The model picks an away win, with a 45% chance for SJK Akatemia, 30% for MP and 26% for a draw. The expected total goals hover at 3.1, but the most likely total is two, a 23% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.7% chance, a tidy draw that reflects both sides’ recent form. MP, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages one goal scored and 2.11 conceded, while SJK Akatemia, on the road against a weaker side, scores 2.17 and concedes 2.33. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.5%), Under 6.5 (96.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Under 5.5 (90.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.2%), Away +2 handicap (86.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (83.8%), and Over 1.5 (82.8%). MP’s recent five matches were LLLLW after four straight defeats, while SJK Akatemia’s last five were LWLLD after a loss. The match is likely to see a modest goal tally with the away side edging out a win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
MP win
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia win
44.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
2.03
1.08
2.33
1.72
1.83
vs Stronger (26)
1.46
1.88
1.00
2.11
1.71
1.76
vs Similar (4)
1.50
3.00
1.33
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK Akatemia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.97
1.57
1.93
1.56
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.94
1.00
2.14
1.20
1.80
vs Weaker (12)
2.17
2.17
2.17
2.00
2.17
2.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
Under 1.5
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.2%
Under 2.5
39.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.8%
Under 3.5
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.7%
No
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
6.7%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
0-0
5.5%
1-3
5.3%
MP goals ↓
SJK Akatemia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
6.6%
6.7%
3.8%
1.7%
1
5.1%
12%
9.2%
5.3%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.4%
6.4%
3.7%
1.6%
3
2.0%
3.4%
2.9%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MP goals (down), columns = SJK Akatemia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Haka
2.38
Kooteepee
2.29
PK-35
2.12
JIPPO
2.00
JäPS
1.43
EIF
1.25
Klubi-04
1.22
SJK Akatemia
0.75
MP
0.62
KäPa
0.22
MP is 0.12 points worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of average points per game (0.62 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Haka
2.50
PK-35
2.00
Klubi-04
1.67
Kooteepee
1.57
JIPPO
1.50
MP
1.25
SJK Akatemia
0.88
KäPa
0.78
EIF
0.75
JäPS
0.71
MP is 0.38 goals better than SJK Akatemia in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
JäPS
0.86
JIPPO
0.88
EIF
0.88
PK-35
0.88
Kooteepee
1.00
Haka
1.00
Klubi-04
1.67
KäPa
2.00
SJK Akatemia
2.00
MP
2.25
MP is 0.25 goals worse than SJK Akatemia in terms of goals conceded per game (2.25 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MP or Draw
55.3%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
45%
covers MP + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MP or SJK Akatemia
74.5%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
45%
covers MP + SJK Akatemia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or SJK Akatemia
70.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
26%
45%
covers Draw + SJK Akatemia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MP over/under 0.5
Over
74.9%
Under
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5
Over
40.2%
Under
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 3.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5
Over
82.3%
Under
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5
Over
51.6%
Under
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5
Over
25.1%
Under
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 3.5
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MP, so a minus line means MP give that many goals of a start and SJK Akatemia receive them. At -1, MP must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MP win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MP)
MP -2
4.9%
Draw -2
8.8%
SJK Akatemia +2
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (MP)
MP -1
13.7%
Draw -1
16.0%
SJK Akatemia +1
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (MP)
MP +1
55.3%
Draw +1
20.3%
SJK Akatemia -1
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (MP)
MP +2
75.6%
Draw +2
13.8%
SJK Akatemia -2
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.07
0.75
1.33
0.72
0.89
vs Stronger (26)
0.65
1.00
0.67
1.11
0.65
0.94
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK Akatemia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.90
0.29
0.86
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.94
0.14
1.14
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
0.58
0.92
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.5%
Under 0.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.3%
Under 1.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.4%
Under 2.5
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MP over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.5%
Under
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.3%
Under
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.94
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
0.88
0.33
1.00
1.06
0.82
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.50
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SJK Akatemia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SJK Akatemia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.07
1.29
1.07
1.06
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
1.25
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (MP) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.3%
Under 1.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MP over/under 0.5 2H
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MP over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.4%
Under
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SJK Akatemia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Finland: Ykkösliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Ykkösliiga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Haka
PK-35
JIPPO
Kooteepee
Klubi-04
EIF
JäPS
KäPa