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Moss vs Raufoss Result & Analysis

Date: 29/05/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 1-0
Moss
Moss
Vs
47%
30%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Moss is favoured to win, with a 47% chance of triumph, 30% for a draw and 23% for Raufoss. The model expects 2.3 goals on average, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.9%. Moss, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.6 conceded. Raufoss, on the road, averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. The model’s selection is Under 3.5, with a 79.5% probability. The match is shaped by Moss’s recent 1-2 loss to Strommen and Raufoss’s five-game losing streak, both teams struggling to find form. The predicted outcome is a home win, a 2-goal total, and a 1-1 scoreline. The suggested pick, Under 3.5, carries a 79.5% chance.

Results analysis

Moss, fresh from a narrow defeat, extended their winless streak into a victory over Raufoss, who were still reeling from five consecutive losses. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved accurate, with a 47% probability and a final score of 1-0 confirming the predicted outcome. The selection for Under 3.5 goals, backed by a 79.5% chance, also hit, as the match produced only a single goal. The most likely total of 2 goals fell short, but the 1-0 result still aligned with the model’s overall expectations. Moss’s defensive solidity, conceding just 0.6 goals on average, was the decisive factor in securing the win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Moss win✓ Hit
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss win✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MossMoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D12L21W22D10W11D10W24LH·STA10/04A·FRE16/04H·SOG23/04H·JER30/04A·SKE03/05H·SAN07/05A·HOD13/05H·ASA16/05A·KFU21/05
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.221.221.000.601.502.00
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (8)1.251.251.000.601.672.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L40W00D31W00D12L00D03L12LH·SOG29/10A·HOD10/04H·KFU16/04A·SAN22/04A·STA30/04H·ASA03/05A·SOG06/05H·RAN13/05A·MJO16/05H·KON21/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.601.001.501.311.69
vs Stronger (12)1.252.081.142.001.402.20
vs Similar (18)1.111.280.861.001.271.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0 ✓
12.5%
0-0
11.1%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.5%
Moss goals ↓
Raufoss goals →
01234
011%7.7%4.1%1.3%0.3%
113%14%5.8%1.8%0.4%
29.7%8.9%4.1%1.2%0.3%
34.5%4.2%1.9%0.6%0.1%
41.6%1.5%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Raufoss goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Fredrikstad
2.13
KFUM Oslo
1.93
Kristiansund BK
1.69
Kongsvinger
1.68
Bryne
1.50
Start
1.48
Sogndal
1.43
Ranheim
1.33
Moss
1.27
Raufoss
1.27
Asane
1.23
Mjondalen
1.23
Sandnes ULF
1.23
hodd
1.10
jerv
1.03
Skeid
0.47
Moss and Raufoss are level in average points per game (both 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kristiansund BK
1.91
Kongsvinger
1.77
KFUM Oslo
1.70
Fredrikstad
1.67
Start
1.58
Sogndal
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.40
Bryne
1.38
Asane
1.37
jerv
1.33
Mjondalen
1.30
Moss
1.23
Ranheim
1.20
Raufoss
1.17
hodd
0.97
Skeid
0.80
Moss is 0.07 goals better than Raufoss in terms of goals scored per game (1.23 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Fredrikstad
0.77
KFUM Oslo
1.03
Bryne
1.16
Raufoss
1.20
Start
1.26
hodd
1.27
Kristiansund BK
1.28
Moss
1.33
Kongsvinger
1.39
Mjondalen
1.40
Asane
1.47
Sogndal
1.50
Sandnes ULF
1.50
Ranheim
1.77
jerv
1.97
Skeid
2.07
Moss is 0.13 goals worse than Raufoss in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MossMoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D01L01L11D11D00D00D00D10WH·STA10/04A·FRE16/04H·SOG23/04H·JER30/04A·SKE03/05H·SAN07/05A·HOD13/05H·ASA16/05A·KFU21/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.440.200.400.500.50
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (8)0.380.380.200.400.670.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RaufossRaufoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D20W00D00D00D01L00D01L10WH·SOG29/10A·HOD10/04H·KFU16/04A·SAN22/04A·STA30/04H·ASA03/05A·SOG06/05H·RAN13/05A·MJO16/05H·KON21/05
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.530.290.430.500.62
vs Stronger (12)0.500.670.430.570.600.80
vs Similar (18)0.330.440.140.290.450.55
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MossMoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W11D10W11D10W11D10W14LH·STA10/04A·FRE16/04H·SOG23/04H·JER30/04A·SKE03/05H·SAN07/05A·HOD13/05H·ASA16/05A·KFU21/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.890.780.800.201.001.50
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (8)0.880.880.800.201.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %56% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RaufossRaufoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L20W00D31W00D11D00D02L02LH·SOG29/10A·HOD10/04H·KFU16/04A·SAN22/04A·STA30/04H·ASA03/05A·SOG06/05H·RAN13/05A·MJO16/05H·KON21/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.070.711.070.811.06
vs Stronger (12)0.751.420.711.430.801.40
vs Similar (18)0.780.830.710.710.820.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRE (25)
€15m
KB (21)
€13m
STA (25)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Moss's squad is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
KO (8)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss's attack is €1m more valuable than Raufoss's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KB (6)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
KO (5)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FRE (16)
€8m
KO (11)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MOS wins
0
Draws
0
RAU wins

Head-to-head

Moss vs Raufoss · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

MossMoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23AKFUM Oslo Vs MOS4-2
16/05/23HMOS Vs Asane1-0
13/05/23Ahodd Vs MOS1-1
07/05/23HMOS Vs Sandnes ULF1-0
03/05/23ASkeid Vs MOS2-2
30/04/23HMOS Vs jerv2-1
23/04/23HMOS Vs Sogndal1-2
16/04/23AFredrikstad Vs MOS1-1
10/04/23HMOS Vs Start0-0

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/05/23HRAU Vs Kongsvinger1-2
16/05/23AMjondalen Vs RAU3-0
13/05/23HRAU Vs Ranheim0-0
06/05/23ASogndal Vs RAU2-1
03/05/23HRAU Vs Asane0-0
30/04/23AStart Vs RAU1-3
22/04/23ASandnes ULF Vs RAU0-0
16/04/23HRAU Vs KFUM Oslo4-0
10/04/23Ahodd Vs RAU1-0
29/10/22HRAU Vs Sogndal0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Moss
Moss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDWL1.44
HomeDLWWW2.00
AwayDDDL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%60%0%
AVG goals2.441.603.50
Over 1.5 %67%40%100%
Over 2.5 %44%40%50%
Over 3.5 %22%0%50%
Scored1.221.001.50
Conceded1.220.602.00
BTTS67%40%100%
Clean Sheet33%60%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.13
HomeLWDDL1.26
AwayLDWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%25%
AVG goals2.742.423.05
Over 1.5 %79%74%85%
Over 2.5 %59%53%65%
Over 3.5 %31%21%40%
Scored1.131.001.25
Conceded1.621.421.80
BTTS49%42%55%
Clean Sheet21%32%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FredrikstadFredrikstad3064
60%
2.1
5023+27
2.4
70%
53%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
15
5381.70.8
-
2KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo3058
57%
1.9
5131+20
2.7
67%
43%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3241.71.0
-
3Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK3254
47%
1.7
6141+20
3.2
88%
56%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
5431.91.3
-
4KongsvingerKongsvinger3152
52%
1.7
5543+12
3.2
94%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.81.4
-
5BryneBryne3248
44%
1.5
4437+7
2.5
75%
59%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.41.2
-
6StartStart3146
39%
1.5
4939+10
2.8
81%
65%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.61.3
-
7SogndalSogndal3043
40%
1.4
4545+0
3.0
83%
63%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.51.5
-
8RanheimRanheim3040
40%
1.3
3653-17
3.0
73%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.21.8
-
9RaufossRaufoss3038
33%
1.3
3536-1
2.4
63%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.21.2
-
10MossMoss3038
33%
1.3
3740-3
2.6
73%
57%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.3
-
11Sandnes ULFSandnes ULF3037
33%
1.2
4245-3
2.9
77%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.5
-
12AsaneAsane3037
30%
1.2
4144-3
2.8
77%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.41.5
-
13MjondalenMjondalen3037
33%
1.2
3942-3
2.7
77%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
14hoddhodd3033
27%
1.1
2938-9
2.2
63%
43%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.3
-
15jervjerv3031
27%
1.0
4059-19
3.3
80%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
16SkeidSkeid3014
10%
0.5
2462-38
2.9
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.1
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Norway: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

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