The model favours an away win, with the odds 43% for Maribor, 30% for Mura and 26% for a draw. The expected total goals hover around 3.0, yet the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.3% probability. Mura, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Maribor, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 88.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 77.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 73.6%, and Over 1.5 at 80.8%. Each pick is listed with its exact percentage, and the edge is noted only where provided.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Maribor, failed to deliver an away win, and the match ended in a 0-0 draw, a stark contrast to the model’s expectation of a 43% chance for the hosts to triumph. The model’s pick was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 19.5 fouls hit, as did Over 2.5 cards, Over 21.5 fouls, and Under 5.5 cards, each with probabilities of 88.2%, 80.3%, 77.6%, and 73.6% respectively. Over 1.5 was missed, with an 80.8% probability. The game’s final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely 1-1, 1-2, or 2-1 outcome, but the draw surprised the 30% home win and 26% draw odds.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mura win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.40
1.27
1.67
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
2.08
1.14
1.86
1.17
2.33
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.88
1.38
1.50
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
1.60
1.13
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.44
1.44
1.11
0.89
1.78
vs Weaker (10)
2.20
0.70
2.20
0.80
2.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
7.2%
0-2
6.8%
0-0 ✓
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.7%
Mura goals ↓
Maribor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
7.2%
6.8%
3.7%
1.5%
1
5.7%
12%
9.1%
5.0%
2.0%
2
4.6%
7.5%
6.1%
3.3%
1.4%
3
2.1%
3.4%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Mura is 0.83 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Mura is 0.83 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Mura is 0.69 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Mura is 13.9 percentage points worse than Maribor in terms of average possession (46% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mura
For 4.7 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 12.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maribor
For 4.7 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 13.7 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
9.9
11.6
2.8
3.1
2.5
25.3
26.2
24.5
vs Stronger (22)
11.8
11.6
11.9
3.3
2.9
3.6
24.6
25.1
24.3
vs Similar (28)
9.6
8.8
11.0
2.4
3.3
1.6
26.2
27.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
53%
71%
38%
48%
28%
79%
88%
71%
% under line
38%
47%
29%
62%
52%
72%
21%
12%
29%
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.9
8.7
3.5
3.9
3.1
25.5
25.3
25.7
vs Stronger (2)
11.5
9.0
14.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
19.5
23.0
16.0
vs Similar (27)
8.7
8.7
8.6
4.1
5.0
3.3
26.6
26.8
26.3
vs Weaker (21)
10.1
11.9
8.0
2.7
2.6
2.8
24.8
23.6
26.4
% over line
39%
42%
35%
48%
48%
48%
70%
67%
73%
% under line
61%
58%
65%
52%
52%
52%
30%
33%
27%
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.0
Celje
10.0
Aluminij
9.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.8
Koper
9.7
NK Domzale
9.4
Bravo
9.3
Maribor
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.6
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.9
Aluminij
26.0
Bravo
25.7
Maribor
25.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.4
Mura
25.2
Koper
24.6
Celje
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.7%
Under 9.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
77.6%
Under 21.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.85
0.86
0.57
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.47
0.62
1.00
0.44
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.67
0.56
0.56
0.11
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.23
0.29
1.29
0.67
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.41
0.75
0.50
0.56
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.47
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
0.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.78
0.89
0.56
0.78
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.10
1.20
0.00
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Mura's squad is €5m less valuable than Maribor's (€5m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura's attack is €3m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura and Maribor have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Bravo
Koper
NK Domzale
Rogaška
Radomlje
Aluminij
Nafta