The contest between Mura and Maribor sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 29%, a draw at 31% and the visitors at 40%. The expected tally is 2.3 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 28% chance. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.5% probability. Mura, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.89 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Maribor, on the road to a weaker side, nets 1.5 and concedes 1.17. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 4.5 (92.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.7%) and Away +2 handicap (88.8%). The recent form shows Mura rattled after two straight defeats, while Maribor rides a two-game winning run. This match offers a balanced, uncertain contest with the model’s pick firmly pointing to an away victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Mura win
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.80
1.07
1.29
1.25
2.25
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.64
0.89
1.00
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (16)
1.50
1.94
1.40
1.80
1.55
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.00
2.50
0.71
1.00
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.47
1.11
2.33
0.89
0.70
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.09
0.82
2.80
0.40
1.50
1.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.4%
Under 1.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.4%
Under 2.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.9%
0-0
11.7%
1-0
9.0%
0-2
8.4%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.1%
Mura goals ↓
Maribor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
12%
8.4%
3.6%
1.1%
1
9.0%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
5.1%
6.5%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.7%
2.2%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Mura is 1.14 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Mura is 0.71 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Mura is 1.29 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Mura
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Maribor
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.8%
Under 9.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.6%
Under 21.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mura or Draw
58.6%
Avg Implied -
28%
31%
41%
covers Mura + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura or Maribor
69.1%
Avg Implied -
28%
31%
41%
covers Mura + Maribor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Maribor
72.3%
Avg Implied -
28%
31%
41%
covers Draw + Maribor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mura over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5
Over
71.9%
Under
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5
Over
36.3%
Under
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Mura, so a minus line means Mura give that many goals of a start and Maribor receive them. At -1, Mura must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mura win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mura)
Mura -2
3.0%
Draw -2
7.7%
Maribor +2
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mura)
Mura -1
10.6%
Draw -1
17.1%
Maribor +1
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mura)
Mura +1
58.6%
Draw +1
22.2%
Maribor -1
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mura)
Mura +2
80.8%
Draw +2
12.5%
Maribor -2
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.50
0.79
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.93
0.56
0.67
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.94
0.40
1.00
0.64
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.29
0.14
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.42
1.00
0.11
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.36
1.80
0.20
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.57
0.50
0.69
1.19
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.71
0.33
0.33
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (16)
0.94
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.91
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Maribor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.21
0.57
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.68
1.33
0.78
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.64
0.45
1.00
0.20
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Mura's squad is €5m less valuable than Maribor's (€5m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Mura's attack is €3m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Maribor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura and Maribor have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Aluminij
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
Radomlje