This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.97
1.81
0.88
1.86
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.09
1.92
1.00
1.70
1.20
vs Weaker (7)
1.86
0.57
1.33
0.33
2.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.8%
Under 2.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.5%
Under 3.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.6%
0-1 â
8.7%
0-2
8.3%
0-0
7.0%
2-1
6.6%
1-0
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
Morton goals ↓
Livingston goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
8.7%
8.3%
4.6%
1.9%
1
5.7%
13%
9.6%
5.3%
2.2%
2
4.0%
6.6%
5.5%
3.1%
1.3%
3
1.5%
2.6%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Morton goals (down), columns = Livingston goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
ST Mirren
2.06
Livingston
1.72
Dundee Utd
1.69
Dunfermline
1.64
Inverness CT
1.58
Queen of Sth
1.44
Morton
1.39
Falkirk
1.31
Dumbarton
0.83
Brechin
0.11
Morton is 0.33 points worse than Livingston in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.72).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
ST Mirren
1.75
Dunfermline
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.64
Livingston
1.56
Inverness CT
1.47
Dundee Utd
1.44
Morton
1.31
Falkirk
1.25
Dumbarton
0.75
Brechin
0.56
Morton is 0.25 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.56).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunfermline
0.97
ST Mirren
1.00
Inverness CT
1.03
Livingston
1.03
Morton
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.17
Falkirk
1.36
Queen of Sth
1.47
Dumbarton
1.75
Brechin
2.50
Morton is 0.08 goals worse than Livingston in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.03).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Morton
For 6.1 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Livingston
For 4.4 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 12.0 · Total 25.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Morton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.1
10.5
1.7
1.9
1.6
24.3
23.8
24.8
vs Stronger (18)
11.3
12.3
10.3
0.9
0.6
1.2
22.8
22.3
23.3
vs Similar (26)
9.9
9.9
9.9
2.2
2.8
1.6
24.4
24.1
24.8
vs Weaker (6)
14.7
17.0
13.5
2.2
2.0
2.2
26.7
26.0
27.0
% over line
60%
67%
54%
22%
25%
19%
68%
75%
62%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
78%
75%
81%
32%
25%
38%
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
2.2
2.3
2.1
26.2
26.7
25.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
9.3
9.0
9.6
2.2
2.2
2.1
27.0
27.4
26.6
vs Weaker (12)
9.8
10.7
9.0
2.3
2.6
2.1
23.8
24.3
23.3
% over line
48%
46%
50%
34%
35%
33%
76%
77%
75%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
66%
65%
67%
24%
23%
25%
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
12.3
Dumbarton
12.1
ST Mirren
11.9
Brechin
10.9
Morton
10.8
Dunfermline
10.7
Falkirk
10.3
Inverness CT
10.1
Livingston
9.4
Queen of Sth
9.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dunfermline
4.5
Livingston
4.4
Dundee Utd
4.0
ST Mirren
3.8
Inverness CT
3.8
Falkirk
3.7
Morton
3.5
Brechin
3.4
Queen of Sth
3.1
Dumbarton
2.9
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Livingston
26.2
Inverness CT
24.7
Dunfermline
24.4
Morton
24.3
ST Mirren
23.6
Queen of Sth
23.5
Brechin
23.1
Falkirk
23.1
Dundee Utd
22.7
Dumbarton
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.2%
Under 9.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.1%
Under 3.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
67.2%
Under 21.5
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Morton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
0.25
0.00
0.25
0.75
0.25
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.80
0.90
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.06
0.25
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.39
1.08
0.31
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
0.43
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Morton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.88
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.47
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Livingston) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livingston
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
0.75
0.62
1.07
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.70
0.85
0.69
0.90
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.14
0.33
0.33
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Morton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Morton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Morton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livingston over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 2.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Livingston · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jeremy Bokila22%
Connor McLennan19%
Lewis Smith17%
Robbie Muirhead15%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Brooklyn Kabongolo12%
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Stevie May6%
Mahamadou Susoho6%
Cristian MontaÃąo4%
Mohammad Sylla3%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
JÃĐrÃīme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Connor McLennan38%
Mahamadou Susoho33%
Cristian MontaÃąo27%
Adam Montgomery25%
Macaulay Tait24%
Emmanuel Danso23%
Danny Finlayson23%
Jeremy Bokila22%
Robbie Muirhead21%
Brooklyn Kabongolo19%
Stevie May18%
Ryan McGowan17%
Babacar Fati17%
Mohammad Sylla16%
Graham Carey14%
Scott Pittman14%
Joshua Zimmerman14%
Samson Lawal13%
Scott Arfield12%
JÃĐrÃīme Prior11%
Cammy Kerr9%
Lewis Smith6%
Tete Yengi5%
Danny Wilson3%
Joshua Brenet0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Andy Winter0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Jon Nouble0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Barrie McKay29%
Jon Nouble20%
Graham Carey14%
Adam Montgomery12%
Cristian MontaÃąo12%
Macaulay Tait9%
Emmanuel Danso8%
Joshua Brenet7%
Robbie Muirhead6%
Stevie May6%
Scott Pittman6%
Lewis Smith6%
Ryan McGowan4%
Danny Finlayson3%
JÃĐrÃīme Prior3%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Connor McLennan0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Babacar Fati0%
Tete Yengi0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Samson Lawal0%
Brooklyn Kabongolo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tete Yengi11%
Jon Nouble10%
Robbie Muirhead9%
Stevie May9%
Connor McLennan6%
Brooklyn Kabongolo6%
Lewis Smith6%
Cristian MontaÃąo4%
Joshua Brenet0%
Scott Arfield0%
Jeremy Bokila0%
Mohammad Sylla0%
Barrie McKay0%
Andrew Shinnie0%
Shane Blaney0%
Graham Carey0%
Scott Pittman0%
Andy Winter0%
Cammy Kerr0%
Ryan McGowan0%
Danny Wilson0%
Alex Matthias Tamm0%
JÃĐrÃīme Prior0%
Danny Finlayson0%
Joshua Zimmerman0%
Emmanuel Danso0%
Babacar Fati0%
Adam Montgomery0%
Mahamadou Susoho0%
Macaulay Tait0%
Samson Lawal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
FAL (27)
€6m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
DUM (1)
€0m
Morton's squad is €3m less valuable than Livingston's (€1m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
Morton and Livingston have a similar attack value (both €0m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
LIV (8)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
Morton's midfield is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
MOR (6)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
Morton's defence is €1m less valuable than Livingston's (€0m vs €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
Dunfermline
Inverness CT
Falkirk
Dumbarton
Brechin