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Moyola Park vs H&W Welders Prediction & Stats

Date: 05/09/2026
Time: 14:00
Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Vs
34%
27%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The encounter between Moyola Park and H&W Welders is a tight one, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 35% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 39% for an away triumph. The average number of goals expected is three, yet the most probable total is two, with a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability.

Moyola Park, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. H&W Welders, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 2.5 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Both teams have shown recent form, Moyola coming off a win and H&W on a three-game winning streak.

Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.3%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Moyola Park win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders win
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D13L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.401.331.001.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Weaker (3)1.331.001.331.00--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L00D02L42W40W30W12L10W21W20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.331.202.561.192.071.21
vs Stronger (17)2.291.352.111.112.501.62
vs Similar (7)1.141.711.502.250.671.00
vs Weaker (6)3.830.175.330.002.330.33
Clean sheet %37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
6.9%
0-0
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
6.2%
Moyola Park goals ↓
H&W Welders goals →
01234
06.4%6.9%6.2%3.2%1.2%
16.3%12%8.7%4.5%1.7%
25.2%8.0%6.2%3.2%1.2%
32.5%3.8%2.9%1.5%0.6%
40.9%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moyola Park goals (down), columns = H&W Welders goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Moyola Park is 1.00 points worse than H&W Welders in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Moyola Park is 0.60 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Moyola Park is 0.80 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.60).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Moyola Park or Draw
60.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Moyola Park + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park or H&W Welders
73.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Moyola Park + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or H&W Welders
66.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Draw + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Moyola Park, so a minus line means Moyola Park give that many goals of a start and H&W Welders receive them. At -1, Moyola Park must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Moyola Park win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park -2
5.9%
Draw -2
10.2%
H&W Welders +2
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park -1
16.1%
Draw -1
17.8%
H&W Welders +1
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park +1
60.7%
Draw +1
19.4%
H&W Welders -1
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park +2
80.1%
Draw +2
12.0%
H&W Welders -2
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L12L00D00D00DA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.200.600.330.670.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.000.50--0.000.50
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.330.67--
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D01L11D30W10W12L00D10W00DH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.701.310.621.070.79
vs Stronger (17)1.350.761.220.441.501.12
vs Similar (7)0.711.001.001.500.330.33
vs Weaker (6)1.330.172.000.000.670.33
Clean sheet %50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.8%
Under 1.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L20W02L10WA·DUN08/08H·STR11/08H·BAL15/08A·ANN22/08H·ARM28/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.801.000.331.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Weaker (3)1.000.331.000.33--
Clean sheet %40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D01L31W10W20W00D10W11D20WH·QUE28/03A·LIM03/04A·LOU11/04A·NEW18/04H·ANN24/04H·WAR08/08A·QUE11/08H·ARM15/08A·STR22/08H·DUN28/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.501.250.561.000.43
vs Stronger (17)0.940.590.890.671.000.50
vs Similar (7)0.430.710.500.750.330.67
vs Weaker (6)2.500.003.330.001.670.00
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.6%
Under 1.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.9%-------
Home under 2.5 HT goals98.5%-------
Home under 2.5 2H goals97.0%-------
Under 6.596.9%-------
Away under 2.5 HT goals95.5%-------
Away under 2.5 2H goals94.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals93.0%-------
Under 5.592.1%-------
Home under 1.5 HT goals90.9%-------
Under 2.5 HT goals88.0%-------
Home under 1.5 2H goals85.6%-------
Away +2 handicap83.9%-------
Away under 1.5 HT goals83.5%-------
Home under 2.5 goals83.0%-------
Under 4.582.3%-------
Under 2.5 2H goals81.8%-------
Over 1.580.5%-------
Home +2 handicap80.1%-------
Away under 1.5 2H goals80.0%-------
Away under 2.5 goals80.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals78.5%-------
Over 0.5 2H goals78.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.7%-------
Home or Away73.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (13)
€1m
AC (2)
€0m
HW (4)
€0m
LOU (3)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (3)
€0m
AC (2)
€0m
WT (1)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
HW (1)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
HW (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GF (9)
€1m
HW (3)
€0m
LOU (2)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
AC (0)
€0m
WT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MP wins
0
Draws
0
HW wins

Head-to-head

Moyola Park vs H&W Welders · H/A from MP
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Moyola ParkMoyola Park

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HMP Vs Armagh City1-0
22/08/26AAnnagh United Vs MP2-0
15/08/26HMP Vs Ballinamallard United2-0
11/08/26HMP Vs Strabane Athletic1-3
08/08/26ADundela Vs MP2-2

H&W WeldersH&W Welders

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HHW Vs Dundela2-0
22/08/26AStrabane Athletic Vs HW1-2
15/08/26HHW Vs Armagh City1-0
11/08/26AQueen's University Vs HW2-1
08/08/26HHW Vs Warrenpoint Town3-0
24/04/26HHW Vs Annagh United4-0
18/04/26ANewington Youth Vs HW2-4
11/04/26ALoughgall Vs HW2-0
03/04/26ALimavady United Vs HW0-0
28/03/26HHW Vs Queen's University2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Moyola Park
Moyola Park
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.40
HomeLWW2.00
AwayDL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%67%0%
AVG goals2.602.333.00
Over 1.5 %80%67%100%
Over 2.5 %40%33%50%
Over 3.5 %40%33%50%
Scored1.201.331.00
Conceded1.401.002.00
BTTS40%33%50%
Clean Sheet40%67%0%
Corners---
Cards---
H&W Welders
H&W Welders
Northern-Ireland: Championship
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.74
HomeLWWWW1.84
AwayDLWLW1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%56%48%
AVG goals3.523.523.52
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %74%72%76%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored2.222.322.12
Conceded1.301.201.40
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Newington YouthNewington Youth513
80%
2.6
145+9
3.8
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.0
-
2H&W WeldersH&W Welders512
80%
2.4
93+6
2.4
80%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.6
-
3Glenavon FCGlenavon FC510
60%
2.0
148+6
4.4
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.81.6
-
4QueenQueen's University510
60%
2.0
115+6
3.2
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
5Annagh UnitedAnnagh United510
60%
2.0
129+3
4.2
100%
80%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.8
-
6LoughgallLoughgall59
40%
1.8
107+3
3.4
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7Newry City AFCNewry City AFC59
60%
1.8
79-2
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.8
-
8ArdsArds57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
100%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Warrenpoint TownWarrenpoint Town57
40%
1.4
99+0
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
10Moyola ParkMoyola Park57
40%
1.4
67-1
2.6
80%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11Ballinamallard UnitedBallinamallard United56
40%
1.2
58-3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
12InstituteInstitute54
20%
0.8
49-5
2.6
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
13DundelaDundela53
0%
0.6
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
14Strabane AthleticStrabane Athletic53
20%
0.6
610-4
3.2
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
15Armagh CityArmagh City52
0%
0.4
37-4
2.0
60%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.4
-
16RathfrilandRathfriland50
0%
0.0
516-11
4.2
100%
100%
80%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.2
-
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →

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