PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Moss vs Sogndal Result & Analysis

Date: 30/07/2025
Time: 16:00
Final 3-1
Moss
Moss
Vs
48%
25%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sogndal
Sogndal
Norway: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Moss win✓ Hit
47.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sogndal win✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MossMoss

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L20W02L21W03L22D31W12L24L02LH·VIK07/05H·LYN11/05A·ODD16/05H·SKE24/05H·STA31/05A·MJO15/06H·HOD18/06A·ASA21/06H·EGE28/06A·AAL26/07
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.672.271.270.932.07
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (27)1.671.672.431.290.852.08
vs Weaker (1)3.001.00--3.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SogndalSogndal

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-433D12L20W20W22D24L41W12L00D11DH·KON07/05A·HOD11/05H·ASA16/05A·EGE25/05H·RAU31/05A·KON14/06A·SKE18/06H·LYN22/06A·LIL28/06H·STA26/07
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.601.271.801.331.40
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.003.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)1.271.691.361.711.171.67
vs Weaker (2)3.000.50--3.000.50
Clean sheet %23% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.2%
1-0
7.0%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
3-1 ✓
5.6%
0-0
5.5%
Moss goals ↓
Sogndal goals →
01234
05.5%4.8%3.9%1.7%0.6%
17.0%12%6.9%3.0%1.0%
27.2%9.4%6.2%2.7%0.9%
34.3%5.6%3.7%1.6%0.5%
41.9%2.5%1.7%0.7%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moss goals (down), columns = Sogndal goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lillestrom
2.67
Brattvåg
2.25
Start
1.83
Kongsvinger
1.77
Egersund
1.75
Aalesund
1.69
Lyn
1.57
Ranheim
1.55
Sogndal
1.43
hodd
1.10
ODD Ballklubb
1.10
Asane
1.03
Stabaek
1.03
Raufoss
1.00
Moss
0.97
Mjondalen
0.83
Skeid
0.50
Grorud
0.00
Moss is 0.46 points worse than Sogndal in terms of average points per game (0.97 vs 1.43).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lillestrom
2.90
Kongsvinger
2.10
Start
1.93
Aalesund
1.91
Brattvåg
1.75
Egersund
1.72
Sogndal
1.63
Ranheim
1.61
Lyn
1.60
Stabaek
1.50
Raufoss
1.43
Moss
1.38
Asane
1.27
ODD Ballklubb
1.23
Mjondalen
1.20
Skeid
1.17
hodd
1.13
Grorud
0.50
Moss is 0.26 goals worse than Sogndal in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.63).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lillestrom
0.60
Brattvåg
1.00
Start
1.17
Lyn
1.23
Aalesund
1.25
Egersund
1.28
Kongsvinger
1.48
Sogndal
1.60
Ranheim
1.65
ODD Ballklubb
1.67
hodd
1.73
Asane
1.77
Stabaek
1.77
Raufoss
1.87
Grorud
2.00
Moss
2.12
Skeid
2.20
Mjondalen
2.37
Moss is 0.52 goals worse than Sogndal in terms of goals conceded per game (2.12 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MossMoss

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W00D10W00D10W20W00D12L01LH·VIK07/05H·LYN11/05A·ODD16/05H·SKE24/05H·STA31/05A·MJO15/06H·HOD18/06A·ASA21/06H·EGE28/06A·AAL26/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.671.200.330.271.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (27)0.740.631.290.360.150.92
vs Weaker (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SogndalSogndal

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L00D10W10W03L10W11D00D10WH·KON07/05A·HOD11/05H·ASA16/05A·EGE25/05H·RAU31/05A·KON14/06A·SKE18/06H·LYN22/06A·LIL28/06H·STA26/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.530.800.400.73
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.500.810.570.790.420.83
vs Weaker (2)0.500.50--0.500.50
Clean sheet %43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MossMoss

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W02L11D03L12L11D12L12L01LH·VIK07/05H·LYN11/05A·ODD16/05H·SKE24/05H·STA31/05A·MJO15/06H·HOD18/06A·ASA21/06H·EGE28/06A·AAL26/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.001.070.930.671.07
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.931.041.140.930.691.15
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sogndal) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SogndalSogndal

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D20W10W12L21W31W01L00D01LH·KON07/05A·HOD11/05H·ASA16/05A·EGE25/05H·RAU31/05A·KON14/06A·SKE18/06H·LYN22/06A·LIL28/06H·STA26/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.830.731.000.930.67
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (26)0.770.880.790.930.750.83
vs Weaker (2)2.500.00--2.500.00
Clean sheet %37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Moss) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moss over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moss over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sogndal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (9)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
STA (8)
€3m
OB (7)
€3m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
Moss and Sogndal have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
MOS wins
0
Draws
3
SOG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Moss vs Sogndal · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/24HMOS Vs Sogndal3-0
20/04/24ASogndal Vs MOS1-0
07/10/23ASogndal Vs MOS2-1
23/04/23HMOS Vs Sogndal1-2

MossMoss

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/25AAalesund Vs MOS2-0
28/06/25HMOS Vs Egersund2-4
21/06/25AAsane Vs MOS2-1
18/06/25HMOS Vs hodd3-1
15/06/25AMjondalen Vs MOS2-2
31/05/25HMOS Vs Start0-3
24/05/25HMOS Vs Skeid2-1
16/05/25AODD Ballklubb Vs MOS2-0
11/05/25HMOS Vs Lyn2-0
07/05/25HMOS Vs Viking0-1

SogndalSogndal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/25HSOG Vs Stabaek1-1
28/06/25ALillestrom Vs SOG0-0
22/06/25HSOG Vs Lyn1-2
18/06/25ASkeid Vs SOG1-4
14/06/25AKongsvinger Vs SOG4-2
31/05/25HSOG Vs Raufoss2-2
25/05/25AEgersund Vs SOG0-2
16/05/25HSOG Vs Asane2-0
11/05/25Ahodd Vs SOG2-1
07/05/25HSOG Vs Kongsvinger3-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Moss
Moss
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.58
HomeWWLWL2.12
AwayLLDLL1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%67%31%
AVG goals3.223.173.27
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %62%58%65%
Over 3.5 %36%33%38%
Scored1.682.001.38
Conceded1.541.171.88
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet22%33%12%
Corners7.005.009.00
Cards4.504.005.00
Sogndal
Sogndal
Norway: 1. Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDD1.34
HomeDWDLD1.29
AwayLWLWD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%33%38%
AVG goals2.943.172.73
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %32%42%23%
Scored1.541.671.42
Conceded1.401.501.31
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet26%21%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LillestromLillestrom3080
83%
2.7
8718+69
3.5
87%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6452.90.6
-
2EgersundEgersund3256
50%
1.8
5541+14
3.0
81%
47%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1121.71.3
-
3StartStart3055
53%
1.8
5835+23
3.1
90%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.91.2
-
4KongsvingerKongsvinger3155
48%
1.8
6546+19
3.6
94%
74%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.11.5
-
5AalesundAalesund3254
44%
1.7
6140+21
3.2
81%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
5441.91.2
-
6RanheimRanheim3148
45%
1.5
5051-1
3.3
87%
71%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
7LynLyn3047
47%
1.6
4837+11
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.61.2
-
8SogndalSogndal3043
40%
1.4
4948+1
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
9ODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb3033
27%
1.1
3750-13
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.21.7
-
10hoddhodd3033
27%
1.1
3452-18
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
11StabaekStabaek3031
23%
1.0
4553-8
3.3
90%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5231.51.8
-
12AsaneAsane3031
23%
1.0
3853-15
3.0
90%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.31.8
-
13MossMoss3231
25%
1.0
4468-24
3.5
97%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.42.1
-
14RaufossRaufoss3030
23%
1.0
4356-13
3.3
83%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.41.9
-
15MjondalenMjondalen3025
20%
0.8
3671-35
3.6
87%
67%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.4
-
16SkeidSkeid3015
7%
0.5
3566-31
3.4
93%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
17BrattvågBrattvåg49
75%
2.2
74+3
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
18GrorudGrorud20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
Norway: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →

← all matches