Mura are the clear favourites to win, with a 45% chance of victory, a 27% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of an away win. The model expects 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% probability. Mura, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Brinje-Grosuplje, on the road against a comparable side, average 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.7%), Under 5.5 (93.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Home +2 handicap (88.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.2%) and Under 4.5 (85.2%). Mura’s recent form shows two straight defeats after a 0-2 loss to Bravo, while Brinje-Grosuplje come off a win, 4-1 over Celje. The match is poised to favour Mura, but the low-scoring nature of both sides suggests a cautious, balanced contest.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mura win
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje win
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
1.07
1.29
1.25
2.25
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.64
0.89
1.00
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.94
1.40
1.80
1.55
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.10
2.40
0.73
1.67
1.47
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.44
1.25
1.43
0.71
1.44
1.67
vs Weaker (13)
2.62
0.92
3.14
0.71
2.00
1.17
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.2%
Under 2.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.0%
Under 3.5
70.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
7.7%
0-0
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
5.6%
Mura goals ↓
Brinje-Grosuplje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
6.4%
4.6%
1.8%
0.6%
1
8.7%
13%
7.1%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.7%
9.2%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.0%
4.8%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Brinje-Grosuplje goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Mura is 0.14 points worse than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Mura is 0.43 goals worse than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.57).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Mura is 0.29 goals worse than Brinje-Grosuplje in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mura
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Brinje-Grosuplje
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.2%
Under 9.5
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.9%
Under 21.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mura or Draw
71.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
28%
covers Mura + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura or Brinje-Grosuplje
72.6%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
28%
covers Mura + Brinje-Grosuplje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Brinje-Grosuplje
55.6%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Brinje-Grosuplje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mura over/under 0.5
Over
79.0%
Under
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mura, so a minus line means Mura give that many goals of a start and Brinje-Grosuplje receive them. At -1, Mura must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mura win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mura)
Mura -2
9.3%
Draw -2
13.7%
Brinje-Grosuplje +2
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mura)
Mura -1
23.1%
Draw -1
21.3%
Brinje-Grosuplje +1
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mura)
Mura +1
71.8%
Draw +1
16.2%
Brinje-Grosuplje -1
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mura)
Mura +2
87.9%
Draw +2
8.2%
Brinje-Grosuplje -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.79
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.93
0.56
0.67
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.94
0.40
1.00
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.20
0.33
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.44
0.86
0.14
0.89
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.54
1.57
0.43
0.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.57
0.50
0.69
1.19
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.33
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Brinje-Grosuplje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brinje-Grosuplje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.20
0.40
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.81
0.57
0.57
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.38
1.57
0.29
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brinje-Grosuplje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Mura's squad is €2m more valuable than Brinje-Grosuplje's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Mura and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Brinje-Grosuplje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura's defence is €1m more valuable than Brinje-Grosuplje's (€2m vs €1m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →