Motherwell and Aberdeen face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are almost even: a 32% chance of a Motherwell victory, 31% for a draw, and 37% for Aberdeen. The expected goal total sits at 2.3, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at a 14.5% probability. Motherwell, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.54 conceded, while Aberdeen, on the road, averages 0.6 scored and 0.8 conceded against comparable teams.
The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (89.6%), Under 5.5 cards (85.6%), Over 21.5 fouls (79.8%), Under 3.5 (79.8%), Under 11.5 corners (75.1%), and Under 4.5 cards (72.3%). Each is presented with its probability, and where an edge percentage is provided it is noted. The recent form shows Motherwell coming off a draw and Aberdeen after a defeat, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
Motherwell’s win of 2-0 over Aberdeen stunned the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win, which proved wrong. The home side, after a draw in their last game, extended a modest run of results, while Aberdeen, coming off a defeat, had been on a winning streak. The model had assigned a 37% probability to an away victory, yet the actual result was a home win. The suggested picks delivered a mixed bag: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 89.6%, Under 5.5 cards missed at 85.6%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 79.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 79.8%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 75.1%, and Under 4.5 cards missed at 72.3%. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home side’s triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motherwell win✓ Hit
31.8%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.90
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.16
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen win✗ Miss
37.3%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.49
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.00
1.50
1.06
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (27)
1.04
1.37
1.00
1.54
1.07
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.92
0.62
0.65
1.29
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.17
1.00
1.50
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.86
0.83
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
@ 2.28-0.9%
Under 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.62+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.1%
No
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
10.7%
1-0
9.6%
1-2
8.0%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
7.3%
2-0 ✓
6.0%
Motherwell goals ↓
Aberdeen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
1
9.6%
15%
8.0%
3.2%
1.0%
2
6.0%
7.3%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
3
2.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Aberdeen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Motherwell is 0.13 points better than Aberdeen in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Motherwell is 0.03 goals better than Aberdeen in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Motherwell is 0.39 goals worse than Aberdeen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 5.0 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 11.5 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
For 5.3 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.2
10.9
3.5
3.7
3.4
24.8
24.6
25.1
vs Stronger (7)
10.4
9.8
11.3
2.4
2.2
2.7
20.9
20.8
21.0
vs Similar (43)
10.6
10.3
10.8
3.7
4.0
3.5
25.5
25.3
25.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
60%
68%
52%
56%
48%
78%
80%
76%
% under line
36%
40%
32%
48%
44%
52%
22%
20%
24%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.7
10.0
2.8
2.8
2.7
26.0
25.6
26.5
vs Stronger (10)
10.1
9.0
11.2
2.5
2.6
2.4
23.9
24.8
23.0
vs Similar (17)
9.8
8.9
10.8
2.7
3.0
2.4
25.5
24.9
26.1
vs Weaker (23)
8.7
8.5
8.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
27.4
26.5
28.2
% over line
38%
20%
56%
26%
24%
28%
84%
84%
84%
% under line
62%
80%
44%
74%
76%
72%
16%
16%
16%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rangers
10.9
Ross County
10.8
Celtic
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Motherwell
10.5
ST Mirren
10.5
Dundee Utd
10.5
Dundee
10.3
Hibernian
10.3
ST Johnstone
9.4
Aberdeen
9.3
Livingston
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Dundee Utd
3.5
Motherwell
3.5
Heart Of Midlothian
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Rangers
3.3
Livingston
3.3
Dundee
3.3
ST Johnstone
3.3
Hibernian
3.2
ST Mirren
3.1
Aberdeen
2.8
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.0
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
ST Johnstone
25.5
Hibernian
25.3
Ross County
25.0
Motherwell
24.8
Livingston
24.7
ST Mirren
24.2
Dundee
24.1
Dundee Utd
23.8
Rangers
23.1
Celtic
22.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.9%
Under 9.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.8%
Under 21.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.57
0.57
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.48
0.63
0.54
0.62
0.43
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.57
0.46
0.46
0.18
0.65
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.20
0.60
0.20
0.00
0.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.36
0.57
0.33
0.67
0.38
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.43
0.93
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.74
0.46
0.92
0.64
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.43
0.46
0.15
0.47
0.65
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.30
0.40
0.00
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.00
0.62
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Tawanda Maswanhise20%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger60%
Martin Moormann50%
Joe Hodge33%
Tom Sparrow25%
Alex Lowry20%
Jamie Knight-Lebel20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Aberdeen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin Nisbet33%
Lewis Mayo33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aremu Afeez67%
Lewis Mayo67%
Daniel Happe33%
Chris Cadden33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Toyosi Olusanya33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Lewis Smith0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
Kevin Nisbet33%
Marius Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
Lewis Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
Nesta Guinness-Walker0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Motherwell's squad is €1m more valuable than Aberdeen's (€16m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €6m more valuable than Aberdeen's (€10m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Motherwell's midfield is €3m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Motherwell's defence is €2m less valuable than Aberdeen's (€5m vs €7m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee