Motherwell are the clear favourites, with a 57% chance of victory, a 24% chance of a draw and a 19% chance of a Dundee United win. The model predicts a 2-goal total, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 11.6%. Motherwell have been solid at home, scoring an average of 1.55 goals and conceding only 0.36 against similar opposition, while Dundee United have struggled away, scoring 1.18 and conceding 2.0. The match is expected to see 2.9 goals on average. The suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3%, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0% with a 6% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0% with a 3% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.1% with a 2% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.2% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.0% with a 4% edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.0% with a 5% edge.
Results analysis
Motherwell’s victory over Dundee United extended a winning streak, confirming the model’s home-win prediction with a 3-0 scoreline. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 57% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Under 7.5 hit at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.0%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.0%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 93.0%, and Home +2 handicap hit at 92.9%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every selection’s outcome was noted accurately.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motherwell win✓ Hit
56.6%
Avg Implied 45.4% · @ 2.07
Edge
+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.56
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Bet365
3.70
Superbet
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Dundee Utd win✗ Miss
19.0%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.32
Edge
-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.17
1.57
0.79
1.38
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
1.38
2.12
1.50
1.75
1.25
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.57
0.86
1.60
0.40
1.55
1.27
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.53
1.44
1.00
1.14
2.14
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.60
1.00
1.67
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.43
1.42
0.92
1.18
2.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.7%
@ 1.21+2.1%
Under 1.5
20.3%
@ 4.18-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
Pinnacle
4.45
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.70-0.1%
Under 2.5
44.5%
@ 2.13+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.72
Under
SBO
2.21
Pinnacle
2.20
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.2%
@ 2.72-1.4%
Under 3.5
66.8%
@ 1.43+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
Betano
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Superbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.3%
@ 1.58-3.5%
No
44.7%
@ 2.25+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.57
No
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Betfair
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 6.55+4.7%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.97+4.3%
2-0
9.7%@ 10.41+5.4%
1-0
9.3%@ 8.51+4.0%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.93+2.8%
3-1
6.2%@ 13.60+2.9%
3-0 ✓
6.1%@ 17.52+3.6%
1-2
5.4%@ 10.73+1.2%
Motherwell goals ↓
Dundee Utd goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
4.5%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
1
9.3%
12%
5.4%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.9%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.1%
6.2%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.9%
2.9%
1.5%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Dundee Utd goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Motherwell is 0.42 points better than Dundee Utd in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Motherwell is 0.26 goals better than Dundee Utd in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Motherwell is 0.63 goals better than Dundee Utd in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Motherwell is 15.6 percentage points better than Dundee Utd in terms of average possession (58% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 3.0 · Against 5.9 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dundee Utd
For 4.3 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.4
8.8
4.6
4.3
4.7
26.2
26.7
25.8
vs Stronger (9)
7.7
7.5
7.8
4.4
5.5
3.6
25.0
27.2
23.2
vs Similar (40)
8.3
7.4
9.1
4.7
4.1
5.2
26.5
26.5
26.4
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
36%
19%
50%
68%
65%
70%
78%
76%
79%
% under line
64%
81%
50%
32%
35%
30%
22%
24%
21%
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.4
9.1
3.5
3.3
3.8
22.8
22.1
23.4
vs Stronger (9)
13.2
14.4
11.3
3.6
4.0
2.7
20.6
20.2
21.3
vs Similar (39)
9.5
10.4
8.7
3.7
3.2
4.1
23.3
22.8
23.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
57%
71%
43%
52%
46%
58%
55%
52%
57%
% under line
43%
29%
57%
48%
54%
42%
45%
48%
43%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.8
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.4
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.9
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.6
Motherwell
26.0
Aberdeen
25.8
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
Dundee
21.7
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.6%
@ 1.95-6.0%
Under 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.77+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.04
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Under
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.76
Unibet
1.76
10Bet
1.73
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.6%
@ 1.54+1.7%
Under 3.5
38.4%
@ 2.31-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.49
Under
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.25
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.3%
Under 21.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Motherwell or Draw✓ Hit
81.0%
Avg Implied 71.9% · @ 1.30
Edge
+9.1%
57%
24%
19%
covers Motherwell + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Motherwell or Dundee Utd✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.26
Edge
+1.5%
57%
24%
19%
covers Motherwell + Dundee Utd
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Dundee Utd✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied 54.0% · @ 1.74
Edge
-10.6%
57%
24%
19%
covers Draw + Dundee Utd
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
SBO
1.80
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.8%
@ 1.17+5.0%
Under
15.2%
@ 4.62-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
56.2%
@ 1.88+6.5%
Under
43.8%
@ 1.86-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.88
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
29.3%
@ 3.74+4.3%
Under
70.7%
@ 1.24-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.10
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 8.07+0.8%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.05-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
7.60
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.9%
@ 1.31-7.1%
Under
36.1%
@ 3.21+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.47
Superbet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.1%
@ 2.55-9.6%
Under
72.9%
@ 1.48+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.70
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.59
1xBet
2.58
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 5.97-7.2%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.10+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Dundee Utd over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 17.31-3.5%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
26.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Motherwell, so a minus line means Motherwell give that many goals of a start and Dundee Utd receive them. At -1, Motherwell must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Motherwell win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Motherwell)Actual: Motherwell
Motherwell -2
16.0%
@ 7.38+3.9%
Draw -2
17.7%
@ 5.65+1.9%
Dundee Utd +2
66.3%
@ 1.24-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Handicap -1 (Motherwell)Actual: Motherwell
Motherwell -1
33.7%
@ 3.58+8.6%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 3.80-0.7%
Dundee Utd +1
43.4%
@ 1.75-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.58
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Handicap +1 (Motherwell)Actual: Motherwell
Motherwell +1
81.0%
@ 1.30+11.7%
Draw +1
11.9%
@ 5.06-5.9%
Dundee Utd -1
7.1%
@ 6.94-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Away
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Handicap +2 (Motherwell)Actual: Motherwell
Motherwell +2
92.9%
@ 1.07+8.0%
Draw +2
5.2%
@ 9.44-4.5%
Dundee Utd -2
2.0%
@ 16.60-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Away
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
18.00
Unibet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
0.62
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.38
0.70
0.30
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.44
0.38
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.42
0.33
0.55
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.7%
@ 1.31+1.5%
Under 0.5
27.3%
@ 3.24-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Under
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
34.7%
@ 2.45-3.3%
Under 1.5
65.3%
@ 1.51+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.56
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Under
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
BetVictor
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.7%
@ 5.78-2.3%
Under 2.5
86.3%
@ 1.10+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Superbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
57.4%
@ 1.78+4.9%
Under
42.6%
@ 1.96-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Unibet
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Under
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.7%
@ 4.74+3.2%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.15-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Betano
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 12.12-3.4%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.8%
@ 2.15-7.4%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.64+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.19
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 6.91-6.3%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.07+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
7.50
1xBet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.95
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 17.25-4.8%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.86
0.36
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.00
0.25
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.48
0.90
0.10
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundee Utd) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundee Utd
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
1.00
0.62
0.64
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.58
0.64
1.09
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.7%
@ 1.18-0.1%
Under 0.5
21.3%
@ 4.39+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
10Bet
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.35
1xBet
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.5%
@ 1.87-4.4%
Under 1.5
54.5%
@ 1.86+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.7%
@ 3.69-6.4%
Under 2.5
81.3%
@ 1.24+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Unibet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.1%
@ 1.54+2.8%
Under
36.9%
@ 2.34-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.51
Under
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
26.5%
@ 3.47-0.1%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.26+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 8.93-3.4%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Dundee Utd over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.7%
@ 1.80-8.8%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.92+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Dundee Utd over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.3%
@ 4.92-7.5%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.14+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.80
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Dundee Utd over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 12.75-5.4%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.02+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.03
BetVictor
1.03
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.6%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
83.1%
1.16
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.0%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.0%
1.30
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.1%
1.27
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.7%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.7%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.3%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.6%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.28
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+0.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
72.9%
1.48
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.7%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
70.7%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-4.3%
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
1.46
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
I. Said20%
Lukas Fadinger17%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger50%
M. Moormann40%
Stephen O'Donnell33%
Joe Hodge25%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
Jamie Knight-Lebel17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Emmanuel0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
I. Said20%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
S. Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise50%
A. Lowry33%
M. Emmanuel33%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
Lukas Fadinger17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Dundee Utd
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Agyei25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
D. Bennie0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vicko Ševelj67%
D. Bennie40%
Abdoulaye Yoro33%
Dylan Tait25%
William Ferry20%
B. Esselink20%
L. Rose20%
Z. Sapsford20%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
M. Merghem0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Merghem25%
J. Randall20%
William Ferry20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
Dylan Tait0%
J. Rawlins0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
D. Bennie0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Merghem25%
Dylan Tait25%
D. Bennie20%
Vicko Ševelj0%
Panutche Camará0%
J. Walton0%
N. Farrugia0%
J. Rawlins0%
J. Randall0%
William Ferry0%
Idjessi Metsoko0%
Michael Forbes0%
B. Esselink0%
L. Rose0%
Z. Sapsford0%
Emmanuel Agyei0%
Abdoulaye Yoro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Motherwell's squad is €5m more valuable than Dundee Utd's (€16m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Motherwell's attack is €6m more valuable than Dundee Utd's (€10m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Motherwell's midfield is €1m less valuable than Dundee Utd's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Motherwell and Dundee Utd have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Kilmarnock