After a string of defeats, MP’s home form has been bleak, scoring only 0.43 goals per game while conceding two on average against stronger opponents. SJK Akatemia, on the other hand, has been more balanced away, netting a goal per match and keeping a single goal against weaker sides. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 47% chance, a draw 28%, and a home win 25%. The expected total is 2.6 goals, centring on a 2-goal total at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability. The suggested selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.2% and Under 3.5 at 73.9%. Edge percentages are not provided for these picks. The match is expected to be tight, but the data points to SJK Akatemia overcoming MP on the road.
Results analysis
After a string of four defeats, MP’s home form remains bleak, while SJK Akatemia’s away record shows a mixed run but a recent 2-6 loss to Klubi-04. The Pythia model correctly predicted an away win, which materialised as a 1-2 result. The model’s favourite, “Away win,” came through with a 47% probability. Its suggested picks also delivered: “Over 1.5” hit at 74.2% and “Under 3.5” hit at 73.9%. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, was not achieved, but the 1-2 outcome fell within the model’s broader expectations. Overall, the predictions largely aligned with the match’s reality.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MP win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia win✓ Hit
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.95
1.95
0.62
2.50
1.17
1.58
vs Stronger (18)
0.94
1.61
0.43
2.00
1.27
1.36
vs Similar (2)
1.00
5.00
2.00
6.00
0.00
4.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK Akatemia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.29
1.29
1.18
1.27
1.40
1.30
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
6.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.64
0.86
1.71
0.86
1.57
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
0.60
2.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
29% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
10.4%
1-2 ✓
9.3%
0-2
8.9%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
MP goals ↓
SJK Akatemia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
10%
8.9%
4.6%
1.8%
1
6.7%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
4.1%
6.3%
4.9%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MP goals (down), columns = SJK Akatemia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kooteepee
2.15
FF Jaro
2.00
JIPPO
1.93
Turku PS
1.59
JäPS
1.30
PK-35
1.22
SJK Akatemia
1.07
SalPa
1.07
KäPa
0.90
MP
0.59
KPV-j
0.50
MP is 0.48 points worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of average points per game (0.59 vs 1.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kooteepee
2.78
FF Jaro
1.89
JIPPO
1.81
JäPS
1.63
KäPa
1.62
Turku PS
1.48
SJK Akatemia
1.30
SalPa
1.15
PK-35
1.07
MP
0.81
KPV-j
0.50
MP is 0.48 goals worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JIPPO
0.93
Turku PS
1.07
FF Jaro
1.11
Kooteepee
1.19
PK-35
1.26
KPV-j
1.50
SJK Akatemia
1.52
SalPa
1.78
JäPS
1.96
MP
2.26
KäPa
2.34
MP is 0.74 goals worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.26 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.25
1.12
0.50
0.58
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
0.61
0.14
0.86
0.55
0.45
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
55% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK Akatemia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.71
0.36
0.73
0.50
0.70
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.93
0.57
1.00
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
62% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.55
1.15
0.38
1.38
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (18)
0.56
1.00
0.29
1.14
0.73
0.91
vs Similar (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK Akatemia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
0.57
0.82
0.55
0.90
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.71
0.29
0.71
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.20
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
52% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →