Morton’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding just under a goal per game, while Ayr Utd’s away defence has been porous, yielding almost two goals each match. The model projects a tight affair with an expected total of 2.1 goals, most likely a 1-1 draw. The favourite outcome is a home win, with a 36% chance, a draw at 32%, and an away win at 31%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8% probability.
Morton’s average of 0.77 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similar opposition contrasts with Ayr Utd’s 1.0 goals scored and 1.79 conceded away. Suggested picks from the model include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 4.5 (93.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.8%), and Home under 2.5 goals (89.9%). Both sides have recently drawn 1-1 matches, hinting at a low-scoring, defensive showdown.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Morton win
38.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Morton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.67
0.71
0.86
1.00
2.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.58
0.77
0.92
1.08
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.13
1.07
1.13
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.46
1.07
1.14
1.00
1.79
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.9%
Under 1.5
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.6%
Under 2.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.6%
Under 3.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.8%
No
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.3%
1-0
12.4%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
5.7%
Morton goals ↓
Ayr Utd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
10%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
1
12%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.9%
7.7%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.0%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Ayr Utd goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Partick
1.85
Livingston
1.73
Dunfermline
1.54
Arbroath
1.48
Raith Rovers
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen's Park
1.14
Ayr Utd
1.08
Morton
1.04
Inverness CT
0.99
Morton is 0.04 points worse than Ayr Utd in terms of average points per game (1.04 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Livingston
1.52
Partick
1.50
Dunfermline
1.44
Arbroath
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Raith Rovers
1.19
Ayr Utd
1.06
Morton
1.00
Queen's Park
0.97
Inverness CT
0.87
Morton is 0.06 goals worse than Ayr Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livingston
0.91
Partick
0.96
Stenhousemuir
1.00
Dunfermline
1.02
Arbroath
1.15
Raith Rovers
1.17
Ayr Utd
1.31
Queen's Park
1.33
Morton
1.38
Inverness CT
1.59
Morton is 0.07 goals worse than Ayr Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 5.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ayr Utd
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 1.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.0
0.7
0.6
0.8
23.1
23.6
22.6
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
11.0
4.3
8.0
2.5
22.7
29.0
19.5
vs Similar (45)
9.7
10.0
9.3
0.5
0.3
0.7
23.3
22.2
24.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
60%
60%
6%
4%
8%
60%
60%
60%
% under line
40%
40%
40%
94%
96%
92%
40%
40%
40%
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
10.0
10.0
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Morton
10.9
Partick
10.4
Ayr Utd
10.0
Livingston
9.9
Arbroath
9.6
Dunfermline
9.3
Inverness CT
9.1
Queen's Park
9.0
Stenhousemuir
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Morton
4.5
Partick
4.4
Livingston
4.2
Ayr Utd
4.0
Dunfermline
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Inverness CT
3.2
Raith Rovers
3.0
Queen's Park
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
25.4
Livingston
25.3
Ayr Utd
22.0
Morton
21.6
Inverness CT
21.6
Arbroath
20.9
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
19.9
Queen's Park
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.7%
Under 9.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.6%
Under 21.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Morton or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
29%
covers Morton + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Morton or Ayr Utd
67.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
29%
covers Morton + Ayr Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ayr Utd
61.6%
Avg Implied -
38%
32%
29%
covers Draw + Ayr Utd
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Morton over/under 0.5
Over
68.4%
Under
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5
Over
62.1%
Under
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Morton, so a minus line means Morton give that many goals of a start and Ayr Utd receive them. At -1, Morton must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Morton win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Morton)
Morton -2
5.4%
Draw -2
11.3%
Ayr Utd +2
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Morton)
Morton -1
16.7%
Draw -1
21.7%
Ayr Utd +1
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Morton)
Morton +1
70.7%
Draw +1
18.1%
Ayr Utd -1
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Morton)
Morton +2
88.8%
Draw +2
8.1%
Ayr Utd -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.36
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.50
0.38
0.38
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.60
0.27
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.54
0.64
0.29
0.79
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.17
0.36
0.50
0.38
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
1.08
0.38
0.54
0.38
1.62
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ayr Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ayr Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.53
0.80
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.32
0.93
0.43
0.86
0.21
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ayr Utd over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
STE (2)
€0m
Morton's squad is €1m less valuable than Ayr Utd's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (9)
€2m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
Morton and Ayr Utd have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
Morton and Ayr Utd have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
Morton and Ayr Utd have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stenhousemuir
Partick
Raith Rovers
Arbroath
Livingston
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Queen's Park