The contest between Mura and Bravo is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home win stands at 30%, a draw at 29%, and the away side at 41%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.7% chance. Mura, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Bravo on the road averages 1.5 scored and 1.64 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.9%), Under 5.5 (95.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (88.6%), Under 4.5 (88.0%) and Away +2 handicap (87.2%). Mura’s recent form shows two straight defeats, ending 0-2, whereas Bravo’s last five games include a win, a 2-0 victory over Mura, and a return to form. The balance remains fine, with the model’s pick clearly the most likely outcome.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mura win
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bravo win
41.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
1.07
1.29
1.25
2.25
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.64
0.89
1.00
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.94
1.40
1.80
1.55
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.43
1.36
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.56
1.46
1.46
1.50
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.5%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.2%
Mura goals ↓
Bravo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
9.5%
7.6%
3.6%
1.3%
1
7.6%
14%
8.8%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.2%
7.3%
5.2%
2.4%
0.9%
3
2.0%
2.8%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Bravo goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Mura is 0.57 points worse than Bravo in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Mura and Bravo are level in goals scored per game (both 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Mura is 0.86 goals worse than Bravo in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mura
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bravo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.6%
Under 21.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mura or Draw
58.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
29%
41%
covers Mura + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura or Bravo
71.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
29%
41%
covers Mura + Bravo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bravo
70.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
29%
41%
covers Draw + Bravo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mura over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5
Over
75.6%
Under
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mura, so a minus line means Mura give that many goals of a start and Bravo receive them. At -1, Mura must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mura win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mura)
Mura -2
4.0%
Draw -2
8.7%
Bravo +2
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mura)
Mura -1
12.7%
Draw -1
17.2%
Bravo +1
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mura)
Mura +1
58.7%
Draw +1
21.1%
Bravo -1
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mura)
Mura +2
79.7%
Draw +2
12.7%
Bravo -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.79
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.93
0.56
0.67
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.94
0.40
1.00
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.57
0.64
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.81
0.54
0.69
0.64
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.57
0.50
0.69
1.19
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.33
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.86
0.71
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.74
0.92
0.77
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Mura and Bravo have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Mura and Bravo have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Bravo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura and Bravo have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →