The encounter between Moyola Park and H&W Welders is a tight one, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. The probabilities are 35% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 39% for an away triumph. The average number of goals expected is three, yet the most probable total is two, with a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability.
Moyola Park, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. H&W Welders, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 2.5 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. Both teams have shown recent form, Moyola coming off a win and H&W on a three-game winning streak.
Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Under 6.5 (96.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.1%) and Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Moyola Park win
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders win
39.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Moyola Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.00
1.33
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H&W Welders
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
1.20
2.56
1.19
2.07
1.21
vs Stronger (17)
2.29
1.35
2.11
1.11
2.50
1.62
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.71
1.50
2.25
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
3.83
0.17
5.33
0.00
2.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
6.9%
0-0
6.4%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
6.2%
Moyola Park goals ↓
H&W Welders goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
6.9%
6.2%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.3%
12%
8.7%
4.5%
1.7%
2
5.2%
8.0%
6.2%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.5%
3.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Moyola Park goals (down), columns = H&W Welders goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Moyola Park is 1.00 points worse than H&W Welders in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Moyola Park is 0.60 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Moyola Park is 0.80 goals worse than H&W Welders in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Moyola Park or Draw
60.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Moyola Park + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park or H&W Welders
73.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Moyola Park + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or H&W Welders
66.1%
Avg Implied -
34%
27%
39%
covers Draw + H&W Welders
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Moyola Park, so a minus line means Moyola Park give that many goals of a start and H&W Welders receive them. At -1, Moyola Park must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Moyola Park win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park -2
5.9%
Draw -2
10.2%
H&W Welders +2
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park -1
16.1%
Draw -1
17.8%
H&W Welders +1
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park +1
60.7%
Draw +1
19.4%
H&W Welders -1
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Moyola Park)
Moyola Park +2
80.1%
Draw +2
12.0%
H&W Welders -2
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Moyola Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H&W Welders
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.70
1.31
0.62
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (17)
1.35
0.76
1.22
0.44
1.50
1.12
vs Similar (7)
0.71
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.17
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.2%
Under 0.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.8%
Under 1.5
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.3%
Under
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Moyola Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.50
-
-
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.33
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (H&W Welders) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H&W Welders
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.25
0.56
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (17)
0.94
0.59
0.89
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
2.50
0.00
3.33
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Moyola Park) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.0%
Under 0.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.6%
Under 1.5
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.2%
Under 2.5
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Moyola Park over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.8%
Under
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Moyola Park over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.8%
Under
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
H&W Welders over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →