
Dafabet
2.14
Superbet
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.77
0.71
0.79
0.94
2.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
1.69
0.77
0.85
1.00
2.54
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.13
1.07
0.87
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.70
1.25
2.00
1.17
1.50
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.89
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.2%
@ 1.34-11.1%
Under 1.5
41.8%
@ 3.01+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.15
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
29.9%
@ 2.08-14.9%
Under 2.5
70.1%
@ 1.69+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
888Sport
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.7%
@ 3.73-12.2%
Under 3.5
87.3%
@ 1.24+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.91
BetVictor
3.90
888Sport
3.90
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.7%
@ 1.83-12.7%
No
62.3%
@ 1.86+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.87
Betfair
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
No
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.1%@ 8.19+10.7%
1-0
15.6%@ 8.72+10.6%
1-1
14.3%@ 5.83+6.7%
0-1
10.1%@ 6.38+3.1%
2-0
9.7%@ 15.85+6.9%
2-1
7.4%@ 10.96+3.4%
1-2 ✓
5.0%@ 8.15-0.5%
0-2
4.4%@ 9.08-0.5%
Morton goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
10%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
5.0%
1.3%
0.2%
2
9.7%
7.4%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
3
3.7%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Morton is 0.44 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Morton is 0.25 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Morton is 0.23 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
For 4.6 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
10.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
22.6
23.0
22.2
vs Stronger (4)
10.0
9.0
11.0
5.5
8.5
2.5
22.0
24.5
19.5
vs Similar (44)
9.8
10.0
9.5
0.7
0.3
1.0
22.9
22.2
23.5
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
67%
10%
9%
11%
50%
50%
50%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
90%
91%
89%
50%
50%
50%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
7.9
8.2
1.1
1.2
1.0
23.7
22.7
24.8
vs Stronger (17)
7.7
6.7
8.5
1.6
1.6
1.6
23.9
21.3
25.8
vs Similar (32)
9.0
10.0
7.5
0.8
0.9
0.6
23.2
23.3
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
5.0
5.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
31%
29%
33%
18%
21%
15%
69%
57%
83%
% under line
69%
71%
67%
82%
79%
85%
31%
43%
17%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.1%
@ 1.81-3.9%
Under 9.5
52.9%
@ 1.89+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
1xBet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.7%
Under 3.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.6%
Under 21.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Morton or Draw✗ Miss
76.7%
Avg Implied 56.2% · @ 1.64
Edge
+20.5%
43%
34%
23%
covers Morton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.75
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Morton or Arbroath✓ Hit
66.5%
Avg Implied 71.6% · @ 1.29
Edge
-5.2%
43%
34%
23%
covers Morton + Arbroath
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Draw or Arbroath✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied 72.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-15.3%
43%
34%
23%
covers Draw + Arbroath
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.32
Betfair
1.30
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Morton over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.1%
@ 1.44+3.5%
Under
31.9%
@ 2.62-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Under
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.69
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Morton over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.6%
@ 3.16+2.3%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.31-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Betfair
3.20
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Morton over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 8.21-0.5%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.05+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Morton over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 18.00-2.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
13.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Arbroath over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
53.5%
@ 1.24-21.0%
Under
46.5%
@ 3.62+21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.93
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Betano
3.65
Arbroath over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
17.9%
@ 2.24-23.4%
Under
82.1%
@ 1.58+23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Arbroath over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 4.88-14.6%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.14+14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Arbroath over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 10.75-8.0%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.03+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Morton, so a minus line means Morton give that many goals of a start and Arbroath receive them. At -1, Morton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Morton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Morton)Actual: Arbroath
Morton -2
6.1%
@ 19.00+1.2%
Draw -2
12.8%
@ 11.00+4.3%
Arbroath +2
81.0%
@ 1.08-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
19.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Away
Bet365
1.08
Handicap -1 (Morton)Actual: Arbroath
Morton -1
19.0%
@ 7.20+6.6%
Draw -1
24.2%
@ 4.78+5.6%
Arbroath +1
56.8%
@ 1.29-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
8.30
Unibet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.23
Handicap +1 (Morton)Actual: Draw
Morton +1
76.7%
@ 1.64+22.5%
Draw +1
15.8%
@ 3.66-8.4%
Arbroath -1
7.4%
@ 4.12-14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Draw
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.65
Unibet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.95
Handicap +2 (Morton)Actual: Morton
Morton +2
92.6%
@ 1.18+17.4%
Draw +2
5.8%
@ 6.02-9.0%
Arbroath -2
1.7%
@ 8.83-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw
Marathonbet
6.25
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Away
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
Bet365
8.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.36
0.36
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.58
0.38
0.38
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.27
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.10
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
65.5%
@ 1.42+0.3%
Under 0.5
34.5%
@ 2.67-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.79
Superbet
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
27.2%
@ 2.99-3.8%
Under 1.5
72.8%
@ 1.34+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.19
Betano
3.10
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Superbet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.6%
@ 7.86-3.2%
Under 2.5
91.4%
@ 1.05+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 2.46+5.7%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.49-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Unibet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 9.06-0.3%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.2%
@ 1.97-6.7%
Under
59.8%
@ 1.74+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 6.09-5.9%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.09+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.45
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 15.38-4.8%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.20
0.36
0.43
0.31
1.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
1.12
0.38
0.46
0.31
1.77
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.20
0.75
1.25
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.42
0.60
0.40
0.11
0.44
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.9%
Under 1.5
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
Under 2.5
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
-
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
98.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+14.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.5%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
+17.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.05
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.3%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.8%
1.32
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Unibet
1.29
+6.3%
-
Over 19.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.34
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.1%
1.69
Pinnacle
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
+14.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Morton and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Livingston
Ayr Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Queen's Park