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MP vs KäPa Result & Analysis

Date: 29/07/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 2-1
MP
MP
Vs
50%
22%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
KäPa
KäPa
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives MP a 50% win probability against KäPa in the Finland: Ykkösliiga on 2026-07-29, with 22% for the draw and 29% for KäPa. The model estimates around 4.0 total goals, with 6+ the most likely total (21%) and 2-1 the most likely scoreline (8.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (92%), Over 2.5 (76%), BTTS Yes (74%).

Results analysis

MP finished 2-1 against KäPa (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 50% home win, 22% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (92%), Over 2.5 (76%), BTTS Yes (74%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MP win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KäPa win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MPMP

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L04L23L00D22D05L01L11D13L33DH·SAL25/08A·JÄP30/08A·KÄP14/09H·TUR22/09A·SJK27/09H·KOO06/10A·PK-19/10A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.902.271.002.430.812.12
vs Stronger (27)0.852.040.922.150.791.93
vs Similar (3)1.334.332.006.001.003.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KäPaKäPa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W14L12L12L30W42W13L22D02L13LH·SJK19/09A·EIF26/09A·JIP04/10H·SAL18/10A·OLS23/10H·OLS26/10A·PK-10/07H·SJK17/07H·KLU21/07A·HAK25/07
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.632.401.862.291.442.50
vs Stronger (28)1.502.501.692.311.332.67
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (2)3.501.004.002.003.000.00
Clean sheet %7% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%06%115%220%320%416%521%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.5%
Under 1.5
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.0%
Under 2.5
24.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.3%
No
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
8.2%
1-1
8.0%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
5.3%
2-0
4.8%
2-3
4.0%
MP goals ↓
KäPa goals →
01234
02.6%2.5%2.7%1.6%0.7%
13.5%8.0%6.2%3.6%1.5%
24.8%8.2%7.1%4.0%1.7%
33.6%6.2%5.3%3.1%1.3%
42.0%3.5%3.0%1.7%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MP goals (down), columns = KäPa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Haka
2.71
Kooteepee
2.00
PK-35
2.00
JIPPO
1.86
EIF
1.67
JäPS
1.50
SJK Akatemia
0.86
MP
0.83
Klubi-04
0.71
KäPa
0.12
MP is 0.71 points better than KäPa in terms of average points per game (0.83 vs 0.12).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Haka
2.71
PK-35
1.86
Kooteepee
1.60
JIPPO
1.43
MP
1.17
EIF
1.00
KäPa
0.88
JäPS
0.83
SJK Akatemia
0.71
Klubi-04
0.71
MP is 0.29 goals better than KäPa in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.88).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
EIF
0.67
Haka
0.86
JIPPO
1.00
PK-35
1.00
JäPS
1.00
Kooteepee
1.20
SJK Akatemia
1.43
Klubi-04
1.43
MP
1.83
KäPa
2.25
MP is 0.42 goals better than KäPa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.83 vs 2.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MPMP

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L20W00D02L02L01L00D00D21WH·SAL25/08A·JÄP30/08A·KÄP14/09H·TUR22/09A·SJK27/09H·KOO06/10A·PK-19/10A·SJK11/07A·JIP15/07H·KOO25/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.970.571.140.310.81
vs Stronger (27)0.370.890.541.000.210.79
vs Similar (3)1.001.671.003.001.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (KäPa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KäPaKäPa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W12L12L11D10W20W02L00D02L12LH·SJK19/09A·EIF26/09A·JIP04/10H·SAL18/10A·OLS23/10H·OLS26/10A·PK-10/07H·SJK17/07H·KLU21/07A·HAK25/07
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.000.640.790.621.19
vs Stronger (28)0.571.070.540.850.601.27
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (2)1.500.002.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KäPa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.0%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes74.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (28)
€4m
SA (30)
€4m
HAK (24)
€1m
KOO (24)
€1m
JIP (25)
€1m
PK- (22)
€1m
EIF (21)
€1m
JÄP (27)
€1m
KÄP (30)
€1m
MP (30)
€0m
KLU (26)
€0m
MP and KäPa have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (0)
€0m
SA (0)
€0m
EIF (0)
€0m
HAK (0)
€0m
JÄP (0)
€0m
JIP (0)
€0m
KÄP (0)
€0m
KLU (0)
€0m
KOO (0)
€0m
MP (0)
€0m
PK- (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (0)
€0m
SA (0)
€0m
EIF (0)
€0m
HAK (0)
€0m
JÄP (0)
€0m
JIP (0)
€0m
KÄP (0)
€0m
KLU (0)
€0m
KOO (0)
€0m
MP (0)
€0m
PK- (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SA (0)
€0m
SA (0)
€0m
EIF (0)
€0m
HAK (0)
€0m
JÄP (0)
€0m
JIP (0)
€0m
KÄP (0)
€0m
KLU (0)
€0m
KOO (0)
€0m
MP (0)
€0m
PK- (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
MP wins
0
Draws
3
KÄP wins

Head-to-head

MP vs KäPa · H/A from MP
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24AKäPa Vs MP3-2
11/07/24HMP Vs KäPa2-6
12/05/24AKäPa Vs MP4-0

MPMP

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HMP Vs Kooteepee3-3
15/07/26AJIPPO Vs MP3-1
11/07/26ASJK Akatemia Vs MP1-1
19/10/24APK-35 Vs MP1-0
06/10/24HMP Vs Kooteepee0-5
27/09/24ASJK Akatemia Vs MP2-2
22/09/24HMP Vs Turku PS0-0
14/09/24AKäPa Vs MP3-2
30/08/24AJäPS Vs MP4-0
25/08/24HMP Vs SalPa1-2

KäPaKäPa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26AHaka Vs KÄP3-1
21/07/26HKÄP Vs Klubi-040-2
17/07/26HKÄP Vs SJK Akatemia2-2
10/07/26APK-35 Vs KÄP3-1
26/10/25HKÄP Vs OLS4-2
23/10/25AOLS Vs KÄP0-3
18/10/25HKÄP Vs SalPa1-2
04/10/25AJIPPO Vs KÄP2-1
26/09/25AEIF Vs KÄP4-1
19/09/25HKÄP Vs SJK Akatemia3-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

MP
MP
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLD0.60
HomeWLDLD0.50
AwayLDLDL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%7%12%
AVG goals3.173.432.94
Over 1.5 %77%79%75%
Over 2.5 %63%71%56%
Over 3.5 %43%36%50%
Scored0.901.000.81
Conceded2.272.432.12
BTTS50%57%44%
Clean Sheet13%14%12%
Corners---
Cards---
KäPa
KäPa
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLL0.92
HomeWLWDL1.17
AwayLLWLL0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals4.203.924.46
Over 1.5 %94%96%92%
Over 2.5 %76%75%77%
Over 3.5 %64%58%69%
Scored1.701.671.73
Conceded2.502.252.73
BTTS76%75%77%
Clean Sheet8%8%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1HakaHaka719
86%
2.7
196+13
3.6
100%
86%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.70.9
-
2PK-35PK-35714
57%
2.0
137+6
2.9
86%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.0
-
3JIPPOJIPPO713
57%
1.9
107+3
2.4
71%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.0
-
4KooteepeeKooteepee510
60%
2.0
86+2
2.8
60%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
5EIFEIF610
50%
1.7
64+2
1.7
50%
17%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.00.7
-
6JäPSJäPS69
50%
1.5
56-1
1.8
50%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.0
-
7SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia76
14%
0.9
510-5
2.1
71%
43%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0000.71.4
-
8MPMP65
17%
0.8
711-4
3.0
83%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
9Klubi-04Klubi-0475
14%
0.7
510-5
2.1
86%
14%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
10KäPaKäPa81
0%
0.1
718-11
3.1
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.2
-
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →

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