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Mosta vs Birkirkara Result & Analysis

Date: 24/02/2024
Time: 15:15
Final 0-2
Mosta
Mosta
Vs
22%
31%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mosta win✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara win✓ Hit
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L03L00D02L00D10W00D00D10WH·GZI26/11A·SAN02/12H·FLO09/12A·HIB17/12H·BAL07/01A·NAX20/01A·GUD28/01H·SIR03/02A·SLI10/02H·VAL17/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.031.201.401.070.67
vs Stronger (6)0.671.500.752.000.500.50
vs Similar (20)1.151.001.501.300.800.70
vs Weaker (4)1.750.500.000.002.330.67
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L30W11D32W21W12L00D12L10W11DA·NAX26/11H·HAM02/12A·GUD13/12H·GZI16/12A·SIR07/01H·SAN21/01A·SLI28/01H·FLO03/02A·VAL09/02H·HIB17/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.031.731.201.130.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.391.041.641.211.140.86
vs Weaker (2)2.001.003.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.5%
Under 1.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.2%
Under 2.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.3%
Under 3.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.4%
No
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.6%
1-1
14.0%
0-0
13.4%
0-2 ✓
10.4%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
5.1%
0-3
4.5%
Mosta goals ↓
Birkirkara goals →
01234
013%15%10%4.5%1.5%
18.5%14%8.3%3.6%1.2%
23.9%5.1%3.3%1.4%0.5%
31.0%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
40.2%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Birkirkara goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.38
Floriana
2.19
Sliema Wanderers
1.92
Marsaxlokk
1.65
Birkirkara
1.38
Hibernians
1.35
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Balzan FC
1.31
Gzira United
1.27
Mosta
1.19
Santa Lucía
1.15
Valletta FC
1.04
Sirens
0.62
Gudja United
0.23
Mosta is 0.19 points worse than Birkirkara in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.35
Floriana
2.04
Marsaxlokk
1.54
Gzira United
1.46
Sliema Wanderers
1.31
Naxxar Lions
1.23
Hibernians
1.12
Birkirkara
1.08
Balzan FC
1.00
Valletta FC
1.00
Santa Lucía
0.96
Mosta
0.73
Sirens
0.65
Gudja United
0.54
Mosta is 0.35 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals scored per game (0.73 vs 1.08).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.46
Hamrun Spartans
0.62
Floriana
0.73
Marsaxlokk
0.88
Birkirkara
1.04
Balzan FC
1.08
Hibernians
1.08
Valletta FC
1.19
Mosta
1.23
Gzira United
1.27
Naxxar Lions
1.35
Santa Lucía
1.58
Sirens
1.92
Gudja United
2.58
Mosta is 0.19 goals worse than Birkirkara in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.04).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L02L00D00D00D10W00D00D00DH·GZI26/11A·SAN02/12H·FLO09/12A·HIB17/12H·BAL07/01A·NAX20/01A·GUD28/01H·SIR03/02A·SLI10/02H·VAL17/02
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.400.670.600.40
vs Stronger (6)0.330.830.251.000.500.50
vs Similar (20)0.450.500.500.600.400.40
vs Weaker (4)1.000.250.000.001.330.33
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L10W10W12L00D01L00D00DA·NAX26/11H·HAM02/12A·GUD13/12H·GZI16/12A·SIR07/01H·SAN21/01A·SLI28/01H·FLO03/02A·VAL09/02H·HIB17/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.300.930.330.530.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.710.290.860.360.570.21
vs Weaker (2)1.000.502.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %73% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L00D02L00D00D00D00D10WH·GZI26/11A·SAN02/12H·FLO09/12A·HIB17/12H·BAL07/01A·NAX20/01A·GUD28/01H·SIR03/02A·SLI10/02H·VAL17/02
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.500.800.730.470.27
vs Stronger (6)0.330.670.501.000.000.00
vs Similar (20)0.700.501.000.700.400.30
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.001.000.33
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Birkirkara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W10W22D11D00D00D11D10W11DA·NAX26/11H·HAM02/12A·GUD13/12H·GZI16/12A·SIR07/01H·SAN21/01A·SLI28/01H·FLO03/02A·VAL09/02H·HIB17/02
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.800.870.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.680.750.790.860.570.64
vs Weaker (2)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Birkirkara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
NL (16)
€1m
GU (1)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar squad value (both €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
NL (4)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
SW (4)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
NL (5)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
SW (10)
€2m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
NL (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
Mosta and Birkirkara have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
MOS wins
1
Draws
0
BIR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mosta vs Birkirkara · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
21/10/23ABirkirkara Vs MOS0-2
11/03/23HMOS Vs Birkirkara1-1
29/10/22ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-2

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24HMOS Vs Valletta FC1-0
10/02/24ASliema Wanderers Vs MOS0-0
03/02/24HMOS Vs Sirens0-0
28/01/24AGudja United Vs MOS0-1
20/01/24ANaxxar Lions Vs MOS0-0
07/01/24HMOS Vs Balzan FC0-2
17/12/23AHibernians Vs MOS0-0
09/12/23HMOS Vs Floriana0-3
02/12/23ASanta Lucía Vs MOS1-0
26/11/23HMOS Vs Gzira United0-3

BirkirkaraBirkirkara

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/02/24HBIR Vs Hibernians1-1
09/02/24AValletta FC Vs BIR0-1
03/02/24HBIR Vs Floriana1-2
28/01/24ASliema Wanderers Vs BIR0-0
21/01/24HBIR Vs Santa Lucía1-2
07/01/24ASirens Vs BIR1-2
16/12/23HBIR Vs Gzira United3-2
13/12/23AGudja United Vs BIR1-1
02/12/23HBIR Vs Hamrun Spartans3-0
26/11/23ANaxxar Lions Vs BIR2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDW1.53
HomeLLLDW1.33
AwayLDDWD1.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%38%45%
AVG goals2.492.712.27
Over 1.5 %79%86%73%
Over 2.5 %51%57%45%
Over 3.5 %19%24%14%
Scored1.331.191.45
Conceded1.161.520.82
BTTS51%43%59%
Clean Sheet30%29%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Birkirkara
Birkirkara
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWD1.69
HomeWWLLD1.78
AwayLDWDW1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%52%41%
AVG goals2.492.742.23
Over 1.5 %80%87%73%
Over 2.5 %44%52%36%
Over 3.5 %18%22%14%
Scored1.581.781.36
Conceded0.910.960.86
BTTS53%52%55%
Clean Sheet33%39%27%
Corners10.509.0012.00
Cards8.506.0011.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2662
73%
2.4
6116+45
3.0
81%
58%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1312.30.6
-
2FlorianaFloriana2657
69%
2.2
5319+34
2.8
85%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.00.7
-
3Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2650
54%
1.9
3412+22
1.8
50%
23%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.30.5
-
4MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2643
46%
1.7
4023+17
2.4
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.50.9
-
5BirkirkaraBirkirkara2636
35%
1.4
2827+1
2.1
77%
31%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.11.0
-
6HiberniansHibernians2635
35%
1.3
2928+1
2.2
73%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.11.1
-
7Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2635
35%
1.3
3235-3
2.6
77%
46%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.3
-
8Balzan FCBalzan FC2634
31%
1.3
2628-2
2.1
58%
31%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.1
-
9Gzira UnitedGzira United2633
35%
1.3
3833+5
2.7
73%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.3
-
10MostaMosta2631
27%
1.2
1932-13
2.0
65%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.71.2
-
11Santa LucíaSanta Lucía2630
31%
1.2
2541-16
2.5
73%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12Valletta FCValletta FC2627
23%
1.0
2631-5
2.2
73%
27%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.01.2
-
13SirensSirens2616
12%
0.6
1750-33
2.6
85%
58%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.9
-
14Gudja UnitedGudja United266
0%
0.2
1467-53
3.1
85%
58%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Malta: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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