Motherwell are the clear favourites to win at home, with a 43% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a ST Johnstone win. The model predicts an average of 2.3 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% probability, though the final result is expected to be a home win. Motherwell have scored an average of 1.58 goals and conceded 1.0 at home against teams of similar strength, while ST Johnstone have scored 1.25 and conceded only 0.62 on the road against comparable opposition. The suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 88%, Under 3.5 at 79.8%, Over 21.5 fouls at 77.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 70.9% and Over 2.5 cards at 78.8%. The model’s selection for the match result is a Home win.
Results analysis
After a run of two straight defeats, Motherwell’s form has finally turned, and they secured a 2-0 win over St Johnstone, matching the model’s predicted outcome. The model had named a home win with a 43% probability, and that call proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not reached, but the 2-0 result still fell within the expected range. The model’s selections performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 88%, Under 3.5 hit at 79.8%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 77.4%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 75.5%, and Under 11.5 corners hit at 70.9%. Only Over 2.5 cards missed at 78.8%. Overall, the predictions largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motherwell win✓ Hit
42.9%
Avg Implied 40.3% · @ 2.34
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied 30.0% · @ 3.15
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone win✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.18
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.40
1.60
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
0.50
4.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.33
1.17
1.58
1.00
1.08
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.03
0.73
1.07
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.33
0.75
1.25
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.73
0.71
0.86
1.25
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
@ 2.41+1.3%
Under 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.56-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
11.8%
0-0
11.3%
2-0 ✓
8.7%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.9%
Motherwell goals ↓
ST Johnstone goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.5%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.7%
8.6%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
3
3.8%
3.8%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = ST Johnstone goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.45
Rangers
2.34
Heart Of Midlothian
1.61
Livingston
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.26
Motherwell
1.21
Hibernian
1.18
ST Mirren
1.16
Aberdeen
1.08
Ross County
1.08
ST Johnstone
0.92
Dundee
0.76
Motherwell is 0.29 points better than ST Johnstone in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
2.42
Rangers
2.11
Heart Of Midlothian
1.42
Ross County
1.24
Motherwell
1.11
Aberdeen
1.08
Livingston
1.08
Hibernian
1.00
Dundee Utd
0.97
Dundee
0.89
ST Mirren
0.87
ST Johnstone
0.63
Motherwell is 0.47 goals better than ST Johnstone in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 0.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celtic
0.58
Rangers
0.82
Hibernian
1.11
Dundee Utd
1.16
Heart Of Midlothian
1.16
Aberdeen
1.21
Livingston
1.21
ST Mirren
1.34
ST Johnstone
1.34
Motherwell
1.61
Ross County
1.61
Dundee
1.68
Motherwell is 0.26 goals worse than ST Johnstone in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 4.1 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.7 · Against 13.7 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Johnstone
For 4.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.4
11.1
3.8
3.9
3.7
25.9
26.1
25.7
vs Stronger (9)
12.3
11.8
13.0
2.6
2.4
2.8
22.1
21.6
22.8
vs Similar (38)
9.8
8.6
11.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
26.7
27.0
26.3
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
12.0
7.5
4.0
7.0
2.5
27.3
31.0
25.5
% over line
58%
52%
64%
56%
56%
56%
80%
80%
80%
% under line
42%
48%
36%
44%
44%
44%
20%
20%
20%
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.8
9.3
3.6
3.8
3.5
25.3
25.7
24.8
vs Stronger (21)
9.6
10.5
8.6
4.0
4.2
3.9
24.0
25.8
22.0
vs Similar (29)
9.6
9.3
9.9
3.3
3.5
3.1
26.2
25.7
26.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
54%
50%
56%
54%
58%
72%
77%
67%
% under line
48%
46%
50%
44%
46%
42%
28%
23%
33%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.0
Rangers
10.8
Dundee
10.6
Ross County
10.6
Heart Of Midlothian
10.5
ST Mirren
10.2
Motherwell
10.2
Dundee Utd
10.2
Hibernian
9.9
Aberdeen
9.7
ST Johnstone
9.6
Livingston
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Motherwell
3.8
Rangers
3.7
Dundee Utd
3.7
Heart Of Midlothian
3.7
ST Johnstone
3.6
Dundee
3.5
Livingston
3.5
Hibernian
3.5
Ross County
3.5
ST Mirren
3.4
Aberdeen
3.4
Celtic
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aberdeen
26.4
Motherwell
25.9
Heart Of Midlothian
25.8
Dundee
25.4
ST Johnstone
25.3
Hibernian
24.9
Livingston
24.9
Ross County
24.6
ST Mirren
24.6
Dundee Utd
24.5
Rangers
23.5
Celtic
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.9%
Under 9.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.3%
Under 3.5
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.4%
Under 21.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.62
0.75
0.33
0.17
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.37
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.33
0.38
0.12
0.14
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.40
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.33
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.00
2.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.54
0.83
0.67
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Johnstone) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Johnstone
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.87
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
1.00
0.38
1.12
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.33
0.29
0.57
0.75
0.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Johnstone over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lukas Fadinger25%
Regan Charles-Cook25%
Emmanuel Longelo25%
Ibrahim Said25%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lukas Fadinger75%
Martin Moormann33%
Tom Sparrow33%
Alex Lowry25%
Jamie Knight-Lebel25%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emmanuel Longelo25%
Ibrahim Said25%
Lukas Fadinger0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Martin Moormann0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tawanda Maswanhise0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lukas Fadinger25%
Tawanda Maswanhise25%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Alex Paulsen0%
Alex Lowry0%
Emmanuel Longelo0%
Martin Moormann0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Jake Girdwood-Reich0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Ewan Wilson0%
Jamie Knight-Lebel0%
Olly Whyte0%
Willy Vogt0%
ST Johnstone · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ruari Paton33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Kai Fotheringham33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Jamie Gullan0%
Reece McAlear0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Liam Smith33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Cheick Diabate33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sam Stanton33%
Jamie Gullan33%
Josh Fowler33%
Jason Holt0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Jamie Gullan33%
Jason Holt0%
Sam Stanton0%
Logan Chalmers0%
Liam Smith0%
Ruari Paton0%
Reece McAlear0%
Cheick Diabate0%
Kai Fotheringham0%
Toby Steward0%
Zach Mitchell0%
Josh Fowler0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
RC (11)
€1m
Motherwell's squad is €11m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€16m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
SJ (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
RC (1)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €7m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€10m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
RC (3)
€0m
Motherwell and ST Johnstone have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
SM (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
Motherwell's defence is €3m more valuable than ST Johnstone's (€5m vs €2m).
Scotland: Premiership 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Celtic
Rangers
Heart Of Midlothian
Livingston
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
Ross County
Dundee