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Moss vs Sogndal Result & Analysis

Date: 19/08/2024
Time: 17:00
Final 3-0
Moss
Moss
Vs
42%
30%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sogndal
Sogndal
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Moss win✓ Hit
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sogndal win✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MossMoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W21W10W15L10W41W10W41W02L01LH·STA21/05A·MJO27/05H·AAL01/06A·VAL09/06H·BRY16/06A·ASA23/06H·KON20/07A·STA27/07H·VAL03/08A·AAL10/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.371.571.071.561.62
vs Stronger (3)1.003.001.002.001.005.00
vs Similar (26)1.581.231.670.921.501.50
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SogndalSogndal

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D12L23L22D21W20W03L40W20W11DH·RAU22/05A·STA28/05H·STA01/06H·EGE09/06A·LYN16/06H·KON22/06A·RAN20/07H·STA27/07A·EGE03/08H·LEV10/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.331.871.331.601.33
vs Stronger (3)1.331.67--1.331.67
vs Similar (26)1.621.271.871.331.271.18
vs Weaker (1)6.002.00--6.002.00
Clean sheet %20% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.0%
Under 1.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.4%
Under 2.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.8%
Under 3.5
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.4%
0-0
11.0%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
8.3%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.1%
Moss goals ↓
Sogndal goals →
01234
011%8.6%5.1%1.7%0.4%
111%14%6.7%2.3%0.6%
28.3%8.5%4.4%1.5%0.4%
33.6%3.7%1.9%0.7%0.2%
41.2%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Sogndal goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Valerenga
2.30
Bryne
1.93
Moss
1.81
Lyn
1.52
Egersund
1.52
Kongsvinger
1.45
Stabaek
1.40
Raufoss
1.37
Aalesund
1.33
Ranheim
1.30
Asane
1.23
Start
1.17
Sogndal
1.13
Mjondalen
1.07
Levanger
0.97
Sandnes ULF
0.57
Moss is 0.67 points better than Sogndal in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.13).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Valerenga
2.73
Stabaek
1.90
Egersund
1.87
Lyn
1.84
Moss
1.84
Bryne
1.67
Ranheim
1.60
Kongsvinger
1.58
Levanger
1.57
Asane
1.53
Start
1.50
Aalesund
1.50
Mjondalen
1.27
Sogndal
1.13
Raufoss
1.13
Sandnes ULF
0.87
Moss is 0.71 goals better than Sogndal in terms of goals scored per game (1.84 vs 1.13).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Bryne
0.97
Valerenga
1.03
Raufoss
1.17
Lyn
1.32
Sogndal
1.33
Moss
1.39
Ranheim
1.53
Aalesund
1.63
Kongsvinger
1.67
Mjondalen
1.67
Levanger
1.70
Asane
1.73
Egersund
1.87
Start
1.90
Stabaek
1.97
Sandnes ULF
2.67
Moss is 0.05 goals worse than Sogndal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MossMoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D01L00D20W00D21W01L01LH·STA21/05A·MJO27/05H·AAL01/06A·VAL09/06H·BRY16/06A·ASA23/06H·KON20/07A·STA27/07H·VAL03/08A·AAL10/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.500.360.750.62
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.000.500.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.650.500.580.330.710.64
vs Weaker (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SogndalSogndal

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D12L00D21W10W01L20W10W01LH·RAU22/05A·STA28/05H·STA01/06H·EGE09/06A·LYN16/06H·KON22/06A·RAN20/07H·STA27/07A·EGE03/08H·LEV10/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.600.730.531.130.67
vs Stronger (3)0.670.33--0.670.33
vs Similar (26)0.810.620.730.530.910.73
vs Weaker (1)5.001.00--5.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MossMoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D10W14L10W21W10W20W01L00DH·STA21/05A·MJO27/05H·AAL01/06A·VAL09/06H·BRY16/06A·ASA23/06H·KON20/07A·STA27/07H·VAL03/08A·AAL10/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.871.070.710.811.00
vs Stronger (3)1.002.331.001.501.004.00
vs Similar (26)0.920.731.080.580.790.86
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SogndalSogndal

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D22D00D10W02L20W10W10WH·RAU22/05A·STA28/05H·STA01/06H·EGE09/06A·LYN16/06H·KON22/06A·RAN20/07H·STA27/07A·EGE03/08H·LEV10/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.731.130.800.470.67
vs Stronger (3)0.671.33--0.671.33
vs Similar (26)0.810.651.130.800.360.45
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (22)
€16m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (7)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (6)
€5m
AAL (8)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAL (9)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
MOS wins
0
Draws
3
SOG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Moss vs Sogndal · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/24ASogndal Vs MOS1-0
07/10/23ASogndal Vs MOS2-1
23/04/23HMOS Vs Sogndal1-2

MossMoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24AAalesund Vs MOS1-0
03/08/24HMOS Vs Valerenga0-2
27/07/24AStabaek Vs MOS1-4
20/07/24HMOS Vs Kongsvinger1-0
23/06/24AAsane Vs MOS1-4
16/06/24HMOS Vs Bryne1-0
09/06/24AValerenga Vs MOS5-1
01/06/24HMOS Vs Aalesund1-0
27/05/24AMjondalen Vs MOS1-2
21/05/24HMOS Vs Start2-1

SogndalSogndal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24HSOG Vs Levanger1-1
03/08/24AEgersund Vs SOG0-2
27/07/24HSOG Vs Start4-0
20/07/24ARanheim Vs SOG3-0
22/06/24HSOG Vs Kongsvinger2-0
16/06/24ALyn Vs SOG1-2
09/06/24HSOG Vs Egersund2-2
01/06/24HSOG Vs Stabaek2-3
28/05/24AStart Vs SOG2-1
22/05/24HSOG Vs Raufoss1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Moss
Moss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.46
HomeWWWWL1.88
AwayWLWWL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%58%27%
AVG goals2.802.333.23
Over 1.5 %74%58%88%
Over 2.5 %60%54%65%
Over 3.5 %24%12%35%
Scored1.421.421.42
Conceded1.380.921.81
BTTS56%38%73%
Clean Sheet26%42%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Sogndal
Sogndal
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.54
HomeLDWWD1.76
AwayWLWLW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%48%36%
AVG goals3.003.122.88
Over 1.5 %84%84%84%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %30%36%24%
Scored1.661.881.44
Conceded1.341.241.44
BTTS64%68%60%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ValerengaValerenga3069
70%
2.3
8231+51
3.8
97%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
6552.71.0
-
2BryneBryne3058
60%
1.9
5029+21
2.6
63%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2121.71.0
-
3MossMoss3156
55%
1.8
5743+14
3.2
74%
61%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.81.4
-
4KongsvingerKongsvinger3348
36%
1.5
5255-3
3.2
85%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3121.61.7
-
5LynLyn3147
39%
1.5
5741+16
3.2
84%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.81.3
-
6EgersundEgersund3147
45%
1.5
5858+0
3.7
94%
77%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1121.91.9
-
7StabaekStabaek3042
40%
1.4
5759-2
3.9
90%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5231.92.0
-
8RaufossRaufoss3041
37%
1.4
3435-1
2.3
70%
40%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.11.2
-
9AalesundAalesund3040
40%
1.3
4549-4
3.1
80%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
5441.51.6
-
10RanheimRanheim3039
33%
1.3
4846+2
3.1
83%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.5
-
11AsaneAsane3037
33%
1.2
4652-6
3.3
80%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.51.7
-
12StartStart3035
30%
1.2
4557-12
3.4
90%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.51.9
-
13SogndalSogndal3034
30%
1.1
3440-6
2.5
73%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.3
-
14MjondalenMjondalen3032
27%
1.1
3850-12
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
15LevangerLevanger3029
20%
1.0
4751-4
3.3
83%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
16Sandnes ULFSandnes ULF3017
13%
0.6
2680-54
3.5
83%
57%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.92.7
-
Norway: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

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