The model favours an away win, giving Hearts a 42% chance, a 31% chance for Motherwell and a 26% chance of a draw. With an expected total of 3.0 goals, the most likely total is two goals, a 24% probability, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, at 12.3%. Motherwell, at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.58 goals scored and 1.42 conceded, while Hearts, on the road, averages 2.75 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 90.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 81.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 81.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 80.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 72.4% and Under 11.5 corners at 71.1%. Each pick is presented with its probability, and no other figures are repeated.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Heart Of Midlothian, did not come through, as Motherwell secured a 2-0 home win. The model had tipped an away win with a 42% probability, but that call was wrong. Motherwell’s recent form shows a draw, while Hearts were unbeaten in their last five. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls (90.7%) hit, Over 21.5 fouls (81.6%) hit, Over 2.5 cards (81.2%) missed, Over 1.5 (80.8%) hit, Under 5.5 cards (72.4%) hit, and Under 11.5 corners (71.1%) missed. The final score of 2-0 confirms the home side’s triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motherwell win✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.54
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.52
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
42.5%
Avg Implied 46.5% · @ 2.03
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.47
1.40
1.73
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.40
0.67
3.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.36
1.28
1.58
1.42
1.15
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.77
2.20
0.87
1.53
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
2.33
0.89
2.00
1.20
2.75
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
1.68
0.68
2.33
0.67
1.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.1%
@ 2.00+9.7%
Under 2.5
42.9%
@ 1.80-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
Motherwell goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
7.1%
6.7%
3.6%
1.5%
1
5.8%
12%
9.1%
4.9%
2.0%
2
4.7%
7.6%
6.1%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.1%
3.4%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Motherwell is 0.39 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Motherwell is 0.32 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Motherwell is 0.45 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 3.8 · Against 7.8 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 14.4 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 6.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 14.3 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.8
11.4
3.6
3.8
3.5
25.5
25.7
25.3
vs Stronger (9)
12.1
11.8
12.5
2.7
2.4
3.0
21.8
21.6
22.0
vs Similar (41)
10.3
9.4
11.2
3.9
4.1
3.6
26.3
26.6
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
58%
71%
50%
50%
50%
78%
81%
75%
% under line
36%
42%
29%
50%
50%
50%
22%
19%
25%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.6
3.6
3.4
3.8
25.9
25.6
26.3
vs Stronger (4)
11.8
10.5
13.0
3.8
1.5
6.0
24.0
20.0
28.0
vs Similar (12)
11.7
12.9
10.0
4.3
4.4
4.2
25.8
26.3
25.2
vs Weaker (34)
10.1
9.6
10.5
3.3
3.2
3.4
26.2
25.9
26.5
% over line
62%
58%
67%
52%
46%
58%
82%
81%
83%
% under line
38%
42%
33%
48%
54%
42%
18%
19%
17%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dundee Utd
10.7
Dundee
10.7
Rangers
10.6
Motherwell
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.6
Celtic
10.5
Ross County
10.5
ST Mirren
10.2
Hibernian
10.0
Aberdeen
9.6
ST Johnstone
9.4
Livingston
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
ST Johnstone
3.6
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.6
Heart Of Midlothian
3.6
Dundee
3.5
Rangers
3.4
Livingston
3.4
Ross County
3.3
Aberdeen
3.3
Hibernian
3.2
ST Mirren
3.2
Celtic
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
27.0
Heart Of Midlothian
25.9
ST Johnstone
25.6
Motherwell
25.5
Hibernian
25.4
Livingston
25.2
Ross County
25.0
Dundee
24.9
Dundee Utd
24.7
ST Mirren
24.1
Rangers
23.2
Celtic
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
63.6%
Under 3.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
81.6%
Under 21.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.20
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.68
0.75
0.58
0.23
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
1.00
0.27
0.73
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.22
0.80
0.40
1.25
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.37
1.11
0.22
0.60
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.67
1.07
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.60
0.83
0.83
0.92
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.20
0.60
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.67
1.20
0.80
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.32
1.22
0.44
0.50
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Tawanda Maswanhise20%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger60%
Martin Moormann50%
Joe Hodge33%
Tom Sparrow25%
Alex Lowry20%
Jamie Knight-Lebel20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Motherwell's squad is €6m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€16m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€10m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Motherwell's midfield is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →