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Moyola Park vs Glenavon FC Prediction & Stats

Date: 03/10/2026
Time: 17:00
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Vs
23%
26%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Moyola Park’s visitors, Glenavon FC, are tipped to win, the model’s pick and the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.9 goals suggests a moderately high-scoring affair, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 12.2%. Moyola Park, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Glenavon, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.0 scored and 3.5 conceded. The home win probability sits at 23%, a draw at 26%, and the away win at 51%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.3%, Under 6.5 at 97.2%, Under 5.5 at 92.7%, Away +2 handicap at 90.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 89.7%, Home under 2.5 goals at 89.6%, and Under 4.5 at 83.5%. Both teams are coming off recent wins, with Moyola Park’s last match a 1-0 victory over Armagh City and Glenavon a 3-1 win over Rathfriland.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Moyola Park win
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D13L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.331.001.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.331.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D00D01L23L13L41W41W22D31WH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.771.621.561.502.00
vs Stronger (11)1.182.551.292.001.003.50
vs Similar (17)1.711.291.751.251.671.33
vs Weaker (2)2.501.503.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
8.7%
0-0
6.7%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
Moyola Park goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
01234
06.7%8.8%8.7%5.1%2.2%
15.2%12%9.7%5.7%2.5%
23.5%6.2%5.5%3.2%1.4%
31.3%2.3%2.0%1.2%0.5%
40.4%0.6%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moyola Park goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Moyola Park is 0.60 points worse than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Moyola Park is 1.60 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Moyola Park is 0.20 goals better than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Moyola Park or Draw
48.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
51%
covers Moyola Park + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park or Glenavon FC
74.3%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
51%
covers Moyola Park + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Glenavon FC
77.0%
Avg Implied -
23%
26%
51%
covers Draw + Glenavon FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5
Over
67.4%
Under
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Moyola Park, so a minus line means Moyola Park give that many goals of a start and Glenavon FC receive them. At -1, Moyola Park must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Moyola Park win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park -2
2.8%
Draw -2
6.5%
Glenavon FC +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park -1
9.3%
Draw -1
13.8%
Glenavon FC +1
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park +1
48.7%
Draw +1
22.3%
Glenavon FC -1
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park +2
71.0%
Draw +2
16.0%
Glenavon FC -2
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D00D00DA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.200.600.330.670.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.330.67--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D00D10W01L11D21W11D20WH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.750.560.501.00
vs Stronger (11)0.550.820.430.570.751.25
vs Similar (17)0.590.760.880.620.330.89
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.000.331.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.33--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D01L13L12L30W20W11D11DH·POR04/04A·BAL07/04A·BAN11/04H·CRU18/04H·CAR25/04H·ARD08/08A·NEW11/08H·STR15/08A·ARM22/08H·RAT28/08← PremiershipChampionship →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.000.881.001.001.00
vs Stronger (11)0.641.730.861.430.252.25
vs Similar (17)1.120.530.880.621.330.44
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.0%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.3%-------
Under 6.597.2%-------
Under 5.592.7%-------
Away +2 handicap90.7%-------
Away under 3.5 goals89.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.6%-------
Under 4.583.5%-------
Away over 0.5 goals82.8%-------
Over 1.579.4%-------
Draw or Away77.0%-------
Away +1 handicap77.0%-------
Home or Away74.3%-------
Away under 2.5 goals74.1%-------
Home +2 handicap71.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MP wins
0
Draws
0
GF wins

Head-to-head

Moyola Park vs Glenavon FC · H/A from MP
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HMP Vs Armagh City1-0
22/08/26AAnnagh United Vs MP2-0
15/08/26HMP Vs Ballinamallard United2-0
11/08/26HMP Vs Strabane Athletic1-3
08/08/26ADundela Vs MP2-2

Glenavon FCGlenavon FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HGF Vs Rathfriland3-1
22/08/26AArmagh City Vs GF2-2
15/08/26HGF Vs Strabane Athletic4-1
11/08/26ANewry City AFC Vs GF1-4
08/08/26HGF Vs Ards1-3
25/04/26HGF Vs Carrick Rangers2-3
18/04/26HGF Vs Crusaders FC0-1
11/04/26ABangor Vs GF0-0
07/04/26ABallymena United Vs GF1-1
04/04/26HGF Vs Portadown1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.40
HomeLWW2.00
AwayDL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%67%0%
AVG goals2.602.333.00
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %40%33%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.201.331.00
Conceded1.401.002.00
BTTS40%33%50%
Clean Sheet40%67%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Glenavon FC
Glenavon FC
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW0.90
HomeLLLWW1.12
AwayWDDWD0.68
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%36%16%
AVG goals2.842.722.96
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %56%60%52%
Over 3.5 %32%24%40%
Scored1.161.201.12
Conceded1.681.521.84
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet12%12%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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