This highly anticipated match between MP and EIF in the Finland: Ykkönen league is finely balanced, with both teams carrying recent form that could sway the outcome. MP comes off a defeat, having lost to JäPS 0-1, while EIF is on a 2-game winning run after victories over KäPa.
The model predicts a home win, but the probabilities are evenly split, with MP having a 37% chance of winning, EIF a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw. The expected total goals stand at 3.0, with the most likely total goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 12.4%. MP has a tendency to score 0.92 goals at home against stronger opponents, while conceding 2.15 goals. EIF, on the other hand, scores 2.0 goals away against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.5 goals. The model suggests an Over 1.5 total goals outcome, which has an 80.9% probability, with an edge of 4%.
Results analysis
The away win by EIF extends their 3-game winning run, and also marks a second consecutive victory over MP, following their 2-0 win last time around. In a stunning upset, EIF defeated the pre-match favourite, MP, with a 0-2 scoreline, leaving the home side's 2-game winning streak in tatters. The model's selection, MP home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 37%. The model's call was wrong, as EIF emerged victorious. Meanwhile, the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.8% probability, matching the actual total of 2 goals.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MP win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied 35.4% · @ 2.56
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.75
Unibet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.65
SBO
2.59
Betano
2.57
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.44
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.70
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Dafabet
3.50
EIF win✓ Hit
36.6%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.37
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
BetVictor
2.45
Betano
2.45
Dafabet
2.39
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.87
1.18
2.36
1.47
1.58
vs Stronger (27)
1.30
1.70
1.00
2.11
1.44
1.50
vs Similar (3)
2.00
3.33
2.00
3.50
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (EIF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
EIF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.47
1.67
1.47
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (19)
1.21
1.89
1.50
1.90
0.89
1.89
vs Similar (11)
1.73
0.73
2.00
0.60
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
@ 1.18+2.0%
Under 1.5
19.2%
@ 4.38-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
Under
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.70
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.61-0.7%
Under 2.5
42.9%
@ 2.20+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Under
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.34
BetVictor
2.30
Pinnacle
2.24
Betfair
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.7%
@ 2.50-2.2%
Under 3.5
65.3%
@ 1.46+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
BetVictor
2.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
BetVictor
1.47
Betfair
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.0%
@ 1.50-0.1%
No
39.0%
@ 2.36+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
William Hil
1.50
No
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.51
BetVictor
2.45
Unibet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.32+5.6%
2-1
8.4%@ 8.73+3.4%
1-2
8.4%@ 8.43+3.2%
1-0
6.5%@ 9.87+2.1%
0-1
6.5%@ 9.50+1.9%
2-2
6.2%@ 10.42+2.1%
0-0
6.2%@ 13.44+3.0%
2-0
5.7%@ 13.33+2.4%
MP goals ↓
EIF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.5%
5.6%
2.8%
1.0%
1
6.5%
12%
8.4%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.7%
8.4%
6.2%
3.1%
1.1%
3
2.8%
4.2%
3.1%
1.5%
0.6%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MP goals (down), columns = EIF goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
MP is 0.62 points worse than EIF in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
MP is 0.50 goals better than EIF in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
MP is 1.38 goals worse than EIF in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 0.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MP or Draw✗ Miss
63.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
37%
covers MP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MP or EIF✓ Hit
73.3%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
37%
covers MP + EIF
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or EIF✓ Hit
63.2%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
37%
covers Draw + EIF
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.82
1.00
0.53
0.63
vs Stronger (27)
0.52
0.70
0.67
0.78
0.44
0.67
vs Similar (3)
1.67
1.33
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (EIF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
EIF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.43
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
0.63
0.50
0.80
0.78
0.44
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.09
1.20
0.20
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.36
1.36
0.95
0.95
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
1.00
0.33
1.33
1.00
0.83
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (EIF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
EIF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.93
0.87
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
1.26
1.00
1.10
0.11
1.44
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.64
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
EIF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.8%
1.18
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.19
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
MP and EIF have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
MP and EIF have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
MP and EIF have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
MP and EIF have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haka
PK-35
JIPPO
Kooteepee
Klubi-04
JäPS
SJK Akatemia
KäPa