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Motherwell vs Kilmarnock Result & Analysis

Date: 18/08/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 0-0
Motherwell
Motherwell
Vs
45%
29%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Scotland: League Cup
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Motherwell win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MotherwellMotherwell

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-541W51W03L12L30W11D31W00D00D12LH·LIV04/05A·ROS11/05A·HIB15/05H·ST 19/05H·EDI13/07A·MON16/07A·CLY20/07H·PAR28/07H·ROS03/08A·RAN10/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.371.601.131.601.60
vs Stronger (4)1.002.000.502.501.501.50
vs Similar (24)1.581.331.671.001.501.67
vs Weaker (2)3.000.503.000.003.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L10W05L11D11D01L04L22D03L10WA·RAN05/05A·ST 11/05H·CEL15/05A·DUN18/05H·CER25/07A·CER01/08A·CEL04/08H·TRO08/08H·ST 11/08A·TRO15/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.331.401.470.931.20
vs Stronger (13)0.922.001.001.860.832.17
vs Similar (17)1.350.821.751.121.000.56
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.8%
Under 2.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.2%
0-0 ✓
10.1%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.5%
Motherwell goals ↓
Kilmarnock goals →
01234
010%7.7%4.5%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.4%2.2%0.5%
28.9%9.0%4.5%1.5%0.4%
34.2%4.2%2.1%0.7%0.2%
41.5%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = Kilmarnock goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Livingston
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
Falkirk
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
ST Johnstone
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Queen's Park
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
Partick
1.75
Montrose
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Kilmarnock
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Arbroath
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Dumbarton
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
Elgin
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Buckie Thistle
0.00
Motherwell is 0.71 points better than Kilmarnock in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Rangers
2.50
Falkirk
2.50
Clyde
2.25
Ayr Utd
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Livingston
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Buckie Thistle
1.25
Dumbarton
1.00
Dunfermline
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Morton
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Brechin
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Kelty Hearts
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
Kilmarnock
0.00
ST Mirren
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Motherwell is 1.43 goals better than Kilmarnock in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 0.00).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
Dundee
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Rangers
1.00
ST Mirren
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Falkirk
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Dundee Utd
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Partick
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Montrose
1.25
East Fife
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Ayr Utd
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Celtic
1.50
Morton
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Stirling
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Peterhead
2.75
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
Edinburgh City
4.00
East Kilbride
4.00
Buckie Thistle
4.25
Motherwell is 0.71 goals worse than Kilmarnock in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 0.00).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

MotherwellMotherwell

For 6.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

17046937348486571046113441012101212111710148A·RANH·ROSH·ST A·HIBA·ROSH·LIVA·ABEH·HIBA·DUNH·ST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

602211123211242112212522622A·RANH·ROSH·ST A·HIBA·ROSH·LIVA·ABEH·HIBA·DUNH·ST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.1 · Against 9.5 · Total 16.6

⚠ïļ Fouls

230895117956414812149710479817161611182023171117A·RANH·ROSH·ST A·HIBA·ROSH·LIVA·ABEH·HIBA·DUNH·ST
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

KilmarnockKilmarnock

For 3.7 · Against 6.9 · Total 10.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

17039441103429581168462431281171113171287A·TROH·ST A·CELA·DUNH·CELA·ST A·RANH·HEAA·ST H·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 0.8 · Total 4.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

10051642211141224461023252244A·TROH·ST A·CELA·CERH·CERA·DUNH·CELA·ST A·RANH·HEA
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

280117141411710771213109119614861518281817192320152221A·TROH·ST A·CELA·DUNH·CELA·ST A·RANH·HEAA·ST H·ROS
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MotherwellMotherwell

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.69.212.03.23.52.921.621.921.4
vs Stronger (8)10.38.711.53.13.72.821.122.020.5
vs Similar (40)10.69.212.13.43.63.121.821.821.7
vs Weaker (2)---0.00.00.0---
% over line62%50%75%44%52%36%50%50%50%
% under line38%50%25%56%48%64%50%50%50%
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KilmarnockKilmarnock

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.010.511.43.63.33.922.623.421.9
vs Stronger (18)12.111.112.94.03.44.620.922.119.9
vs Similar (32)10.210.110.23.43.23.623.824.223.3
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line68%65%71%52%44%60%51%60%43%
% under line32%35%29%48%56%40%49%40%57%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Celtic
12.0
Rangers
11.4
Heart Of Midlothian
11.4
Falkirk
11.2
Kelty Hearts
11.2
Dundee Utd
11.1
Ross County
11.1
Dundee
11.0
Kilmarnock
11.0
ST Mirren
10.8
Motherwell
10.8
Morton
10.7
Dunfermline
10.7
Dumbarton
10.6
Arbroath
10.6
Aberdeen
10.5
Stenhousemuir
10.4
Hibernian
10.4
Inverness CT
10.3
Stirling
10.3
Cove Rangers
10.2
Stranraer
10.2
ST Johnstone
10.1
Edinburgh City
10.1
Montrose
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.0
Brechin
10.0
Forfar
10.0
Airdrie United
10.0
Partick
9.9
Livingston
9.7
Clyde
9.7
East Fife
9.5
Spartans
9.3
Peterhead
8.8
Elgin
8.6

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.9
Annan Athletic
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Morton
4.3
Aberdeen
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Stenhousemuir
4.1
Rangers
4.1
Dumbarton
4.1
Dundee
4.1
Montrose
4.0
Hibernian
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Dundee Utd
3.9
Falkirk
3.9
Motherwell
3.9
Stirling
3.8
East Fife
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.7
Ross County
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Celtic
3.6
Partick
3.5
Brechin
3.5
Elgin
3.5
Livingston
3.5
Stranraer
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.5
Forfar
3.4
Arbroath
3.4
Clyde
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Spartans
3.3
ST Mirren
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.3
Inverness CT
3.0

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
25.0
Aberdeen
24.2
Forfar
23.8
Livingston
23.7
Elgin
23.7
Heart Of Midlothian
22.8
Kilmarnock
22.5
Morton
22.4
ST Johnstone
22.4
Stenhousemuir
22.2
Motherwell
22.0
Ross County
22.0
Rangers
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
ST Mirren
21.6
Kelty Hearts
21.6
Falkirk
21.5
Hibernian
21.4
East Fife
21.3
Spartans
20.9
Annan Athletic
20.8
Arbroath
20.8
Montrose
20.8
Edinburgh City
20.6
Dumbarton
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Clyde
20.4
Stirling
20.3
Dundee
20.0
Stranraer
19.9
Partick
19.9
Celtic
19.7
Inverness CT
19.4
Dunfermline
19.3
Airdrie United
18.7
Cove Rangers
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.6%
Under 9.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.3%
Under 3.5
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
58.4%
Under 21.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Motherwell or Draw✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Motherwell + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell or Kilmarnock✗ Miss
70.7%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Motherwell + Kilmarnock
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kilmarnock✓ Hit
54.9%
Avg Implied -
45%
29%
26%
covers Draw + Kilmarnock
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.6%
Under
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Motherwell, so a minus line means Motherwell give that many goals of a start and Kilmarnock receive them. At -1, Motherwell must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Motherwell win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Motherwell)Actual: Kilmarnock
Motherwell -2
8.6%
Draw -2
13.9%
Kilmarnock +2
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Motherwell)Actual: Kilmarnock
Motherwell -1
22.5%
Draw -1
22.6%
Kilmarnock +1
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Motherwell)Actual: Motherwell
Motherwell +1
74.4%
Draw +1
15.8%
Kilmarnock -1
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Motherwell)Actual: Motherwell
Motherwell +2
90.1%
Draw +2
7.1%
Kilmarnock -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MotherwellMotherwell

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W21W02L02L10W10W10W00D00D12LH·LIV04/05A·ROS11/05A·HIB15/05H·ST 19/05H·EDI13/07A·MON16/07A·CLY20/07H·PAR28/07H·ROS03/08A·RAN10/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.770.800.670.730.87
vs Stronger (4)0.751.000.501.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.750.790.830.670.670.92
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W03L11D00D01L02L10W02L10WA·RAN05/05A·ST 11/05H·CEL15/05A·DUN18/05H·CER25/07A·CER01/08A·CEL04/08H·TRO08/08H·ST 11/08A·TRO15/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.700.400.670.530.73
vs Stronger (13)0.380.920.430.710.331.17
vs Similar (17)0.530.530.380.620.670.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MotherwellMotherwell

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W30W01L10W20W01L21W00D00D00DH·LIV04/05A·ROS11/05A·HIB15/05H·ST 19/05H·EDI13/07A·MON16/07A·CLY20/07H·PAR28/07H·ROS03/08A·RAN10/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.800.470.870.73
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.001.500.500.50
vs Similar (24)0.830.540.830.330.830.75
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kilmarnock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L00D02L00D11D00D02L12L01L00DA·RAN05/05A·ST 11/05H·CEL15/05A·DUN18/05H·CER25/07A·CER01/08A·CEL04/08H·TRO08/08H·ST 11/08A·TRO15/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.631.000.800.400.47
vs Stronger (13)0.541.080.571.140.501.00
vs Similar (17)0.820.291.380.500.330.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kilmarnock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.598.8%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals98.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.596.3%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals94.4%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals91.8%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap90.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.590.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals82.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards81.6%--------
Away +2 handicap77.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.577.3%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals75.8%-------✗ Miss
Home or Draw74.4%-------✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap74.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls74.1%--------
Under 11.5 corners73.7%--------
Away under 1.5 goals73.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls73.1%--------
Under 5.5 cards71.8%--------
Over 1.571.0%-------✗ Miss
Home or Away70.7%-------✗ Miss

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Callum Slattery33%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos25%
Luke Armstrong21%
Tom Sparrow19%
Tawanda Maswanhise17%
Moses Ebiye11%
Paul McGinn10%
Zach Robinson8%
Andy Halliday8%
Dan Casey6%
Liam Gordon4%
Tony Watt4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Ewan Wilson3%
Lennon Miller3%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Ellery Balcombe0%
Shane Blaney0%
Steve Seddon0%
Harrison Paton0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Jair Tavares0%
Jack Vale0%
Luke Plange0%
Marvin Kaleta0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Shane Blaney27%
Callum Slattery27%
Stephen O'Donnell24%
Andy Halliday21%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos19%
Tom Sparrow19%
Jack Vale17%
Lennon Miller16%
Kofi Balmer15%
Steve Seddon14%
Harrison Paton14%
Dominic Thompson13%
Tawanda Maswanhise13%
Dan Casey12%
Davor Zdravkovski12%
Liam Gordon11%
Sam Nicholson11%
Tony Watt11%
Paul McGinn10%
Ewan Wilson10%
Zach Robinson8%
Luke Armstrong7%
Marvin Kaleta5%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Ellery Balcombe0%
Moses Ebiye0%
Jair Tavares0%
Luke Plange0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lennon Miller22%
Harrison Paton14%
Dominic Thompson13%
Tawanda Maswanhise10%
Marvin Kaleta10%
Ellery Balcombe8%
Tony Watt7%
Callum Slattery7%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos6%
Dan Casey6%
Andy Halliday5%
Kofi Balmer5%
Moses Ebiye4%
Liam Gordon4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Tom Sparrow3%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Shane Blaney0%
Luke Armstrong0%
Steve Seddon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Jair Tavares0%
Jack Vale0%
Zach Robinson0%
Luke Plange0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Callum Slattery27%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos12%
Lennon Miller12%
Dan Casey12%
Tawanda Maswanhise10%
Moses Ebiye7%
Steve Seddon7%
Tony Watt7%
Tom Sparrow3%
Andy Halliday0%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Aston Oxborough0%
Ellery Balcombe0%
Shane Blaney0%
Luke Armstrong0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Gordon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Harrison Paton0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Dominic Thompson0%
Jair Tavares0%
Jack Vale0%
Zach Robinson0%
Luke Plange0%
Marvin Kaleta0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Will Dickson0%
Kai Andrews0%
Kilmarnock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruce Anderson33%
Marley Watkins15%
Matthew Kennedy14%
Fraser Murray12%
Bobby Wales10%
Danny Armstrong9%
David Watson8%
Kyle Vassell8%
Liam Polworth7%
Joe Wright7%
Innes Cameron5%
Liam Donnelly4%
Bradley Lyons3%
Robbie Deas3%
Corrie Ndaba3%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Jack Burroughs0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Gary Mackay-Steven0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Oliver Bainbridge0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oliver Bainbridge29%
Danny Armstrong26%
Kyle Magennis25%
Joe Wright23%
Liam Donnelly22%
Matthew Kennedy19%
Bradley Lyons15%
Robbie Deas15%
Corrie Ndaba14%
Fraser Murray12%
Liam Polworth11%
David Watson11%
Marley Watkins9%
Bobby Wales7%
Lewis Mayo5%
Kieran O'Hara5%
Kyle Vassell4%
Bruce Anderson3%
Jack Burroughs0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Gary Mackay-Steven0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Innes Cameron0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Danny Armstrong23%
Joe Wright10%
Gary Mackay-Steven9%
Liam Donnelly7%
Bobby Wales7%
Fraser Murray6%
Matthew Kennedy5%
Innes Cameron5%
Kyle Vassell4%
Bruce Anderson3%
Marley Watkins3%
Bradley Lyons3%
Corrie Ndaba3%
David Watson3%
Lewis Mayo3%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Jack Burroughs0%
Stuart Findlay0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Liam Polworth0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Robbie Deas0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Oliver Bainbridge0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bruce Anderson13%
Kyle Vassell12%
Bobby Wales10%
Matthew Kennedy10%
Fraser Murray9%
Bradley Lyons9%
Danny Armstrong6%
Stuart Findlay5%
Joe Wright3%
Marley Watkins3%
Corrie Ndaba3%
David Watson3%
Kieran O'Hara0%
Jack Burroughs0%
Rory McKenzie0%
Gary Mackay-Steven0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Kyle Magennis0%
Liam Polworth0%
Robby McCrorie0%
Innes Cameron0%
Lewis Mayo0%
Robbie Deas0%
Calvin Ramsay0%
Oliver Bainbridge0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Motherwell's squad is €9m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€16m vs €7m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €7m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€10m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Motherwell and Kilmarnock have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Motherwell's defence is €3m more valuable than Kilmarnock's (€5m vs €3m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
MOT wins
3
Draws
2
KIL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Motherwell vs Kilmarnock · H/A from MOT
DateH/AGameScore
03/02/24HMOT Vs Kilmarnock1-1
04/11/23AKilmarnock Vs MOT1-0
26/08/23HMOT Vs Kilmarnock2-1
06/05/23HMOT Vs Kilmarnock2-0
25/02/23AKilmarnock Vs MOT1-1
23/12/22HMOT Vs Kilmarnock2-2
27/08/22AKilmarnock Vs MOT2-1
01/05/21HMOT Vs Kilmarnock2-0

MotherwellMotherwell

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24ARangers Vs MOT2-1
03/08/24HMOT Vs Ross County0-0
28/07/24HMOT Vs Partick0-0
20/07/24AClyde Vs MOT1-3
16/07/24AMontrose Vs MOT1-1
13/07/24HMOT Vs Edinburgh City3-0
19/05/24HMOT Vs ST Johnstone1-2
15/05/24AHibernian Vs MOT3-0
11/05/24ARoss County Vs MOT1-5
04/05/24HMOT Vs Livingston4-1

KilmarnockKilmarnock

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/08/24ATromso Vs KIL0-1
11/08/24HKIL Vs ST Johnstone0-3
08/08/24HKIL Vs Tromso2-2
04/08/24ACeltic Vs KIL4-0
01/08/24ACercle Brugge Vs KIL1-0
25/07/24HKIL Vs Cercle Brugge1-1
18/05/24ADundee Vs KIL1-1
15/05/24HKIL Vs Celtic0-5
11/05/24AST Mirren Vs KIL0-1
05/05/24ARangers Vs KIL4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Motherwell
Motherwell
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDDL1.32
HomeWLWDD1.40
AwayWLDWL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.822.962.68
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.481.641.32
Conceded1.341.321.36
BTTS62%64%60%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners10.579.1512.00
Cards4.084.583.60
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
Scotland: League Cup
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW1.46
HomeDLDDL1.72
AwayWDLLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%28%
AVG goals2.382.602.16
Over 1.5 %66%68%64%
Over 2.5 %42%48%36%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.201.440.96
Conceded1.181.161.20
BTTS46%48%44%
Clean Sheet36%32%40%
Corners10.9510.5011.38
Cards4.394.104.67

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CelticCeltic3892
76%
2.4
11226+86
3.6
92%
74%
47%
11.8
71%
3.5
41%
18.7
29%
116
5620412.90.7
74%
2RangersRangers3875
58%
2.0
8041+39
3.2
82%
66%
42%
11.1
71%
4.0
65%
20.9
53%
136
3844542.11.1
63%
3HibernianHibernian3858
39%
1.5
6250+12
2.9
87%
61%
37%
11.5
71%
4.4
70%
20.6
45%
20
7851.61.3
45%
4Dundee UtdDundee Utd3853
39%
1.4
4554-9
2.6
66%
45%
29%
10.9
71%
4.2
50%
20.9
39%
11
4341.21.4
44%
5AberdeenAberdeen3853
39%
1.4
4861-13
2.9
74%
61%
34%
11.9
74%
4.9
78%
22.8
61%
15
4471.31.6
53%
6Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian3852
39%
1.4
5247+5
2.6
71%
55%
29%
10.8
58%
4.2
59%
21.2
50%
22
12461.41.2
54%
7ST MirrenST Mirren3850
37%
1.3
5359-6
2.9
82%
66%
34%
10.1
61%
4.6
61%
21.7
55%
8
1331.41.6
42%
8MotherwellMotherwell3849
37%
1.3
4663-17
2.9
82%
71%
26%
11.2
61%
4.5
65%
23.4
66%
16
10151.21.7
42%
9KilmarnockKilmarnock3844
32%
1.2
4564-19
2.9
74%
45%
34%
10.4
63%
4.0
54%
22.2
53%
7
3231.21.7
44%
10DundeeDundee3841
29%
1.1
5777-20
3.5
92%
68%
47%
10.4
63%
3.7
50%
20.3
34%
5
1221.52.0
44%
11Ross CountyRoss County4038
22%
0.9
4070-30
2.8
78%
55%
28%
11.8
74%
3.2
41%
20.9
50%
1
0011.01.8
40%
12ST JohnstoneST Johnstone3832
24%
0.8
3868-30
2.8
82%
61%
24%
10.6
53%
4.2
58%
22.8
61%
5
2121.01.8
53%
13LivingstonLivingston410
75%
2.5
93+6
3.0
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
0.0
0%
-
0%
4
1112.20.8
-
14Ayr UtdAyr Utd23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
9.0
100%
-
0%
2
1010.51.0
-
15PartickPartick43
25%
0.8
25-3
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
4.5
50%
-
0%
3
1110.51.2
-
Scotland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →

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