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Mura vs Nafta Prediction & Stats

Date: 17/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Mura
Mura
Vs
28%
35%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity dominates the outlook for this encounter. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 1.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% chance. The most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 17.4% probability, underscoring the cautious approach both sides are likely to take.

Mura, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Nafta on the road has a stronger offensive record of 1.67 goals per game and a solid 0.67 conceded. Recent form shows Mura struggling after two straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Bravo, whereas Nafta has also endured three consecutive losses, falling 2-3 to Maribor.

The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 28% for a home victory, 35% for a draw, and 37% for an away triumph. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 4.5 (96.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.8%), and Away under 2.5 goals (92.1%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mura win
28.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
35.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta win
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MuraMura

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W21W23L22D10W25L13L21W01L02LA·PRI10/05H·MAR17/05A·RAD22/05A·CEL17/07H·OLI25/07A·NAF01/08H·RAD10/08A·BRI16/08H·KOP22/08A·BRA29/08
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.801.071.291.252.25
vs Stronger (14)0.791.640.891.000.602.80
vs Similar (16)1.501.941.401.801.552.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D00D10W02L30W52W11D13L01L23LH·TRI22/05A·PRI27/05H·PRI31/05H·KOP17/07A·BRA26/07H·MUR01/08A·ALU09/08H·CEL15/08A·OLI21/08H·MAR30/08← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.870.972.071.271.670.67
vs Stronger (3)1.002.331.503.000.001.00
vs Similar (16)1.690.881.711.141.670.67
vs Weaker (11)2.360.732.670.832.000.60
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%17%027%128%216%37%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.8%
Under 1.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.7%
Under 2.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
11.3%
Under 3.5
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.9%
No
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.4%
1-1
14.7%
0-1
14.6%
1-0
12.1%
0-2
7.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-0
5.6%
2-1
5.6%
Mura goals ↓
Nafta goals →
01234
017%15%7.9%2.6%0.7%
112%15%6.6%2.2%0.5%
25.6%5.6%2.8%0.9%0.2%
31.6%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
40.3%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Nafta goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Mura and Nafta are level in average points per game (both 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Mura is 0.57 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Mura is 0.29 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MuraMura

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

NaftaNafta

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MuraMura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (26)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (6)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (26)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (18)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Mura or Draw
63.2%
Avg Implied -
28%
35%
37%
covers Mura + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura or Nafta
64.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
35%
37%
covers Mura + Nafta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Nafta
71.9%
Avg Implied -
28%
35%
37%
covers Draw + Nafta
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Mura over/under 0.5
Over
56.6%
Under
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5
Over
20.3%
Under
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
Under
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Mura, so a minus line means Mura give that many goals of a start and Nafta receive them. At -1, Mura must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Mura win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Mura)
Mura -2
2.4%
Draw -2
7.3%
Nafta +2
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Mura)
Mura -1
9.7%
Draw -1
18.5%
Nafta +1
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Mura)
Mura +1
63.2%
Draw +1
22.2%
Nafta -1
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Mura)
Mura +2
85.5%
Draw +2
10.4%
Nafta -2
4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MuraMura

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W12L10W10W12L01L10W00D01LA·PRI10/05H·MAR17/05A·RAD22/05A·CEL17/07H·OLI25/07A·NAF01/08H·RAD10/08A·BRI16/08H·KOP22/08A·BRA29/08
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.500.790.561.06
vs Stronger (14)0.500.930.560.670.401.40
vs Similar (16)0.560.940.401.000.640.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L10W21W01L12L00D12LH·TRI22/05A·PRI27/05H·PRI31/05H·KOP17/07A·BRA26/07H·MUR01/08A·ALU09/08H·CEL15/08A·OLI21/08H·MAR30/08← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.430.730.530.930.33
vs Stronger (3)0.671.331.002.000.000.00
vs Similar (16)0.750.440.570.430.890.44
vs Weaker (11)1.000.180.830.171.200.20
Clean sheet %67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MuraMura

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D11D12L00D13L12L11D01L01LA·PRI10/05H·MAR17/05A·RAD22/05A·CEL17/07H·OLI25/07A·NAF01/08H·RAD10/08A·BRI16/08H·KOP22/08A·BRA29/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.870.570.500.691.19
vs Stronger (14)0.290.710.330.330.201.40
vs Similar (16)0.941.001.000.800.911.09
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NaftaNafta

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D10W01L20W31W10W01L01L11DH·TRI22/05A·PRI27/05H·PRI31/05H·KOP17/07A·BRA26/07H·MUR01/08A·ALU09/08H·CEL15/08A·OLI21/08H·MAR30/08← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.531.330.730.730.33
vs Stronger (3)0.331.000.501.000.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.940.441.140.710.780.22
vs Weaker (11)1.360.551.830.670.800.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.9%-------
Under 6.599.7%-------
Home under 3.5 goals99.0%-------
Under 5.598.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.1%-------
Under 4.596.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals94.8%-------
Away under 2.5 goals92.1%-------
Away +2 handicap90.3%-------
Under 3.588.7%-------
Home +2 handicap85.5%-------
Home under 1.5 goals79.7%-------
Away under 1.5 goals73.8%-------
Under 2.572.3%-------
Draw or Away71.9%-------
Away +1 handicap71.9%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Mura's squad is €3m more valuable than Nafta's (€5m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Mura and Nafta have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura's midfield is €1m more valuable than Nafta's (€1m vs €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura's defence is €1m more valuable than Nafta's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
MUR wins
2
Draws
2
NAF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mura vs Nafta · H/A from MUR
DateH/AGameScore
01/08/26ANafta Vs MUR5-2
05/04/25ANafta Vs MUR4-2
02/02/25HMUR Vs Nafta0-0
28/09/24ANafta Vs MUR0-0
20/07/24HMUR Vs Nafta1-0

MuraMura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ABravo Vs MUR2-0
22/08/26HMUR Vs Koper0-1
16/08/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs MUR1-2
10/08/26HMUR Vs Radomlje1-3
01/08/26ANafta Vs MUR5-2
25/07/26HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana1-0
17/07/26ACelje Vs MUR2-2
22/05/26ARadomlje Vs MUR3-2
17/05/26HMUR Vs Maribor2-1
10/05/26APrimorje Vs MUR0-2

NaftaNafta

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HNAF Vs Maribor2-3
21/08/26AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs NAF1-0
15/08/26HNAF Vs Celje1-3
09/08/26AAluminij Vs NAF1-1
01/08/26HNAF Vs Mura5-2
26/07/26ABravo Vs NAF0-3
17/07/26HNAF Vs Koper0-2
31/05/26HNAF Vs Primorje1-0
27/05/26APrimorje Vs NAF0-0
22/05/26HNAF Vs Triglav1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.80
HomeLWWLL1.12
AwayLDLWL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%29%12%
AVG goals2.762.383.12
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded1.761.332.15
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet14%21%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Nafta
Nafta
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.90
HomeWLWLL1.92
AwayLDWDL1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%58%54%
AVG goals3.083.582.54
Over 1.5 %84%88%79%
Over 2.5 %48%62%33%
Over 3.5 %34%42%25%
Scored1.842.081.58
Conceded1.241.500.96
BTTS60%77%42%
Clean Sheet32%15%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MariborMaribor715
57%
2.1
135+8
2.6
86%
43%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.90.7
-
2KoperKoper712
43%
1.7
75+2
1.7
57%
14%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3231.00.7
-
3CeljeCelje611
50%
1.8
108+2
3.0
83%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7161.71.3
-
4BravoBravo711
43%
1.6
88+0
2.3
86%
43%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.1
-
5AluminijAluminij78
29%
1.1
88+0
2.3
57%
29%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.11.1
-
6Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje78
29%
1.1
1112-1
3.3
100%
57%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.7
-
7Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana78
29%
1.1
35-2
1.1
29%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6150.40.7
-
8NaftaNafta77
29%
1.0
1212+0
3.4
86%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.7
-
9MuraMura77
29%
1.0
814-6
3.1
71%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.12.0
-
10RadomljeRadomlje65
17%
0.8
710-3
2.8
83%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.7
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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