Defensive solidity dominates the outlook for this encounter. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 1.8 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28% chance. The most probable scoreline is 0-0, with a 17.4% probability, underscoring the cautious approach both sides are likely to take.
Mura, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Nafta on the road has a stronger offensive record of 1.67 goals per game and a solid 0.67 conceded. Recent form shows Mura struggling after two straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Bravo, whereas Nafta has also endured three consecutive losses, falling 2-3 to Maribor.
The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 28% for a home victory, 35% for a draw, and 37% for an away triumph. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Under 5.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 4.5 (96.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.8%), and Away under 2.5 goals (92.1%).
Mura| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.80 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.79 | 1.64 | 0.89 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.50 | 1.94 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.55 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
Nafta| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 0.97 | 2.07 | 1.27 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.69 | 0.88 | 1.71 | 1.14 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 2.36 | 0.73 | 2.67 | 0.83 | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
| Nafta goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 17% | 15% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 12% | 15% | 6.6% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Mura
Nafta
Mura| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (24) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Nafta| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Stronger (6) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| vs Weaker (18) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - |
| % under line | - | - | - | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | - | - |
Mura| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.79 | 0.56 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.56 | 0.67 | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.56 | 0.94 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.64 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Nafta| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.75 | 0.44 | 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.89 | 0.44 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+40pp vs league) | |||||
Mura| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Nafta| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.53 | 1.33 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.94 | 0.44 | 1.14 | 0.71 | 0.78 | 0.22 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 1.36 | 0.55 | 1.83 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+24pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 99.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 99.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 99.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 98.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 98.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 96.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 94.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 90.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 88.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 79.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 71.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 71.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 05/04/25 | A | 4-2 | |
| 02/02/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 28/09/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 20/07/24 | H | 1-0 |
Mura| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 16/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 17/07/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 22/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-2 |
Nafta| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 5-2 | |
| 26/07/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 17/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 31/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/05/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Maribor | 7 | 15 | 57% | 2.1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 2.6 | 86% | 43% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Koper | 7 | 12 | 43% | 1.7 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 1.7 | 57% | 14% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Celje | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 4 | Bravo | 7 | 11 | 43% | 1.6 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 2.3 | 86% | 43% | 14% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Aluminij | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 2.3 | 57% | 29% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 3.3 | 100% | 57% | 29% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 7 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 7 | 8 | 29% | 1.1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1.1 | 29% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Nafta | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 12 | 12 | +0 | 3.4 | 86% | 57% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 | Mura | 7 | 7 | 29% | 1.0 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3.1 | 71% | 57% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 | Radomlje | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | - |