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Mqabba vs Marsa Result & Analysis

Date: 11/03/2023
Time: 15:30
Final 1-2
Mqabba
Mqabba
Vs
37%
28%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mqabba win✗ Miss
36.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Marsa win✓ Hit
35.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MqabbaMqabba

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W21W33D01L10W10W01L23L12L05LH·ZUR14/12A·TAR19/12H·MAR22/12A·MTA08/01H·ATT22/01A·QRE28/01H·ST.05/02A·LIJ12/02H·FGU25/02A·MAR05/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.132.041.091.821.172.25
vs Stronger (2)0.503.001.002.000.004.00
vs Similar (18)1.281.831.291.431.272.09
vs Weaker (3)0.672.670.672.67--
Clean sheet %22% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D22D32W02L10W13L13L03L00DH·MTA15/12A·FGU18/12H·ATT21/12A·ST.07/01H·ST.21/01A·LIJ28/01H·FGU05/02A·MAR11/02A·SWI25/02H·MTA05/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.481.551.271.081.67
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (15)1.601.601.711.571.501.62
vs Weaker (7)0.861.291.250.750.332.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mqabba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%015%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.4%
Under 2.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.3%
Under 3.5
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.4%
1-2 ✓
8.2%
1-0
7.8%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
6.0%
Mqabba goals ↓
Marsa goals →
01234
07.7%7.6%6.0%2.7%0.9%
17.8%13%8.2%3.7%1.3%
26.2%8.4%5.7%2.6%0.9%
32.8%3.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mqabba goals (down), columns = Marsa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sliema Wanderers
2.78
Naxxar Lions
2.22
Swieqi United
1.79
Zejtun Corinthians
1.74
Tarxien Rainbows
1.70
Fgura United
1.46
St. Andrews
1.43
Lija Athletic
1.39
Attard
1.32
Melita
1.26
Marsa
1.25
San Gwann
1.21
Zurrieq
1.19
Qrendi
1.11
Marsaskala
1.04
Mqabba
0.79
Vittoriosa Stars
0.79
Mtarfa
0.75
Mqabba is 0.46 points worse than Marsa in terms of average points per game (0.79 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sliema Wanderers
2.44
Naxxar Lions
2.15
Tarxien Rainbows
2.04
Fgura United
2.04
Swieqi United
1.89
Zejtun Corinthians
1.89
Lija Athletic
1.82
Marsaskala
1.79
Melita
1.56
Marsa
1.43
Zurrieq
1.41
Attard
1.39
Qrendi
1.36
St. Andrews
1.32
San Gwann
1.18
Mqabba
1.04
Vittoriosa Stars
0.96
Mtarfa
0.75
Mqabba is 0.39 goals worse than Marsa in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sliema Wanderers
0.52
Naxxar Lions
1.04
Tarxien Rainbows
1.19
Melita
1.33
Swieqi United
1.36
Fgura United
1.39
St. Andrews
1.43
Marsa
1.50
Mtarfa
1.61
San Gwann
1.61
Attard
1.61
Zejtun Corinthians
1.67
Qrendi
1.86
Lija Athletic
1.93
Mqabba
2.00
Marsaskala
2.04
Vittoriosa Stars
2.04
Zurrieq
2.22
Mqabba is 0.50 goals worse than Marsa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.50).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MqabbaMqabba

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D01L10W00D00D22D11D03LH·ZUR14/12A·TAR19/12H·MAR22/12A·MTA08/01H·ATT22/01A·QRE28/01H·ST.05/02A·LIJ12/02H·FGU25/02A·MAR05/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.411.050.300.900.501.17
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (17)0.470.760.330.330.551.00
vs Weaker (3)0.332.000.332.00--
Clean sheet %45% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L20W00D10W00D10W03L00D00DH·TAR04/12A·MAR11/12H·MTA15/12A·FGU18/12A·ST.07/01A·LIJ28/01H·FGU05/02A·MAR11/02A·SWI25/02H·MTA05/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.550.500.670.330.450.64
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (12)0.500.750.400.600.570.86
vs Weaker (7)0.710.141.000.000.330.33
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Mqabba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mqabba over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mqabba over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mqabba over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MqabbaMqabba

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D33D00D00D10W01L01L01L02LH·ZUR14/12A·TAR19/12H·MAR22/12A·MTA08/01H·ATT22/01A·QRE28/01H·ST.05/02A·LIJ12/02H·FGU25/02A·MAR05/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.681.090.701.100.671.08
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (17)0.761.180.831.330.731.09
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.330.67--
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Marsa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MarsaMarsa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-333D10W00D00D22D10W03L10W03L00DH·TAR04/12A·MAR11/12H·MTA15/12A·FGU18/12A·ST.07/01A·LIJ28/01H·FGU05/02A·MAR11/02A·SWI25/02H·MTA05/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.901.000.780.641.00
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (12)1.250.751.600.801.000.71
vs Weaker (7)0.141.140.250.750.001.67
Clean sheet %55% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Mqabba) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mqabba over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mqabba over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mqabba over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marsa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.9%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (25)
€7m
NL (16)
€1m
TR (8)
€1m
SU (2)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (11)
€3m
NL (4)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (2)
€0m
FU (1)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (4)
€2m
NL (5)
€0m
TR (2)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
ZUR (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (10)
€2m
NL (7)
€1m
TR (4)
€0m
ZUR (1)
€0m
SU (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MQA wins
0
Draws
1
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mqabba vs Marsa · H/A from MQA
DateH/AGameScore
08/10/22AMarsa Vs MQA2-1

MqabbaMqabba

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/23AMarsaskala Vs MQA5-0
25/02/23HMQA Vs Fgura United1-2
12/02/23ALija Athletic Vs MQA3-2
05/02/23HMQA Vs St. Andrews0-1
28/01/23AQrendi Vs MQA0-1
22/01/23HMQA Vs Attard1-0
08/01/23AMtarfa Vs MQA1-0
22/12/22HMQA Vs Marsaskala3-3
19/12/22ATarxien Rainbows Vs MQA1-2
14/12/22HMQA Vs Zurrieq1-0

MarsaMarsa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/23HMAR Vs Mtarfa0-0
25/02/23ASwieqi United Vs MAR3-0
11/02/23AMarsaskala Vs MAR3-1
05/02/23HMAR Vs Fgura United1-3
28/01/23ALija Athletic Vs MAR0-1
21/01/23HMAR Vs St. Andrews0-2
07/01/23ASt. Andrews Vs MAR2-3
21/12/22HMAR Vs Attard2-2
18/12/22AFgura United Vs MAR0-0
15/12/22HMAR Vs Mtarfa2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mqabba
Mqabba
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.91
HomeWDWLL0.91
AwayWLWLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%27%25%
AVG goals3.172.913.42
Over 1.5 %70%64%75%
Over 2.5 %61%55%67%
Over 3.5 %30%27%33%
Scored1.131.091.17
Conceded2.041.822.25
BTTS48%45%50%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Marsa
Marsa
Malta: Challenge League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLD1.22
HomeWDLLD1.45
AwayDWWLL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%36%25%
AVG goals2.782.822.75
Over 1.5 %83%91%75%
Over 2.5 %52%45%58%
Over 3.5 %39%36%42%
Scored1.301.551.08
Conceded1.481.271.67
BTTS48%45%50%
Clean Sheet30%36%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Sliema WanderersSliema Wanderers2775
89%
2.8
6614+52
3.0
78%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3222.40.5
-
2Naxxar LionsNaxxar Lions2760
70%
2.2
5828+30
3.2
89%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0012.11.0
-
3Swieqi UnitedSwieqi United2850
50%
1.8
5338+15
3.2
93%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
-
4Zejtun CorinthiansZejtun Corinthians2747
56%
1.7
5145+6
3.6
89%
81%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.7
-
5Tarxien RainbowsTarxien Rainbows2746
48%
1.7
5532+23
3.2
85%
67%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.2
-
6Fgura UnitedFgura United2841
39%
1.5
5739+18
3.4
86%
61%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.4
-
7St. AndrewsSt. Andrews2840
39%
1.4
3740-3
2.8
82%
46%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
8Lija AthleticLija Athletic2839
39%
1.4
5154-3
3.8
86%
68%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.9
-
9AttardAttard2837
36%
1.3
3945-6
3.0
75%
61%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10MarsaMarsa2835
32%
1.2
4042-2
2.9
86%
61%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
11MelitaMelita2734
33%
1.3
4236+6
2.9
78%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.3
-
12San GwannSan Gwann2834
32%
1.2
3345-12
2.8
82%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
13ZurrieqZurrieq2732
37%
1.2
3860-22
3.6
85%
81%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
-
14QrendiQrendi2831
29%
1.1
3852-14
3.2
75%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15MarsaskalaMarsaskala2829
25%
1.0
5057-7
3.8
96%
82%
61%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.82.0
-
16MqabbaMqabba2822
21%
0.8
2956-27
3.0
71%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
17Vittoriosa StarsVittoriosa Stars2822
21%
0.8
2757-30
3.0
79%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
18MtarfaMtarfa2821
18%
0.8
2145-24
2.4
61%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
Malta: Challenge League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Malta: Challenge League stats & trends →

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