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Mosta vs Birkirkara Result & Analysis

Date: 11/03/2023
Time: 17:00
Final 1-1
Mosta
Mosta
Vs
32%
29%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mosta winâś— Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara winâś— Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W21W12L21W02L40W21W20W00D12LH·ZEB04/12A·SAN11/12A·GUD16/12H·MAR08/01A·HIB21/01H·PIE28/01A·SIR04/02H·FLO12/02A·VAL19/02H·HAM05/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.291.601.401.731.18
vs Stronger (4)1.251.251.501.001.001.50
vs Similar (14)1.861.291.671.672.001.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %19% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-551W21W01L50W21W20W11D31W00D11DA·PIE04/12H·BAL10/12A·SIR16/12H·ZEB07/01A·FLO21/01H·SAN28/01A·VAL05/02H·GUD11/02A·HAM19/02H·MAR05/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.760.671.910.551.600.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.530.651.440.561.620.75
vs Weaker (4)2.750.754.000.501.501.00
Clean sheet %38% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.5%
Under 2.5
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 âś“
13.8%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
8.9%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.6%
Mosta goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
01234
08.9%9.1%7.1%3.2%1.1%
18.0%14%8.6%3.9%1.3%
25.6%7.6%5.2%2.4%0.8%
32.3%3.1%2.1%1.0%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa LucĂ­a
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.46
Mosta is 0.15 points worse than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa LucĂ­a
0.77
Mosta is 0.12 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa LucĂ­a
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
PietĂ  Hotspurs
2.50
Mosta is 0.50 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 0.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W11D11D01L00D11D10W00D02LH·ZEB04/12A·SAN11/12A·GUD16/12H·MAR08/01A·HIB21/01H·PIE28/01A·SIR04/02H·FLO12/02A·VAL19/02H·HAM05/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.710.300.800.910.64
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (14)0.790.640.330.831.120.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %38% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D01L40W00D10W11D20W00D00DA·PIE04/12H·BAL10/12A·SIR16/12H·ZEB07/01A·FLO21/01H·SAN28/01A·VAL05/02H·GUD11/02A·HAM19/02H·MAR05/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.760.381.000.360.500.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)0.530.350.560.440.500.25
vs Weaker (4)1.750.503.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D01L10W01L40W10W10W00D10WH·ZEB04/12A·SAN11/12A·GUD16/12H·MAR08/01A·HIB21/01H·PIE28/01A·SIR04/02H·FLO12/02A·VAL19/02H·HAM05/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.050.571.300.600.820.55
vs Stronger (4)1.000.251.000.001.000.50
vs Similar (14)1.070.641.330.830.880.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W10W00D10W21W10W00D11D00D11DA·PIE04/12H·BAL10/12A·SIR16/12H·ZEB07/01A·FLO21/01H·SAN28/01A·VAL05/02H·GUD11/02A·HAM19/02H·MAR05/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.290.910.181.100.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (17)1.000.290.890.111.120.50
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %71% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.2%-------âś“ Hit
Over 1.574.0%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €1m).

đź§  Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
MOS wins
0
Draws
0
BIR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mosta vs Birkirkara · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
29/10/22ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-2

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/23HMOS Vs Hamrun Spartans1-2
19/02/23AValletta FC Vs MOS0-0
12/02/23HMOS Vs Floriana2-0
04/02/23ASirens Vs MOS1-2
28/01/23HMOS Vs PietĂ  Hotspurs4-0
21/01/23AHibernians Vs MOS2-0
08/01/23HMOS Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
16/12/22AGudja United Vs MOS2-1
11/12/22ASanta LucĂ­a Vs MOS1-2
04/12/22HMOS Vs Zebbug Rangers2-0

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/23HBIR Vs Marsaxlokk1-1
19/02/23AHamrun Spartans Vs BIR0-0
11/02/23HBIR Vs Gudja United3-1
05/02/23AValletta FC Vs BIR1-1
28/01/23HBIR Vs Santa LucĂ­a2-0
21/01/23AFloriana Vs BIR1-2
07/01/23HBIR Vs Zebbug Rangers5-0
16/12/22ASirens Vs BIR1-0
10/12/22HBIR Vs Balzan FC2-1
04/12/22APietĂ  Hotspurs Vs BIR1-5

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.71
HomeWWWWL1.60
AwayWLLWD1.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%50%55%
AVG goals2.953.002.91
Over 1.5 %95%100%91%
Over 2.5 %67%60%73%
Over 3.5 %24%30%18%
Scored1.671.601.73
Conceded1.291.401.18
BTTS67%50%82%
Clean Sheet19%30%9%
Corners---
Cards---
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWDD1.90
HomeWWWWD2.18
AwayWLWDD1.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%64%40%
AVG goals2.432.452.40
Over 1.5 %76%82%70%
Over 2.5 %43%45%40%
Over 3.5 %19%18%20%
Scored1.761.911.60
Conceded0.670.550.80
BTTS52%45%60%
Clean Sheet38%55%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucĂ­aSanta LucĂ­a2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14PietĂ  HotspursPietĂ  Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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