This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.50
1.43
0.75
1.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.83
1.75
0.83
1.50
0.83
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.28
2.00
1.38
0.70
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.20-2.5%
Under 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.65+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
9.0%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.1%
1-2
6.7%
0-2 â
5.3%
Motherwell goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.0%
5.3%
1.8%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
6.7%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.1%
8.4%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.5%
3.5%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Rangers
2.68
Celtic
2.03
Hibernian
1.66
Aberdeen
1.47
Livingston
1.18
ST Mirren
1.18
Motherwell
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.18
Dundee Utd
1.16
Ross County
1.03
Kilmarnock
0.95
Hamilton
0.79
Motherwell is 0.24 points better than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.95).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.42
Celtic
2.05
Hibernian
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.13
Livingston
1.11
Motherwell
1.03
ST Mirren
0.97
Aberdeen
0.95
ST Johnstone
0.95
Ross County
0.92
Hamilton
0.89
Dundee Utd
0.84
Motherwell is 0.11 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.13).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rangers
0.34
Celtic
0.76
Hibernian
0.92
Aberdeen
1.00
ST Mirren
1.18
ST Johnstone
1.21
Dundee Utd
1.32
Livingston
1.42
Kilmarnock
1.42
Motherwell
1.45
Ross County
1.74
Hamilton
1.76
Motherwell is 0.03 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (1.45 vs 1.42).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 4.4 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
For 4.4 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.8
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 15.5 · Total 27.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.5
10.4
3.6
3.4
3.8
24.9
23.4
26.4
vs Stronger (9)
10.4
9.8
11.2
2.8
3.2
2.2
21.2
22.6
19.5
vs Similar (37)
10.3
10.5
10.1
3.8
3.4
4.2
25.7
23.7
27.7
vs Weaker (4)
11.8
12.0
11.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
25.5
22.5
28.5
% over line
62%
65%
58%
52%
46%
58%
78%
73%
83%
% under line
38%
35%
42%
48%
54%
42%
22%
27%
17%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.8
10.9
3.4
3.4
3.4
24.6
25.6
23.7
vs Stronger (19)
10.5
10.1
11.0
3.1
3.4
2.7
24.0
26.6
21.1
vs Similar (31)
10.3
9.6
10.9
3.6
3.3
3.8
25.0
24.9
25.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
52%
44%
50%
56%
44%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
50%
44%
56%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Hamilton
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.2
Rangers
11.2
Ross County
10.9
Hibernian
10.7
ST Mirren
10.5
Motherwell
10.4
Kilmarnock
10.4
Celtic
10.3
Livingston
9.6
ST Johnstone
9.6
Aberdeen
9.4
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.6
Dundee Utd
3.4
Kilmarnock
3.4
ST Johnstone
3.4
Rangers
3.3
Ross County
3.3
Hibernian
3.3
ST Mirren
3.2
Celtic
3.2
Hamilton
3.1
Livingston
3.0
Aberdeen
3.0
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.6
Motherwell
24.9
Hamilton
24.8
ST Johnstone
24.7
Kilmarnock
24.6
Livingston
24.4
Hibernian
24.3
Ross County
24.3
ST Mirren
23.7
Dundee Utd
23.2
Rangers
23.0
Celtic
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.5%
Under 9.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.8%
Under 21.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.32
0.70
0.30
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.57
0.79
0.50
0.69
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.92
0.33
1.17
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.61
0.75
0.50
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.87
0.47
1.13
0.20
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.40
0.67
2.33
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (22)
0.36
0.50
0.50
0.70
0.25
0.33
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.93
0.64
0.25
0.81
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.33
0.17
1.33
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
1.25
0.88
0.30
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Regan Charles-Cook40%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
I. Said20%
Lukas Fadinger17%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger50%
M. Moormann40%
Stephen O'Donnell33%
Joe Hodge25%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
Jamie Knight-Lebel17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Emmanuel0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Williams33%
I. Said20%
T. Sparrow20%
A. Lowry17%
M. Emmanuel17%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
S. Palmer-Houlden0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawanda Maswanhise50%
A. Lowry33%
M. Emmanuel33%
S. Palmer-Houlden25%
Lukas Fadinger17%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
A. Paulsen0%
M. Moormann0%
Joe Hodge0%
I. Said0%
J. Girdwood-Reich0%
T. Sparrow0%
Dylan Williams0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Kilmarnock · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Greg Kiltie25%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen25%
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joe Hugill50%
B. Rice50%
Tyreece John-Jules25%
J. Brandon25%
Greg Kiltie25%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
G. Stanger0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Lowery50%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
Joe Hugill0%
B. Rice0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Joe Hugill25%
Tyreece John-Jules0%
Mark O'Hara0%
Tom Lowery0%
M. Stryjek0%
A. Tshibola0%
J. Brandon0%
G. Stanger0%
Greg Kiltie0%
M. SchjÃļnning-Larsen0%
E. Ring0%
B. Rice0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Motherwell's squad is €9m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€16m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €7m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€10m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Motherwell and Kilmarnock have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Motherwell's defence is €3m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€5m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rangers
Celtic
Hibernian
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
ST Johnstone
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Ross County