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Mura vs Olimpija Ljubljana Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 1-0
Mura
Mura
Vs
30%
31%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Mura a 30% win probability against Olimpija Ljubljana in the Slovenia: 1. SNL on 2026-07-25, with 31% for the draw and 39% for Olimpija Ljubljana. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (80%), Over 2.5 cards (78%), Under 5.5 cards (76%).

Results analysis

Mura finished 1-0 against Olimpija Ljubljana (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 30% home win, 31% draw and 39% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (80%).

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Mura win✓ Hit
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

MuraMura

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D12L12L02L01L20W21W23L22DH·RAD21/03H·OLI04/04H·BRA11/04A·ALU16/04H·CEL19/04H·KOP03/05A·PRI10/05H·MAR17/05A·RAD22/05A·CEL17/07
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.671.071.271.132.07
vs Stronger (15)0.731.800.881.250.572.43
vs Similar (15)1.471.531.291.291.621.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W12L00D21W02L23L30W21W12L02LA·RAD14/03H·BRA21/03A·MUR04/04H·ALU11/04A·CEL15/04A·KOP25/04H·PRI02/05H·RAD17/05A·BRA23/05H·BRA18/07
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.201.531.071.201.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.201.401.751.000.831.67
vs Weaker (20)1.451.101.451.091.441.11
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
11.1%
1-0 ✓
9.2%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
5.5%
Mura goals ↓
Olimpija Ljubljana goals →
01234
011%11%7.8%3.3%1.0%
19.2%14%8.2%3.4%1.1%
25.5%6.9%4.3%1.8%0.6%
31.9%2.4%1.5%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.26
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
Mura is 0.66 points worse than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.58).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.25
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
Nafta
0.50
Mura is 0.39 goals worse than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.42).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.61
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Mura is 0.41 goals worse than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.21).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

MuraMura

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MuraMura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (26)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (28)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.2
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Celje
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.7%
Under 9.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.5%
Under 21.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MuraMura

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D02L01L02L01L10W10W12L10WH·RAD21/03H·OLI04/04H·BRA11/04A·ALU16/04H·CEL19/04H·KOP03/05A·PRI10/05H·MAR17/05A·RAD22/05A·CEL17/07
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.530.870.471.07
vs Stronger (15)0.401.130.501.000.291.29
vs Similar (15)0.600.800.570.710.620.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W00D00D01L02L10W10W10W01LA·RAD14/03H·BRA21/03A·MUR04/04H·ALU11/04A·CEL15/04A·KOP25/04H·PRI02/05H·RAD17/05A·BRA23/05H·BRA18/07
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.470.800.330.530.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.700.750.250.001.00
vs Weaker (20)0.850.350.820.360.890.33
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls86.1%--------
Under 3.579.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards78.0%--------
Under 5.5 cards76.4%--------
Over 21.5 fouls74.5%--------
Under 11.5 corners71.9%--------

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
0
MUR wins
2
Draws
6
OL wins

Head-to-head

Mura vs Olimpija Ljubljana · H/A from MUR
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/26HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-0
31/01/26AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MUR1-0
28/09/25HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-2
19/07/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MUR1-0
10/05/25HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana1-1
12/03/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MUR2-1
24/11/24HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-1
01/09/24AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MUR4-0

MuraMura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/07/26ACelje Vs MUR2-2
22/05/26ARadomlje Vs MUR3-2
17/05/26HMUR Vs Maribor2-1
10/05/26APrimorje Vs MUR0-2
03/05/26HMUR Vs Koper0-1
19/04/26HMUR Vs Celje0-2
16/04/26AAluminij Vs MUR2-1
11/04/26HMUR Vs Bravo1-2
04/04/26HMUR Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-0
21/03/26HMUR Vs Radomlje2-0

Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/07/26HOL Vs Bravo0-2
23/05/26ABravo Vs OL2-1
17/05/26HOL Vs Radomlje2-1
02/05/26HOL Vs Primorje3-0
25/04/26AKoper Vs OL3-2
15/04/26ACelje Vs OL2-0
11/04/26HOL Vs Aluminij2-1
04/04/26AMura Vs OL0-0
21/03/26HOL Vs Bravo1-2
14/03/26ARadomlje Vs OL1-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLD0.82
HomeDLLLW1.29
AwayLLWLD0.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%33%8%
AVG goals2.682.462.88
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %50%46%54%
Over 3.5 %24%21%27%
Scored1.021.210.85
Conceded1.661.252.04
BTTS50%54%46%
Clean Sheet14%21%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.44
HomeLWWWL1.62
AwayWDLLL1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.782.852.71
Over 1.5 %82%81%83%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.481.541.42
Conceded1.301.311.29
BTTS60%58%62%
Clean Sheet30%35%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1MariborMaribor59
40%
1.8
72+5
1.8
80%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.40.4
-
2CeljeCelje48
50%
2.0
74+3
2.8
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7161.81.0
-
3BravoBravo58
40%
1.6
55+0
2.0
80%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
4NaftaNafta57
40%
1.4
108+2
3.6
100%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
5MuraMura57
40%
1.4
811-3
3.8
80%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
6KoperKoper56
20%
1.2
55+0
2.0
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3231.01.0
-
7AluminijAluminij45
25%
1.2
43+1
1.8
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.8
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje55
20%
1.0
57-2
2.4
100%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
9RadomljeRadomlje54
20%
0.8
710-3
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
10Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana54
20%
0.8
25-3
1.4
40%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6150.41.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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