Moss’s recent form, still recovering from a loss, suggests a cautious start, yet the model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 4.0 goals and a 21% chance of 6 or more. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Moss, a 8.2% probability, while the model favours a home win. Home advantage is reinforced by Moss’s 2.08 average goals scored and 1.83 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Raufoss, on the road, averages 2.0 goals for and 2.0 against. The probabilities for the match result are 50% home win, 21% draw, and 29% away win. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 91.6%, Over 2.5 at 76.2%, and BTTS Yes at 74.4%. Each selection is presented with its own probability, and the edge for Over 1.5 is noted. This preview highlights the attacking potential and the statistical edge for a high-scoring home victory.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Moss, failed to convert their 50% chance of victory, ending the game in a 1-1 draw. The model’s pick was therefore wrong. Moss, fresh from a 1-2 loss to Strommen, had been in a shaky run, while Raufoss, after five straight defeats, managed to hold their opponents to a single goal. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals, with a 91.6% probability, hit; Over 2.5 goals, at 76.2%, missed; and BTTS Yes, at 74.4%, hit. The final score of 1-1 confirmed the draw, leaving the predicted win out of reach.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moss win✗ Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Raufoss win✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
2.00
1.86
2.00
0.94
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.75
0.50
3.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.50
1.88
2.08
1.83
1.00
1.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.93
1.21
1.43
1.62
2.38
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
2.14
0.57
1.29
0.86
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.93
1.80
1.86
1.57
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.6%
Under 1.5
8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
76.2%
Under 2.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.7%
Under 3.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.4%
No
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.2%
1-1 ✓
7.9%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
6.2%
1-2
6.2%
3-2
5.4%
2-0
4.8%
2-3
4.0%
Moss goals ↓
Raufoss goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.6%
2.4%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
1
3.5%
7.9%
6.2%
3.5%
1.5%
2
4.8%
8.2%
7.0%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.6%
6.2%
5.4%
3.1%
1.3%
4
2.1%
3.6%
3.1%
1.8%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Raufoss goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lillestrom
2.67
Brattvåg
2.25
Start
1.83
Kongsvinger
1.77
Egersund
1.75
Aalesund
1.69
Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.55
Sogndal
1.43
hodd
1.10
ODD Ballklubb
1.10
Asane
1.03
Stabaek
1.03
Raufoss
1.00
Moss
0.97
Mjondalen
0.83
Skeid
0.50
Grorud
0.00
Moss is 0.03 points worse than Raufoss in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lillestrom
2.90
Kongsvinger
2.10
Start
1.93
Aalesund
1.91
Brattvåg
1.75
Egersund
1.72
Sogndal
1.63
Ranheim
1.61
Lyn
1.60
Stabaek
1.50
Raufoss
1.43
Moss
1.38
Asane
1.27
ODD Ballklubb
1.23
Mjondalen
1.20
Skeid
1.17
hodd
1.13
Grorud
0.50
Moss is 0.06 goals worse than Raufoss in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lillestrom
0.60
Brattvåg
1.00
Start
1.17
Lyn
1.23
Aalesund
1.25
Egersund
1.28
Kongsvinger
1.48
Sogndal
1.60
Ranheim
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.67
hodd
1.73
Asane
1.77
Stabaek
1.77
Raufoss
1.87
Grorud
2.00
Moss
2.12
Skeid
2.20
Mjondalen
2.37
Moss is 0.26 goals worse than Raufoss in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.87).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
1.00
0.71
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.73
1.17
0.58
0.36
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.71
0.71
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.71
0.29
0.71
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (15)
1.07
0.87
1.14
0.71
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.86
1.29
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.77
1.15
0.92
1.25
0.64
1.07
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Raufoss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Raufoss
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.13
0.50
0.71
0.81
1.50
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
1.43
0.29
0.57
0.43
2.29
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.93
0.71
0.86
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raufoss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Moss's squad is €2m more valuable than Raufoss's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (9)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss's attack is €1m more valuable than Raufoss's (€2m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
OB (7)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
Moss and Raufoss have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Norway: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lillestrom
Egersund
Start
Kongsvinger
Aalesund
Ranheim
Lyn
Sogndal
ODD Ballklubb
hodd
Stabaek
Asane
Mjondalen
Skeid
Brattvåg
Grorud