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MP vs JäPS Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 13:00
MP
MP
Vs
33%
27%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
JäPS
JäPS
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The match between MP and JäPS is a tight affair, with the model pointing to an away win as the most likely outcome. Home side MP have struggled recently, losing four straight games and conceding 2.11 goals on average against stronger opponents, while JäPS have been more resilient, drawing their last match and keeping a clean sheet. The expected total goals sit at 3.0, yet the most probable total is 2, with a 24% chance of that figure. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.4% probability.

MP’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.11 conceded at home, whereas JäPS’ away form indicates a similar defensive output against stronger teams. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Under 5.5 (91.8%), Away +2 handicap (84.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (82.9%), and Under 4.5 (81.8%). The probabilities for the match result are 33% for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 40% for an away win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MP win
33.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
JäPS win
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MPMP

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-553W13L11D13L33D21W01L02L34L03LA·JPS28/04A·LAH13/05A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07H·KÄP29/07A·JÄP07/08H·EIF16/08A·KLU22/08H·PK-29/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.472.031.082.331.721.83
vs Stronger (26)1.461.881.002.111.711.76
vs Similar (4)1.503.001.333.002.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (JäPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JäPSJäPS

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-991W31W01L10W20W01L10W12L03L00DA·TÖÖ28/04A·HIF13/05H·KUP26/05A·EIF18/07H·KLU25/07A·JIP30/07H·MP07/08H·HAK14/08A·PK-21/08H·KÄP28/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.601.271.331.071.871.47
vs Stronger (8)2.121.750.671.333.002.00
vs Similar (21)1.431.141.551.091.301.20
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.0%
0-1
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
1-0
6.1%
MP goals ↓
JäPS goals →
01234
06.2%6.8%6.2%3.2%1.3%
16.1%12%8.8%4.6%1.8%
25.1%8.0%6.2%3.3%1.3%
32.4%3.8%2.9%1.5%0.6%
40.9%1.3%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MP goals (down), columns = JäPS goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
MP is 0.80 points worse than JäPS in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 1.43).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
MP is 0.54 goals better than JäPS in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
MP is 1.39 goals worse than JäPS in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 0.86).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MP or Draw
60.0%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers MP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MP or JäPS
73.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers MP + JäPS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or JäPS
66.6%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers Draw + JäPS
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MP over/under 0.5
Over
75.8%
Under
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 3.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 1.5
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 2.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to MP, so a minus line means MP give that many goals of a start and JäPS receive them. At -1, MP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MP)
MP -2
5.8%
Draw -2
10.1%
JäPS +2
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MP)
MP -1
15.9%
Draw -1
17.6%
JäPS +1
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MP)
MP +1
60.0%
Draw +1
19.5%
JäPS -1
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MP)
MP +2
79.5%
Draw +2
12.3%
JäPS -2
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MPMP

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D00D00D21W21W01L02L34L03LA·JPS28/04A·LAH13/05A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07H·KÄP29/07A·JÄP07/08H·EIF16/08A·KLU22/08H·PK-29/08
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.731.070.751.330.720.89
vs Stronger (26)0.651.000.671.110.650.94
vs Similar (4)1.251.501.002.002.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (JäPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JäPSJäPS

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W11D00D00D10W00D10W01L02L00DA·TÖÖ28/04A·HIF13/05H·KUP26/05A·EIF18/07H·KLU25/07A·JIP30/07H·MP07/08H·HAK14/08A·PK-21/08H·KÄP28/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.530.730.600.67
vs Stronger (8)0.750.750.000.671.200.80
vs Similar (21)0.480.710.640.820.300.60
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %50% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MP over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MPMP

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W02L11D13L12L00D00D00D00D00DA·JPS28/04A·LAH13/05A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07H·KÄP29/07A·JÄP07/08H·EIF16/08A·KLU22/08H·PK-29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.331.001.000.94
vs Stronger (26)0.810.880.331.001.060.82
vs Similar (4)0.251.500.331.000.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (JäPS) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

JäPSJäPS

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W20W01L10W10W01L00D11D01L00DA·TÖÖ28/04A·HIF13/05H·KUP26/05A·EIF18/07H·KLU25/07A·JIP30/07H·MP07/08H·HAK14/08A·PK-21/08H·KÄP28/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.570.800.331.270.80
vs Stronger (8)1.381.000.670.671.801.20
vs Similar (21)0.950.430.910.271.000.60
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MP over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
JäPS over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.8%-------
Under 6.596.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals94.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.6%-------
Under 5.591.8%-------
Away +2 handicap84.1%-------
Home under 2.5 goals82.9%-------
Under 4.581.8%-------
Over 1.581.0%-------
Home +2 handicap79.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals79.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals79.1%-------
Home over 0.5 goals75.8%-------
Home or Away73.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (21)
€1m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
EIF (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
KLU (17)
€0m
MP and JäPS have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
EIF (9)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
HAK (7)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KLU (8)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
MP and JäPS have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PK- (7)
€0m
HAK (5)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
EIF (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
KLU (3)
€0m
MP and JäPS have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAK (9)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
EIF (7)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
KLU (6)
€0m
MP and JäPS have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
0
MP wins
1
Draws
3
JÄP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

MP vs JäPS · H/A from MP
DateH/AGameScore
07/08/26AJäPS Vs MP1-0
30/08/24AJäPS Vs MP4-0
17/07/24AJäPS Vs MP1-1
19/05/24HMP Vs JäPS0-3

MPMP

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMP Vs PK-350-3
22/08/26AKlubi-04 Vs MP4-3
16/08/26HMP Vs EIF0-2
07/08/26AJäPS Vs MP1-0
29/07/26HMP Vs KäPa2-1
25/07/26HMP Vs Kooteepee3-3
15/07/26AJIPPO Vs MP3-1
11/07/26ASJK Akatemia Vs MP1-1
13/05/26ALahti Vs MP3-1
28/04/26AJPS Vs MP3-5

JäPSJäPS

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HJÄP Vs KäPa0-0
21/08/26APK-35 Vs JÄP3-0
14/08/26HJÄP Vs Haka1-2
07/08/26HJÄP Vs MP1-0
30/07/26AJIPPO Vs JÄP1-0
25/07/26HJÄP Vs Klubi-042-0
18/07/26AEIF Vs JÄP0-1
26/05/26HJÄP Vs KuPS0-1
13/05/26AHIFK Helsinki Vs JÄP1-3
28/04/26ATöölön Taisto Vs JÄP1-9

📊 16. Overall Statistics

MP
MP
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.89
HomeLDWLL0.56
AwayLDLLL1.11
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%11%30%
AVG goals3.273.173.33
Over 1.5 %76%78%74%
Over 2.5 %64%67%63%
Over 3.5 %40%28%48%
Scored1.290.891.56
Conceded1.982.281.78
BTTS47%50%44%
Clean Sheet18%11%22%
Corners---
Cards---
JäPS
JäPS
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.46
HomeLWWLD1.45
AwayWWWLL1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%36%43%
AVG goals3.402.823.86
Over 1.5 %82%82%82%
Over 2.5 %56%45%64%
Over 3.5 %38%32%43%
Scored1.821.362.18
Conceded1.581.451.68
BTTS56%55%57%
Clean Sheet28%32%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1HakaHaka819
75%
2.4
208+12
3.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.51.0
-
2PK-35PK-35817
62%
2.1
167+9
2.9
88%
62%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.9
-
3JIPPOJIPPO816
62%
2.0
127+5
2.4
75%
38%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.50.9
-
4KooteepeeKooteepee716
71%
2.3
117+4
2.6
57%
57%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
5Klubi-04Klubi-04911
33%
1.2
1515+0
3.3
89%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.7
-
6EIFEIF810
38%
1.2
67-1
1.6
50%
12%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.80.9
-
7JäPSJäPS710
43%
1.4
56-1
1.6
43%
29%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.70.9
-
8SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia86
12%
0.8
716-9
2.9
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
9MPMP85
12%
0.6
1018-8
3.5
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
10KäPaKäPa92
0%
0.2
718-11
2.8
78%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →

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