PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

MP vs SJK Akatemia Result & Analysis

Date: 27/07/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 1-2
MP
MP
Vs
25%
28%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

After a string of defeats, MP’s home form has been bleak, scoring only 0.43 goals per game while conceding two on average against stronger opponents. SJK Akatemia, on the other hand, has been more balanced away, netting a goal per match and keeping a single goal against weaker sides. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 47% chance, a draw 28%, and a home win 25%. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal total at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. The suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.2% and Under 3.5 at 73.9%. Edge percentages are not provided for these picks. The match is expected to be tight, but the data points to SJK Akatemia overcoming MP on the road.

Results analysis

After a string of four defeats, MP’s home form remains bleak, while SJK Akatemia’s away record shows a mixed run but a recent 2-6 loss to Klubi-04. The Pythia model correctly predicted an away win, which materialised as a 1-2 result. The model’s favourite, “Away win,” came through with a 47% probability. Its suggested picks also delivered: “Over 1.5” hit at 74.2% and “Under 3.5” hit at 73.9%. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, was not achieved, but the 1-2 outcome fell within the model’s broader expectations. Overall, the predictions largely aligned with the match’s reality.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

MP win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia win✓ Hit
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MPMP

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-600D12L03L01L00D01L21W26L11D02LA·SJK28/05H·KOO02/06H·TUR12/06A·TUR15/06A·JIP19/06H·SAL30/06A·PK-06/07H·KÄP11/07A·JÄP17/07A·FF 24/07
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.951.950.622.501.171.58
vs Stronger (18)0.941.610.432.001.271.36
vs Similar (2)1.005.002.006.000.004.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D11D03L03L01L12L30W12L40WA·JÄP02/06A·FF 12/06H·P-I16/06H·KOO20/06H·TUR24/06A·TUR29/06H·JIP06/07H·PK-13/07A·SAL17/07H·KÄP20/07
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.291.291.181.271.401.30
vs Stronger (2)3.500.501.001.006.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.861.640.861.710.861.57
vs Weaker (5)1.600.602.000.331.001.00
Clean sheet %29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
10.4%
1-2 ✓
9.3%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
MP goals ↓
SJK Akatemia goals →
01234
08.8%10%8.9%4.6%1.8%
16.7%13%9.3%4.8%1.8%
24.1%6.3%4.9%2.5%1.0%
31.4%2.2%1.7%0.9%0.3%
40.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MP goals (down), columns = SJK Akatemia goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kooteepee
2.15
FF Jaro
2.00
JIPPO
1.93
Turku PS
1.59
JäPS
1.30
PK-35
1.22
SJK Akatemia
1.07
SalPa
1.07
KäPa
0.90
MP
0.59
KPV-j
0.50
MP is 0.48 points worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of average points per game (0.59 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kooteepee
2.78
FF Jaro
1.89
JIPPO
1.81
JäPS
1.63
KäPa
1.62
Turku PS
1.48
SJK Akatemia
1.30
SalPa
1.15
PK-35
1.07
MP
0.81
KPV-j
0.50
MP is 0.48 goals worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
JIPPO
0.93
Turku PS
1.07
FF Jaro
1.11
Kooteepee
1.19
PK-35
1.26
KPV-j
1.50
SJK Akatemia
1.52
SalPa
1.78
JäPS
1.96
MP
2.26
KäPa
2.34
MP is 0.74 goals worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.26 vs 1.52).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MPMP

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D00D00D00D10W13L01L00DA·SJK28/05H·KOO02/06H·TUR12/06A·TUR15/06A·JIP19/06H·SAL30/06A·PK-06/07H·KÄP11/07A·JÄP17/07A·FF 24/07
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.251.120.500.58
vs Stronger (18)0.390.610.140.860.550.45
vs Similar (2)0.502.501.003.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %55% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D02L02L00D10W10W02L00DA·JÄP02/06A·FF 12/06H·P-I16/06H·KOO20/06H·TUR24/06A·TUR29/06H·JIP06/07H·PK-13/07A·SAL17/07H·KÄP20/07
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.710.360.730.500.70
vs Stronger (2)1.500.000.000.003.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.360.930.571.000.140.86
vs Weaker (5)0.200.400.000.330.500.50
Clean sheet %62% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MPMP

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D03L01L00D01L11D13L10W02LA·SJK28/05H·KOO02/06H·TUR12/06A·TUR15/06A·JIP19/06H·SAL30/06A·PK-06/07H·KÄP11/07A·JÄP17/07A·FF 24/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.551.150.381.380.671.00
vs Stronger (18)0.561.000.291.140.730.91
vs Similar (2)0.502.501.003.000.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W11D01L01L01L02L20W10W40WA·JÄP02/06A·FF 12/06H·P-I16/06H·KOO20/06H·TUR24/06A·TUR29/06H·JIP06/07H·PK-13/07A·SAL17/07H·KÄP20/07
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.860.570.820.550.900.60
vs Stronger (2)2.000.501.001.003.000.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.710.290.710.710.71
vs Weaker (5)1.400.202.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %52% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
KOO (19)
€1m
JIP (21)
€1m
PK- (20)
€1m
JÄP (24)
€1m
KÄP (25)
€1m
MP (19)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (8)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (10)
€1m
JIP (7)
€0m
PK- (6)
€0m
JÄP (11)
€0m
MP (10)
€0m
KÄP (8)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FJ (6)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
KÄP (6)
€0m
JÄP (4)
€0m
JIP (4)
€0m
KOO (2)
€0m
MP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
KOO (7)
€0m
JIP (10)
€0m
KÄP (11)
€0m
PK- (7)
€0m
JÄP (9)
€0m
MP (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MP wins
1
Draws
0
SA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

MP vs SJK Akatemia · H/A from MP
DateH/AGameScore
28/05/24ASJK Akatemia Vs MP0-0

MPMP

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/07/24AFF Jaro Vs MP2-0
17/07/24AJäPS Vs MP1-1
11/07/24HMP Vs KäPa2-6
06/07/24APK-35 Vs MP1-2
30/06/24HMP Vs SalPa0-1
19/06/24AJIPPO Vs MP0-0
15/06/24ATurku PS Vs MP1-0
12/06/24HMP Vs Turku PS0-3
02/06/24HMP Vs Kooteepee1-2
28/05/24ASJK Akatemia Vs MP0-0

SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/07/24HSA Vs KäPa4-0
17/07/24ASalPa Vs SA2-1
13/07/24HSA Vs PK-353-0
06/07/24HSA Vs JIPPO1-2
29/06/24ATurku PS Vs SA1-0
24/06/24HSA Vs Turku PS0-3
20/06/24HSA Vs Kooteepee0-3
16/06/24HSA Vs P-Iirot1-1
12/06/24AFF Jaro Vs SA1-1
02/06/24AJäPS Vs SA1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

MP
MP
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL0.70
HomeLLLLL0.25
AwayLDWDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%0%25%
AVG goals2.903.122.75
Over 1.5 %70%75%67%
Over 2.5 %55%62%50%
Over 3.5 %30%25%33%
Scored0.950.621.17
Conceded1.952.501.58
BTTS30%50%17%
Clean Sheet25%12%33%
Corners---
Cards---
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
Finland: Ykkösliiga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.19
HomeLLLWW1.27
AwayDDDLL1.10
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%36%20%
AVG goals2.572.452.70
Over 1.5 %81%82%80%
Over 2.5 %52%64%40%
Over 3.5 %14%9%20%
Scored1.291.181.40
Conceded1.291.271.30
BTTS48%27%70%
Clean Sheet29%36%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KooteepeeKooteepee2758
67%
2.1
7532+43
4.0
85%
78%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.81.2
-
2FF JaroFF Jaro2754
63%
2.0
5130+21
3.0
74%
59%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.91.1
-
3JIPPOJIPPO2752
59%
1.9
4925+24
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.80.9
-
4Turku PSTurku PS2743
44%
1.6
4029+11
2.6
70%
48%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.1
-
5JäPSJäPS2735
33%
1.3
4453-9
3.6
89%
74%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.0
-
6PK-35PK-352733
30%
1.2
2934-5
2.3
67%
44%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.3
-
7SJK AkatemiaSJK Akatemia2729
22%
1.1
3541-6
2.8
85%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
8SalPaSalPa2729
26%
1.1
3148-17
2.9
81%
52%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
9KäPaKäPa2926
21%
0.9
4768-21
4.0
93%
66%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.62.3
-
10MPMP2716
11%
0.6
2261-39
3.1
74%
63%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
11KPV-jKPV-j21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →

← all matches