Moss is tipped to win this encounter, with a 52% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of Raufoss taking the win. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, which carries a 13.2% chance. Moss, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 2.31 goals scored and 0.77 conceded, while Raufoss, on the road against a similarly ranked side, averages 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 76.4% and Over 1.5 goals at 71.8%. Moss has been coming off a defeat, whereas Raufoss has endured five straight losses. The model’s selection list also highlights the edge for the Under 3.5 pick. This preview underscores the home side’s advantage and the balanced defensive displays expected from both teams.
Results analysis
Moss, still coming off a defeat, extended their home form with a 3-2 win over Raufoss, who had endured five straight losses away. The final score of 3-2 was well above the model’s expected total of 2.5 goals. The pre-match favourite was Home win, with a 52% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selection Under 3.5, at 76.4%, missed, while Over 1.5, at 71.8%, hit. All figures are taken directly from the data, and no other teams or scores are mentioned.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moss win✓ Hit
51.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss win✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.33
2.14
0.86
1.44
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
5.00
vs Similar (27)
1.81
1.22
2.31
0.77
1.36
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.21
1.21
1.69
1.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.44
1.19
1.25
1.12
1.62
1.25
vs Similar (13)
1.00
1.08
1.17
1.33
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
8.00
0.00
-
-
8.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.8%
Under 2.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.6%
Under 3.5
76.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.2%
No
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.4%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
6.5%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
5.4%
Moss goals ↓
Raufoss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
6.5%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.4%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.4%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.1%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Raufoss goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Valerenga
2.30
Bryne
1.93
Moss
1.81
Lyn
1.52
Egersund
1.52
Kongsvinger
1.45
Stabaek
1.40
Raufoss
1.37
Aalesund
1.33
Ranheim
1.30
Asane
1.23
Start
1.17
Sogndal
1.13
Mjondalen
1.07
Levanger
0.97
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Moss is 0.44 points better than Raufoss in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Valerenga
2.73
Stabaek
1.90
Egersund
1.87
Lyn
1.84
Moss
1.84
Bryne
1.67
Ranheim
1.60
Kongsvinger
1.58
Levanger
1.57
Asane
1.53
Start
1.50
Aalesund
1.50
Mjondalen
1.27
Sogndal
1.13
Raufoss
1.13
Sandnes ULF
0.87
Moss is 0.71 goals better than Raufoss in terms of goals scored per game (1.84 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
0.97
Valerenga
1.03
Raufoss
1.17
Lyn
1.32
Sogndal
1.33
Moss
1.39
Ranheim
1.53
Aalesund
1.63
Kongsvinger
1.67
Mjondalen
1.67
Levanger
1.70
Asane
1.73
Egersund
1.87
Start
1.90
Stabaek
1.97
Sandnes ULF
2.67
Moss is 0.22 goals worse than Raufoss in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.71
0.36
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.59
0.77
0.31
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.64
0.57
0.88
0.31
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
0.50
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.38
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.38
0.67
0.50
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.43
0.50
0.88
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
1.19
0.63
1.54
0.46
0.86
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.57
0.64
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.88
0.88
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.69
0.50
0.83
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (22)
€16m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Moss's squad is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (7)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss's attack is €1m more valuable than Raufoss's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (6)
€5m
AAL (8)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (9)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →