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Mosta vs Floriana Result & Analysis

Date: 12/02/2023
Time: 15:15
Final 2-0
Mosta
Mosta
Vs
37%
30%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mosta winâś“ Hit
37.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Floriana winâś— Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

MostaMosta

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W02L21W20W21W12L21W02L40W21WA·BIR29/10H·GZI04/11A·BAL13/11H·ZEB04/12A·SAN11/12A·GUD16/12H·MAR08/01A·HIB21/01H·PIE28/01A·SIR04/02
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.781.391.621.501.901.30
vs Stronger (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Similar (13)2.001.381.671.672.291.14
vs Weaker (3)1.331.331.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %11% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W30W11D01L31W10W12L00D01LA·ZEB29/10H·SAN05/11A·GUD13/11H·MAR03/12A·HIB12/12A·PIE17/12H·SIR07/01H·BIR21/01A·VAL29/01H·HAM04/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.850.700.800.500.900.90
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.250.880.500.750.001.00
vs Weaker (12)1.250.581.000.331.500.83
Clean sheet %45% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
Under 2.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-0
10.4%
1-0
10.0%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.5%
2-0 âś“
7.1%
0-2
6.0%
Mosta goals ↓
Floriana goals →
01234
010%9.2%6.0%2.3%0.7%
110%14%7.5%2.9%0.8%
27.1%8.1%4.7%1.8%0.5%
32.9%3.4%1.9%0.7%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mosta goals (down), columns = Floriana goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamrun Spartans
2.65
Birkirkara
1.92
Gzira United
1.85
Mosta
1.77
Balzan FC
1.74
Hibernians
1.74
Floriana
1.42
Valletta FC
1.42
Sirens
1.27
Gudja United
1.12
Marsaxlokk
0.96
Santa LucĂ­a
0.58
Zebbug Rangers
0.54
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.46
Mosta is 0.35 points better than Floriana in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.42).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Birkirkara
1.92
Mosta
1.81
Gzira United
1.77
Hibernians
1.74
Hamrun Spartans
1.73
Balzan FC
1.44
Valletta FC
1.42
Floriana
1.15
Gudja United
1.08
Marsaxlokk
1.08
Sirens
0.96
PietĂ  Hotspurs
0.85
Zebbug Rangers
0.81
Santa LucĂ­a
0.77
Mosta is 0.65 goals better than Floriana in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.15).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Hamrun Spartans
0.38
Gzira United
0.73
Birkirkara
0.77
Valletta FC
0.88
Floriana
1.00
Sirens
1.23
Balzan FC
1.26
Mosta
1.27
Hibernians
1.44
Marsaxlokk
1.46
Gudja United
1.50
Santa LucĂ­a
1.88
Zebbug Rangers
2.23
PietĂ  Hotspurs
2.50
Mosta is 0.27 goals worse than Floriana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L10W00D10W11D11D01L00D11DA·BIR29/10H·GZI04/11A·BAL13/11H·ZEB04/12A·SAN11/12A·GUD16/12H·MAR08/01A·HIB21/01H·PIE28/01A·SIR04/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.720.250.751.000.70
vs Stronger (2)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (13)0.850.690.330.831.290.57
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W01L01L10W00D00D00D00DA·ZEB29/10H·SAN05/11A·GUD13/11H·MAR03/12A·HIB12/12A·PIE17/12H·SIR07/01H·BIR21/01A·VAL29/01H·HAM04/02
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.350.300.100.300.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.000.250.000.000.000.50
vs Weaker (12)0.500.420.500.170.500.67
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MostaMosta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L11D20W11D01L10W01L40W10WA·BIR29/10H·GZI04/11A·BAL13/11H·ZEB04/12A·SAN11/12A·GUD16/12H·MAR08/01A·HIB21/01H·PIE28/01A·SIR04/02
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.110.671.380.750.900.60
vs Stronger (2)1.000.50--1.000.50
vs Similar (13)1.150.691.330.831.000.57
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %44% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Floriana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FlorianaFloriana

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W10W10W00D21W10W12L00D01LA·ZEB29/10H·SAN05/11A·GUD13/11H·MAR03/12A·HIB12/12A·PIE17/12H·SIR07/01H·BIR21/01A·VAL29/01H·HAM04/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.350.500.400.600.30
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.250.620.500.750.000.50
vs Weaker (12)0.750.170.500.171.000.17
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Mosta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mosta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mosta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Floriana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.9%-------âś“ Hit
Over 1.570.4%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (28)
€5m
HS (23)
€5m
FLO (22)
€5m
VF (20)
€4m
MAR (22)
€4m
MOS (24)
€3m
GU (13)
€3m
BIR (12)
€3m
BF (10)
€2m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (1)
€0m
Mosta's squad is €2m less valuable than Floriana's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (10)
€2m
FLO (7)
€2m
VF (7)
€2m
BIR (6)
€2m
MAR (8)
€1m
MOS (8)
€1m
HS (7)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
GU (4)
€1m
GU (0)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Mosta and Floriana have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HS (10)
€3m
MAR (6)
€2m
VF (5)
€1m
FLO (6)
€1m
MOS (4)
€1m
GU (3)
€1m
HIB (4)
€1m
BIR (2)
€1m
BF (2)
€0m
GU (1)
€0m
ZR (0)
€0m
Mosta and Floriana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HIB (14)
€3m
FLO (9)
€2m
VF (8)
€2m
GU (6)
€1m
HS (6)
€1m
MOS (12)
€1m
BIR (4)
€1m
MAR (8)
€1m
BF (4)
€1m
ZR (1)
€0m
GU (0)
€0m
Mosta and Floriana have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MOS wins
1
Draws
0
FLO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mosta vs Floriana · H/A from MOS
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/22AFloriana Vs MOS1-1

MostaMosta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/02/23ASirens Vs MOS1-2
28/01/23HMOS Vs PietĂ  Hotspurs4-0
21/01/23AHibernians Vs MOS2-0
08/01/23HMOS Vs Marsaxlokk2-1
16/12/22AGudja United Vs MOS2-1
11/12/22ASanta LucĂ­a Vs MOS1-2
04/12/22HMOS Vs Zebbug Rangers2-0
13/11/22ABalzan FC Vs MOS1-2
04/11/22HMOS Vs Gzira United0-2
29/10/22ABirkirkara Vs MOS1-2

FlorianaFloriana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/02/23HFLO Vs Hamrun Spartans0-1
29/01/23AValletta FC Vs FLO0-0
21/01/23HFLO Vs Birkirkara1-2
07/01/23HFLO Vs Sirens1-0
17/12/22APietĂ  Hotspurs Vs FLO1-3
12/12/22AHibernians Vs FLO1-0
03/12/22HFLO Vs Marsaxlokk1-1
13/11/22AGudja United Vs FLO0-3
05/11/22HFLO Vs Santa LucĂ­a1-0
29/10/22AZebbug Rangers Vs FLO0-1

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

Mosta
Mosta
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.78
HomeWLWWW1.62
AwayWWLLW1.90
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%50%60%
AVG goals3.173.123.20
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %72%62%80%
Over 3.5 %28%38%20%
Scored1.781.621.90
Conceded1.391.501.30
BTTS72%50%90%
Clean Sheet11%25%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Floriana
Floriana
Malta: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDL1.35
HomeWDWLL1.60
AwayWWLWD1.10
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%40%30%
AVG goals1.551.301.80
Over 1.5 %40%40%40%
Over 2.5 %20%10%30%
Over 3.5 %10%0%20%
Scored0.850.800.90
Conceded0.700.500.90
BTTS25%30%20%
Clean Sheet45%60%30%
Corners7.508.007.00
Cards5.507.004.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Hamrun SpartansHamrun Spartans2669
85%
2.7
4510+35
2.1
58%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1311.70.4
-
2BirkirkaraBirkirkara2650
54%
1.9
5020+30
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2111.90.8
-
3Gzira UnitedGzira United2648
54%
1.8
4619+27
2.5
73%
46%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.80.7
-
4HiberniansHibernians2747
52%
1.7
4739+8
3.2
85%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.71.4
-
5Balzan FCBalzan FC2747
52%
1.7
3934+5
2.7
70%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.3
-
6MostaMosta2646
54%
1.8
4733+14
3.1
96%
69%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.81.3
-
7Valletta FCValletta FC2637
35%
1.4
3723+14
2.3
62%
42%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.40.9
-
8FlorianaFloriana2637
38%
1.4
3026+4
2.2
58%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.0
-
9SirensSirens2633
31%
1.3
2532-7
2.2
58%
38%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.2
-
10Gudja UnitedGudja United2629
31%
1.1
2839-11
2.6
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
11MarsaxlokkMarsaxlokk2625
19%
1.0
2838-10
2.5
77%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.5
-
12Santa LucĂ­aSanta LucĂ­a2615
15%
0.6
2049-29
2.7
81%
54%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
13Zebbug RangersZebbug Rangers2614
15%
0.5
2158-37
3.0
81%
54%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.2
-
14PietĂ  HotspursPietĂ  Hotspurs2612
12%
0.5
2265-43
3.3
85%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Malta: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Premier League stats & trends →

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