Motherwell are the clear favourites to win at home, with the model giving a 55% chance of a victory, 25% for a draw and 20% for an away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, so a modest 2-goal game is the most likely total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Motherwell, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, have been scoring 1.73 goals per game and conceding 1.18, while ST Mirren on the road have managed 1.12 goals and given up 1.5. The suggested picks are: Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%), Under 5.5 (92.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.8% miss), Home +2 handicap (92.3% miss), Away under 2.5 goals (91.2% miss), Over 19.5 fouls (89.3%). The match is set to be a tight contest, but the data points to Motherwell’s advantage.
Results analysis
Motherwell’s home form has stalled, their last five results a string of losses and a draw, yet the model still tipped a home win at 55 percent. The game delivered a 1-4 away victory for ST Mirren, so the model’s favourite was wrong. The match produced only five goals, making the Under 7.5 pick a hit at 99.1 percent, while Under 6.5 and Under 5.5 also succeeded at 97.3 percent and 92.9 percent respectively. The Home +2 handicap was missed at 92.3 percent, as was Away under 3.5 goals at 97.8 percent, Away under 2.5 goals at 91.2 percent, and Home under 3.5 goals at 88.7 percent. The Under 7.5 selection was the only true success.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Motherwell win✗ Miss
54.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren win✓ Hit
20.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Motherwell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.33
1.71
1.21
1.12
1.44
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.30
1.30
1.73
1.18
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
3.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.33
1.94
1.31
1.14
1.36
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.40
1.20
1.50
1.00
1.20
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.23
2.20
0.80
1.12
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
1.50
8.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.6%
Under 2.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.0%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
Motherwell goals ↓
ST Mirren goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
4.9%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.3%
12%
5.6%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.9%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.8%
6.0%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.6%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Motherwell goals (down), columns = ST Mirren goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aberdeen
2.57
Celtic
2.50
Dundee
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ross County
2.40
Ayr Utd
2.25
Livingston
2.25
Dundee Utd
2.00
Spartans
2.00
Falkirk
2.00
Queen's Park
1.80
ST Johnstone
1.80
Airdrie United
1.80
Hibernian
1.80
Partick
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Montrose
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
East Fife
1.75
Motherwell
1.71
Morton
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Peterhead
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Arbroath
1.00
Kelty Hearts
1.00
Kilmarnock
1.00
Inverness CT
1.00
Cove Rangers
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Dunfermline
0.75
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Stirling
0.50
Elgin
0.25
East Kilbride
0.25
Dumbarton
0.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.25
Stranraer
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Edinburgh City
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Brechin
0.00
Motherwell is 1.71 points better than ST Mirren in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celtic
4.25
Dundee
4.00
Queen's Park
3.20
Airdrie United
3.20
Hibernian
3.00
Aberdeen
2.86
Partick
2.75
Falkirk
2.50
Rangers
2.50
Ayr Utd
2.25
Clyde
2.25
ST Johnstone
2.20
Dundee Utd
2.00
Ross County
2.00
East Fife
2.00
Annan Athletic
1.75
Raith Rovers
1.75
Alloa Athletic
1.75
Montrose
1.50
Motherwell
1.43
Spartans
1.33
Livingston
1.25
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Hamilton Academical
1.25
Peterhead
1.25
Queen of the South
1.25
Dunfermline
1.00
Dumbarton
1.00
Stranraer
1.00
Morton
0.75
Elgin
0.75
Inverness CT
0.75
Cove Rangers
0.75
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
0.75
Forfar
0.75
Kelty Hearts
0.50
Stirling
0.50
Brechin
0.50
East Kilbride
0.50
Arbroath
0.25
Edinburgh City
0.25
ST Mirren
0.00
Kilmarnock
0.00
Heart Of Midlothian
0.00
Motherwell is 1.43 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kilmarnock
0.00
Livingston
0.25
Motherwell
0.71
Hamilton Academical
0.75
Ross County
0.80
ST Mirren
1.00
Aberdeen
1.00
Raith Rovers
1.00
Dundee
1.00
Hibernian
1.00
Forfar
1.00
Rangers
1.00
Dundee Utd
1.17
Spartans
1.17
Falkirk
1.17
Queen's Park
1.20
Ayr Utd
1.25
Arbroath
1.25
Partick
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.25
Dunfermline
1.25
Montrose
1.25
Alloa Athletic
1.25
East Fife
1.25
ST Johnstone
1.40
Morton
1.50
Celtic
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Queen of the South
1.50
Inverness CT
1.75
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Stirling
2.00
Heart Of Midlothian
2.00
Airdrie United
2.20
Cove Rangers
2.25
Brechin
2.50
Stranraer
2.50
Stenhousemuir
2.75
Peterhead
2.75
Dumbarton
3.25
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
3.25
Elgin
3.50
Edinburgh City
4.00
East Kilbride
4.00
Motherwell is 0.29 goals better than ST Mirren in terms of goals conceded per game (0.71 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Motherwell
For 3.9 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 3.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 16.1 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
ST Mirren
For 6.0 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 8.2 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Motherwell
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.3
11.2
3.8
3.4
4.1
24.6
25.4
24.0
vs Stronger (8)
11.7
12.0
11.3
3.5
3.2
4.0
22.4
20.5
25.0
vs Similar (39)
10.0
8.6
11.2
4.1
3.7
4.5
25.1
26.6
23.8
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
40%
64%
56%
48%
63%
69%
80%
59%
% under line
48%
60%
36%
44%
52%
37%
31%
20%
41%
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.7
4.0
4.4
3.6
21.1
21.0
21.3
vs Stronger (22)
10.8
10.1
11.6
4.5
5.2
3.6
21.4
21.4
21.3
vs Similar (25)
10.2
10.6
9.8
4.1
3.9
4.2
21.0
20.5
21.4
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
67%
67%
50%
56%
44%
48%
48%
48%
% under line
33%
33%
33%
50%
44%
56%
52%
52%
52%
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Celtic
11.6
Hibernian
11.5
Ross County
11.4
Falkirk
11.3
Rangers
11.2
Dumbarton
11.1
Morton
11.1
East Kilbride
11.0
Aberdeen
11.0
Dundee Utd
10.8
Motherwell
10.7
Kilmarnock
10.6
ST Mirren
10.5
Airdrie United
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.4
Stirling
10.4
ST Johnstone
10.4
Dundee
10.3
Partick
10.3
Dunfermline
10.1
Arbroath
10.1
Brechin
10.0
Elgin
9.9
Annan Athletic
9.9
Kelty Hearts
9.9
East Fife
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Stranraer
9.6
Livingston
9.4
Cove Rangers
9.3
Forfar
9.3
Spartans
9.1
Stenhousemuir
9.1
Edinburgh City
9.0
Inverness CT
9.0
Montrose
8.9
Peterhead
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.8
Edinburgh City
5.3
Peterhead
5.3
Aberdeen
5.1
Elgin
5.0
Hamilton Academical
5.0
Morton
5.0
Forfar
4.9
Ayr Utd
4.8
ST Mirren
4.6
Hibernian
4.6
Motherwell
4.5
Stirling
4.5
East Fife
4.3
Dundee Utd
4.3
Partick
4.3
Clyde
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.2
Heart Of Midlothian
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Livingston
4.0
ST Johnstone
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Rangers
3.9
Dumbarton
3.8
Montrose
3.8
Annan Athletic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
Dunfermline
3.7
Brechin
3.5
Inverness CT
3.5
Airdrie United
3.4
Ross County
3.4
Kelty Hearts
3.4
Celtic
3.3
Arbroath
3.2
Cove Rangers
3.1
Raith Rovers
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.5
Peterhead
25.2
Forfar
24.9
Motherwell
24.4
Livingston
24.3
Edinburgh City
24.3
Elgin
24.2
East Fife
23.9
Aberdeen
23.6
Kilmarnock
23.1
Clyde
22.8
Falkirk
22.7
Stenhousemuir
22.5
Heart Of Midlothian
22.4
Morton
22.4
ST Johnstone
22.2
Rangers
22.1
Stirling
21.9
Inverness CT
21.6
Spartans
21.5
Dundee Utd
21.4
ST Mirren
21.3
Montrose
21.2
Hibernian
21.0
Stranraer
21.0
Ross County
20.7
Dunfermline
20.7
Partick
20.6
Annan Athletic
20.5
Dundee
20.4
Brechin
20.4
Cove Rangers
20.4
Airdrie United
20.3
Arbroath
20.0
Kelty Hearts
19.9
Celtic
19.7
Dumbarton
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.6%
Under 9.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.8%
Under 3.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.3%
Under 21.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Motherwell or Draw✗ Miss
79.7%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
20%
covers Motherwell + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Motherwell or ST Mirren✓ Hit
75.0%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
20%
covers Motherwell + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or ST Mirren✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied -
55%
25%
20%
covers Draw + ST Mirren
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Motherwell over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.9%
Under
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
54.4%
Under
45.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Motherwell, so a minus line means Motherwell give that many goals of a start and ST Mirren receive them. At -1, Motherwell must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Motherwell win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Motherwell)Actual: ST Mirren
Motherwell -2
14.7%
Draw -2
17.1%
ST Mirren +2
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Motherwell)Actual: ST Mirren
Motherwell -1
31.8%
Draw -1
22.9%
ST Mirren +1
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Motherwell)Actual: ST Mirren
Motherwell +1
79.7%
Draw +1
12.6%
ST Mirren -1
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Motherwell)Actual: ST Mirren
Motherwell +2
92.3%
Draw +2
5.6%
ST Mirren -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Motherwell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.64
0.64
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.73
0.55
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.43
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.40
0.70
0.60
0.20
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.54
1.20
0.20
0.62
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Motherwell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
1.07
0.57
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.70
1.00
0.64
0.67
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
3.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (ST Mirren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ST Mirren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.87
0.94
0.81
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.90
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.69
1.00
0.60
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Motherwell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Motherwell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Motherwell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ST Mirren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Motherwell
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawanda Maswanhise40%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos26%
Elijah Just20%
Emmanuel Longelo19%
Elliot Watt18%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Callum Slattery10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Ibrahim Said8%
Liam Gordon6%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Stephen Welsh4%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Callum Slattery26%
Elliot Watt21%
Callum Hendry19%
Liam Gordon18%
Emmanuel Longelo17%
Ibrahim Said16%
Paul McGinn12%
Elijah Just11%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Sam Nicholson10%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Stephen Welsh7%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos5%
Johnny Koutroumbis4%
Oscar Priestman4%
Stephen O'Donnell3%
Tawanda Maswanhise3%
Calum Ward3%
Jordan McGhee0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Eythor Bjørgolfsson22%
Callum Slattery19%
Elijah Just17%
Emmanuel Longelo11%
Tom Sparrow11%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos11%
Elliot Watt9%
Regan Charles-Cook8%
Lukas Fadinger6%
Stephen O'Donnell6%
Tawanda Maswanhise6%
Stephen Welsh4%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Liam Gordon0%
Callum Hendry0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elijah Just26%
Tawanda Maswanhise26%
Callum Slattery23%
Apostolos Stamatelopoulos16%
Callum Hendry14%
Lukas Fadinger9%
Emmanuel Longelo6%
Johnny Koutroumbis0%
Elliot Watt0%
Regan Charles-Cook0%
Stephen O'Donnell0%
Liam Gordon0%
Paul McGinn0%
Jordan McGhee0%
Sam Nicholson0%
Stephen Welsh0%
Kofi Balmer0%
Calum Ward0%
Ibrahim Said0%
Tom Sparrow0%
Oscar Priestman0%
Eythor Bjørgolfsson0%
Detlef Esapa Osong0%
Luca Ross0%
ST Mirren
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jake Young15%
Jonah Ayunga13%
Mikael Mandron11%
Dan N'Lundulu11%
Miguel Freckleton11%
Killian Phillips8%
Keanu Baccus6%
Richard King6%
Alexander Gogić6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Scott Tanser5%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Marcus Fraser3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Allan Campbell0%
Shamal George0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Keanu Baccus38%
Alexander Gogić36%
Killian Phillips24%
Fraser Taylor22%
Richard King22%
Marcus Fraser19%
Roland Idowu19%
Miguel Freckleton19%
Liam Donnelly18%
Jacob Devaney15%
Mikael Mandron11%
Shamal George9%
Allan Campbell8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Mark O'Hara4%
Jonah Ayunga4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Declan John3%
Jayden Richardson3%
Kion Etete0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Tanser18%
Declan John17%
Mikael Mandron14%
Jacob Devaney8%
Mark O'Hara4%
Conor McMenamin4%
Richard King3%
Alexander Gogić3%
Shamal George3%
Miguel Freckleton3%
Keanu Baccus0%
Kion Etete0%
Jonah Ayunga0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Liam Donnelly0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Dan N'Lundulu0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Killian Phillips0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Roland Idowu0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Evan Mooney0%
Luke Douglas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Douglas33%
Jonah Ayunga9%
Killian Phillips8%
Roland Idowu8%
Dan N'Lundulu7%
Keanu Baccus6%
Liam Donnelly6%
Alexander Gogić3%
Mark O'Hara0%
Mikael Mandron0%
Kion Etete0%
Declan John0%
Ross Sinclair0%
Scott Tanser0%
Allan Campbell0%
Marcus Fraser0%
Shamal George0%
Conor McMenamin0%
Jayden Richardson0%
Tunmise Sobowale0%
Jake Young0%
Malik Dijksteel0%
Richard King0%
Fraser Taylor0%
Jalmaro Calvin0%
Miguel Freckleton0%
Jacob Devaney0%
Evan Mooney0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
LIV (25)
€4m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
RC (11)
€1m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
KH (4)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Motherwell's squad is €8m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€16m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
LIV (7)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
KH (3)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Motherwell's attack is €8m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€10m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
LIV (8)
€1m
PAR (6)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Motherwell's midfield is €2m less valuable than ST Mirren's (€1m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
LIV (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Motherwell's defence is €2m more valuable than ST Mirren's (€5m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celtic
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Hibernian
Falkirk
Dundee Utd
Dundee
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Livingston
Partick
Dunfermline
Arbroath