This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.37
1.69
1.19
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.17
1.00
2.33
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.14
1.83
0.92
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.3%
@ 2.10-2.6%
Under 2.5
57.7%
@ 1.71+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
No
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.6%
0-0
10.6%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.1%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.0%
Motherwell goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.1%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.1%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.61
Partick
2.50
Rangers
2.42
Aberdeen
1.50
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Hibernian
1.37
Motherwell
1.32
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.21
ST Johnstone
1.13
Kilmarnock
1.05
Ross County
0.93
Dundee Utd
0.82
Queen's Park
0.00
Ayr Utd
0.00
Motherwell is 0.26 points better than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Partick
3.17
Celtic
3.00
Rangers
2.45
Heart Of Midlothian
1.66
Hibernian
1.50
Queen's Park
1.50
Aberdeen
1.47
Motherwell
1.39
ST Mirren
1.13
ST Johnstone
1.08
Dundee Utd
1.05
Ross County
1.00
Kilmarnock
0.97
Livingston
0.95
Ayr Utd
0.00
Motherwell is 0.42 goals better than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.89
Rangers
0.97
Partick
1.00
Motherwell
1.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.50
Hibernian
1.55
ST Johnstone
1.55
Ross County
1.57
Livingston
1.58
Aberdeen
1.58
ST Mirren
1.61
Kilmarnock
1.63
Dundee Utd
1.84
Queen's Park
4.00
Ayr Utd
4.00
Motherwell is 0.29 goals better than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (1.34 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 5.1 · Against 6.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kilmarnock
For 6.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 11.8 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
9.8
12.0
2.5
2.1
2.8
27.1
27.3
26.9
vs Stronger (10)
13.3
11.8
15.3
2.1
2.2
2.0
25.0
26.2
23.3
vs Similar (38)
10.2
9.2
11.2
2.6
2.2
2.9
27.7
27.7
27.8
vs Weaker (2)
12.0
-
12.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
65%
34%
25%
42%
94%
88%
100%
% under line
42%
50%
35%
66%
75%
58%
6%
12%
0%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.3
9.6
2.1
2.4
1.7
22.6
22.4
22.9
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.9
9.9
9.9
2.0
2.3
1.7
21.9
21.6
22.2
vs Weaker (8)
10.0
11.5
8.5
3.8
4.8
2.8
24.8
24.8
24.8
% over line
48%
41%
56%
24%
28%
20%
64%
59%
69%
% under line
52%
59%
44%
76%
72%
80%
36%
41%
31%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.6
ST Mirren
11.1
Dundee Utd
10.7
Motherwell
10.7
Rangers
10.7
Ross County
10.4
Aberdeen
10.0
ST Johnstone
10.0
Hibernian
9.9
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
Kilmarnock
9.8
Partick
9.6
Livingston
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rangers
4.3
Hibernian
4.2
Aberdeen
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Livingston
4.0
Motherwell
4.0
Ross County
3.9
ST Johnstone
3.8
Dundee Utd
3.8
ST Mirren
3.3
Kilmarnock
3.3
Partick
3.2
Celtic
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Motherwell
26.7
Aberdeen
26.6
Livingston
25.1
Hibernian
24.5
Heart Of Midlothian
24.1
Ross County
24.1
ST Johnstone
24.0
Kilmarnock
23.9
ST Mirren
23.0
Dundee Utd
22.7
Rangers
21.4
Celtic
20.7
Partick
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.3%
Under 9.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.8%
Under 3.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.4%
Under 21.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.43
0.86
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.67
0.33
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.68
0.50
0.90
0.58
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.69
0.50
0.29
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.64
0.92
0.33
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.57
0.64
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.50
0.67
1.67
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.55
0.60
0.40
0.92
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kilmarnock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.69
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
1.00
1.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.50
0.92
0.58
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kevin van Veen53%
Stuart McKinstry19%
Max Johnston18%
Blair Spittal17%
Louis Moult14%
Callum Slattery14%
Jonathan Obika11%
Joseph Efford11%
Ross Tierney11%
Mikael Mandron10%
Bevis Mugabi8%
Sondre Solholm Johansen5%
Sean Goss3%
Matt Penney0%
Shane Blaney0%
Josh Morris0%
Riku Danzaki0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Kelly0%
Ricki Lamie0%
Paul McGinn0%
Harrison Paton0%
Calum Butcher0%
Connor Shields0%
Jack Aitchison0%
Barry Maguire0%
Dean Cornelius0%
James Furlong0%
Dan Casey0%
Oliver Crankshaw0%
Lennon Miller0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Callum Slattery45%
Dan Casey42%
Jonathan Obika33%
Josh Morris33%
Matt Penney31%
Louis Moult29%
Sean Goss26%
Ricki Lamie25%
Oliver Crankshaw25%
Lennon Miller25%
James Furlong19%
Stephen O'Donnell19%
Calum Butcher15%
Stuart McKinstry14%
Harrison Paton14%
Kevin van Veen13%
Shane Blaney12%
Joseph Efford11%
Paul McGinn11%
Jack Aitchison10%
Barry Maguire10%
Blair Spittal6%
Sondre Solholm Johansen5%
Liam Kelly5%
Connor Shields5%
Dean Cornelius3%
Mikael Mandron0%
Bevis Mugabi0%
Riku Danzaki0%
Ross Tierney0%
Max Johnston0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Blair Spittal19%
James Furlong19%
Max Johnston18%
Joseph Efford11%
Sean Goss11%
Connor Shields11%
Mikael Mandron10%
Callum Slattery7%
Matt Penney6%
Kevin van Veen5%
Sondre Solholm Johansen5%
Stuart McKinstry5%
Liam Kelly3%
Bevis Mugabi0%
Louis Moult0%
Shane Blaney0%
Jonathan Obika0%
Josh Morris0%
Riku Danzaki0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Ricki Lamie0%
Paul McGinn0%
Harrison Paton0%
Calum Butcher0%
Jack Aitchison0%
Barry Maguire0%
Dean Cornelius0%
Ross Tierney0%
Dan Casey0%
Oliver Crankshaw0%
Lennon Miller0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kevin van Veen37%
Jonathan Obika11%
Connor Shields11%
Stuart McKinstry5%
Blair Spittal3%
Sean Goss3%
Mikael Mandron0%
Bevis Mugabi0%
Callum Slattery0%
Matt Penney0%
Louis Moult0%
Shane Blaney0%
Josh Morris0%
Joseph Efford0%
Riku Danzaki0%
Sondre Solholm Johansen0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Kelly0%
Ricki Lamie0%
Paul McGinn0%
Harrison Paton0%
Calum Butcher0%
Jack Aitchison0%
Barry Maguire0%
Dean Cornelius0%
James Furlong0%
Ross Tierney0%
Dan Casey0%
Oliver Crankshaw0%
Max Johnston0%
Lennon Miller0%
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Danny Armstrong22%
Kyle Vassell21%
Christopher Stokes13%
Ash Taylor12%
Scott Robinson12%
Joe Wright12%
Christian Doidge11%
Liam Donnelly9%
Jeriel Dorsett9%
Kyle Lafferty8%
Innes Cameron6%
Bradley Lyons5%
Liam Polworth4%
Kerr Mcinroy0%
Sam Walker0%
Jordan Jones0%
Alan Power0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Fraser Murray0%
Oli Shaw0%
Blair Alston0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Jack Sanders0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Luke Chambers0%
David Watson0%
Bobby Wales0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Donnelly36%
Rory McKenzie31%
Kyle Lafferty25%
Danny Armstrong22%
David Watson20%
Ash Taylor19%
Alan Power16%
Christian Doidge15%
Joe Wright15%
Kyle Vassell14%
Jordan Jones14%
Innes Cameron12%
Bradley Lyons11%
Oli Shaw8%
Ben Chrisene8%
Luke Chambers7%
Christopher Stokes7%
Lewis Mayo6%
Fraser Murray5%
Liam Polworth4%
Sam Walker4%
Kerr Mcinroy0%
Blair Alston0%
Scott Robinson0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Jack Sanders0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Bobby Wales0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Danny Armstrong16%
Kyle Vassell14%
Christian Doidge11%
Ash Taylor9%
Liam Polworth8%
Luke Chambers7%
Innes Cameron6%
Jordan Jones5%
Lewis Mayo3%
Rory McKenzie3%
Kerr Mcinroy0%
Kyle Lafferty0%
Christopher Stokes0%
Sam Walker0%
Joe Wright0%
Alan Power0%
Fraser Murray0%
Oli Shaw0%
Blair Alston0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Scott Robinson0%
Bradley Lyons0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Jack Sanders0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
David Watson0%
Bobby Wales0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kyle Vassell36%
Oli Shaw25%
Kerr Mcinroy17%
Danny Armstrong16%
Christian Doidge15%
Joe Wright9%
Kyle Lafferty8%
Liam Donnelly5%
Liam Polworth4%
Ash Taylor3%
Rory McKenzie3%
Christopher Stokes0%
Sam Walker0%
Jordan Jones0%
Alan Power0%
Fraser Murray0%
Blair Alston0%
Scott Robinson0%
Bradley Lyons0%
Innes Cameron0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Zachary Hemming0%
Ben Chrisene0%
Jack Sanders0%
Jeriel Dorsett0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Luke Chambers0%
David Watson0%
Bobby Wales0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
Motherwell's squad is €9m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€16m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €7m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€10m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
Motherwell and Kilmarnock have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Motherwell's defence is €3m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€5m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →