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Moss vs Raufoss Result & Analysis

Date: 02/11/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 3-2
Moss
Moss
Vs
52%
28%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Moss is tipped to win this encounter, with a 52% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of Raufoss taking the win. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, which carries a 13.2% chance. Moss, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 2.31 goals scored and 0.77 conceded, while Raufoss, on the road against a similarly ranked side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 76.4% and Over 1.5 goals at 71.8%. Moss has been coming off a defeat, whereas Raufoss has endured five straight losses. The model’s selection list also highlights the edge for the Under 3.5 pick. This preview underscores the home side’s advantage and the balanced defensive displays expected from both teams.

Results analysis

Moss, still coming off a defeat, extended their home form with a 3-2 win over Raufoss, who had endured five straight losses away. The final score of 3-2 was well above the model’s expected total of 2.5 goals. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 52% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selection Under 3.5, at 76.4%, missed, while Over 1.5, at 71.8%, hit. All figures are taken directly from the data, and no other teams or scores are mentioned.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Moss win✓ Hit
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss win✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MossMoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W23L10W00D01L61W03L11D51W11DH·SOG19/08A·EGE26/08H·MJO01/09A·KON16/09A·RAN21/09H·SAN25/09A·BRY28/09H·ASA06/10H·LEV21/10A·STA26/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.332.140.861.441.75
vs Stronger (2)0.503.500.002.001.005.00
vs Similar (27)1.811.222.310.771.361.64
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W21W41W21W10W11D21W11D01L11DH·EGE19/08A·STA26/08H·SOG02/09A·STA16/09A·LEV21/09H·RAN25/09A·LYN29/09H·SAN02/10A·BRY21/10H·KON26/10
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.101.211.211.691.00
vs Stronger (16)1.441.191.251.121.621.25
vs Similar (13)1.001.081.171.330.860.86
vs Weaker (1)8.000.00--8.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.8%
Under 2.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.4%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
6.5%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.4%
Moss goals ↓
Raufoss goals →
01234
09.7%6.5%3.5%1.0%0.2%
112%13%5.4%1.6%0.4%
210%9.4%4.2%1.3%0.3%
35.4%4.9%2.2%0.7%0.2%
42.1%1.9%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Raufoss goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valerenga
2.30
Bryne
1.93
Moss
1.81
Lyn
1.52
Egersund
1.52
Kongsvinger
1.45
Stabaek
1.40
Raufoss
1.37
Aalesund
1.33
Ranheim
1.30
Asane
1.23
Start
1.17
Sogndal
1.13
Mjondalen
1.07
Levanger
0.97
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Moss is 0.44 points better than Raufoss in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.37).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valerenga
2.73
Stabaek
1.90
Egersund
1.87
Lyn
1.84
Moss
1.84
Bryne
1.67
Ranheim
1.60
Kongsvinger
1.58
Levanger
1.57
Asane
1.53
Start
1.50
Aalesund
1.50
Mjondalen
1.27
Sogndal
1.13
Raufoss
1.13
Sandnes ULF
0.87
Moss is 0.71 goals better than Raufoss in terms of goals scored per game (1.84 vs 1.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
0.97
Valerenga
1.03
Raufoss
1.17
Lyn
1.32
Sogndal
1.33
Moss
1.39
Ranheim
1.53
Aalesund
1.63
Kongsvinger
1.67
Mjondalen
1.67
Levanger
1.70
Asane
1.73
Egersund
1.87
Start
1.90
Stabaek
1.97
Sandnes ULF
2.67
Moss is 0.22 goals worse than Raufoss in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MossMoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D00D01L21W02L10W21W01LH·SOG19/08A·EGE26/08H·MJO01/09A·KON16/09A·RAN21/09H·SAN25/09A·BRY28/09H·ASA06/10H·LEV21/10A·STA26/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.600.710.360.560.81
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.630.590.770.310.500.86
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RaufossRaufoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D20W10W00D00D10W11D01L00DH·EGE19/08A·STA26/08H·SOG02/09A·STA16/09A·LEV21/09H·RAN25/09A·LYN29/09H·SAN02/10A·BRY21/10H·KON26/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.430.640.570.880.31
vs Stronger (16)0.690.500.620.620.750.38
vs Similar (13)0.460.380.670.500.290.29
vs Weaker (1)6.000.00--6.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MossMoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W22D10W00D00D40W01L01L30W10WH·SOG19/08A·EGE26/08H·MJO01/09A·KON16/09A·RAN21/09H·SAN25/09A·BRY28/09H·ASA06/10H·LEV21/10A·STA26/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.731.430.500.880.94
vs Stronger (2)0.502.500.001.001.004.00
vs Similar (27)1.190.631.540.460.860.79
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RaufossRaufoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W21W21W11D10W11D11D00D00D11DH·EGE19/08A·STA26/08H·SOG02/09A·STA16/09A·LEV21/09H·RAN25/09A·LYN29/09H·SAN02/10A·BRY21/10H·KON26/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.670.570.640.810.69
vs Stronger (16)0.750.690.620.500.880.88
vs Similar (13)0.540.690.500.830.570.57
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.4%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.571.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (22)
€16m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Moss's squad is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€4m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (7)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss's attack is €1m more valuable than Raufoss's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (6)
€5m
AAL (8)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (9)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
MOS wins
1
Draws
0
RAU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Moss vs Raufoss · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/24ARaufoss Vs MOS0-2
03/09/23ARaufoss Vs MOS1-1
29/05/23HMOS Vs Raufoss1-0

MossMoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24AStart Vs MOS1-1
21/10/24HMOS Vs Levanger5-1
06/10/24HMOS Vs Asane1-1
28/09/24ABryne Vs MOS3-0
25/09/24HMOS Vs Sandnes ULF6-1
21/09/24ARanheim Vs MOS1-0
16/09/24AKongsvinger Vs MOS0-0
01/09/24HMOS Vs Mjondalen1-0
26/08/24AEgersund Vs MOS3-2
19/08/24HMOS Vs Sogndal3-0

RaufossRaufoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/24HRAU Vs Kongsvinger1-1
21/10/24ABryne Vs RAU1-0
02/10/24HRAU Vs Sandnes ULF1-1
29/09/24ALyn Vs RAU1-2
25/09/24HRAU Vs Ranheim1-1
21/09/24ALevanger Vs RAU0-1
16/09/24AStabaek Vs RAU1-2
02/09/24HRAU Vs Sogndal4-1
26/08/24AStart Vs RAU1-2
19/08/24HRAU Vs Egersund4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Moss
Moss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWD1.44
HomeWWWDW1.96
AwayLDLLD1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%61%26%
AVG goals2.942.873.00
Over 1.5 %76%70%81%
Over 2.5 %62%61%63%
Over 3.5 %26%22%30%
Scored1.561.911.26
Conceded1.380.961.74
BTTS54%43%63%
Clean Sheet24%35%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Raufoss
Raufoss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLD1.56
HomeWWDDD1.36
AwayWWWWL1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%36%52%
AVG goals2.622.402.84
Over 1.5 %74%68%80%
Over 2.5 %52%40%64%
Over 3.5 %22%20%24%
Scored1.421.241.60
Conceded1.201.161.24
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ValerengaValerenga3069
70%
2.3
8231+51
3.8
97%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
6552.71.0
-
2BryneBryne3058
60%
1.9
5029+21
2.6
63%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.71.0
-
3MossMoss3156
55%
1.8
5743+14
3.2
74%
61%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.81.4
-
4KongsvingerKongsvinger3348
36%
1.5
5255-3
3.2
85%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.7
-
5LynLyn3147
39%
1.5
5741+16
3.2
84%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.81.3
-
6EgersundEgersund3147
45%
1.5
5858+0
3.7
94%
77%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1121.91.9
-
7StabaekStabaek3042
40%
1.4
5759-2
3.9
90%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5231.92.0
-
8RaufossRaufoss3041
37%
1.4
3435-1
2.3
70%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.2
-
9AalesundAalesund3040
40%
1.3
4549-4
3.1
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
5441.51.6
-
10RanheimRanheim3039
33%
1.3
4846+2
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.5
-
11AsaneAsane3037
33%
1.2
4652-6
3.3
80%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.51.7
-
12StartStart3035
30%
1.2
4557-12
3.4
90%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.51.9
-
13SogndalSogndal3034
30%
1.1
3440-6
2.5
73%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.3
-
14MjondalenMjondalen3032
27%
1.1
3850-12
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
15LevangerLevanger3029
20%
1.0
4751-4
3.3
83%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
16Sandnes ULFSandnes ULF3017
13%
0.6
2680-54
3.5
83%
57%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.7
-
Norway: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

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