The contest between Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian is a tight one, with the model favouring a Motherwell victory. The probabilities are 39% for a home win, 27% for a draw and 33% for an away win, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a fairly open game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Motherwell, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Hearts, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.3%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 77.3% and Under 5.5 cards at 76%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are assigned win chances.
Results analysis
The final score was 2-1, a home win that kept Motherwell’s recent run alive after a draw. The model’s favourite was Home win, with a 39% probability, and it proved correct. The most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.8%, but the match settled on 2-1. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88%, Over 1.5 goals hit at 79.3%, Over 2.5 cards missed at 78.4%, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 77.3%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 76%. Overall, the prediction was largely accurate, with a few over-estimates in disciplinary figures.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motherwell win✓ Hit
39.4%
Avg Implied 32.3% · @ 2.93
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.39
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian win✗ Miss
33.5%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.37
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.60
1.27
1.60
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
3.00
0.50
3.75
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.25
1.55
0.82
0.77
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.13
1.87
0.73
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (10)
2.00
1.10
2.80
0.60
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.57
1.62
0.50
1.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.97+6.8%
Under 2.5
45.2%
@ 1.82-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
2-1 ✓
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.3%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.0%
Motherwell goals ↓
Heart Of Midlothian goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
6.6%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
1
7.3%
13%
8.0%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.7%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.2%
4.4%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Heart Of Midlothian goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Motherwell is 0.39 points worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.61).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Motherwell is 0.32 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Motherwell is 0.45 goals worse than Heart Of Midlothian in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 5.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 11.9 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heart Of Midlothian
For 6.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.1 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.3
11.4
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.6
27.2
26.0
vs Stronger (8)
12.4
11.8
13.0
3.4
3.2
3.5
25.2
26.2
24.2
vs Similar (42)
10.0
8.8
11.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
26.9
27.4
26.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
44%
68%
58%
56%
60%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
44%
56%
32%
42%
44%
40%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.2
10.0
4.0
3.7
4.2
24.6
24.6
24.6
vs Stronger (7)
11.7
13.3
10.5
4.4
5.3
3.8
22.7
22.0
23.2
vs Similar (14)
9.9
10.0
9.7
4.1
3.6
4.6
25.5
25.9
25.1
vs Weaker (29)
9.9
9.7
10.1
3.8
3.5
4.1
24.7
24.6
24.7
% over line
56%
56%
56%
58%
48%
68%
76%
76%
76%
% under line
44%
44%
44%
42%
52%
32%
24%
24%
24%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.7
Dundee
11.2
ST Mirren
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.9
Rangers
10.9
Ross County
10.7
Motherwell
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Hibernian
9.9
Aberdeen
9.8
Livingston
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Hibernian
4.2
Rangers
4.1
Aberdeen
4.1
Ross County
4.0
Heart Of Midlothian
4.0
Livingston
4.0
Motherwell
4.0
Dundee Utd
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.7
ST Mirren
3.3
Celtic
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
26.6
Aberdeen
26.6
Livingston
25.4
Dundee
25.0
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Ross County
24.6
Hibernian
24.6
ST Johnstone
24.1
Dundee Utd
23.2
ST Mirren
23.0
Rangers
22.7
Celtic
22.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.0%
Under 9.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.7%
Under 3.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
77.3%
Under 21.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.73
0.87
0.07
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.67
0.50
1.75
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.75
0.82
0.55
0.08
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.93
0.40
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.40
1.40
0.40
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.21
0.88
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.50
0.73
0.27
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Heart Of Midlothian) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Heart Of Midlothian
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.93
0.33
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.70
1.40
0.20
0.60
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.36
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heart Of Midlothian over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Tawanda Maswanhise20%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger60%
Martin Moormann50%
Joe Hodge33%
Tom Sparrow25%
Alex Lowry20%
Jamie Knight-Lebel20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Ibrahim Said20%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Lukas Fadinger20%
Alex Lowry20%
Emmanuel Longelo20%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Martin Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Sebastian Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Heart Of Midlothian · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
James Wilson50%
Calvin Miller33%
Josh McPake25%
Tom Renaud25%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Pierre Landry Kaboré17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Rogers Mato0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Ba-Sy33%
Pierre Landry Kaboré33%
Tomas Magnusson20%
Oisin McEntee17%
Cláudio Braga17%
Jordi Altena17%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cláudio Braga33%
Rogers Mato33%
Josh McPake25%
Sabah Kerjota25%
Blair Spittal17%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Laurent Mendy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cláudio Braga50%
Laurent Mendy33%
Tomas Magnusson0%
Beau Reus0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Jamie McCart0%
Calvin Miller0%
Blair Spittal0%
Christian Borchgrevink0%
Josh McPake0%
Tom Renaud0%
Oisin McEntee0%
Amadou Ba-Sy0%
Pierre Landry Kaboré0%
Rogers Mato0%
James Wilson0%
Jordi Altena0%
Sabah Kerjota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Motherwell's squad is €6m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€16m vs €22m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€10m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Motherwell's midfield is €3m less valuable than Heart Of Midlothian's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian have a similar defence value (both €5m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Rangers
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
ST Johnstone
Dundee