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Mura vs Radomlje Result & Analysis

Date: 19/08/2023
Time: 15:30
Final 0-2
Mura
Mura
Vs
46%
27%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Radomlje
Radomlje
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Mura are tipped to win, with a 46% chance of taking the match, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 27% chance of Radomlje triumphing. The model projects an average of 2.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that is 25% likely. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance. Mura, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, typically score 1.67 goals and concede 1.11, while Radomlje away from home against a comparable side average 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 82.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 82.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.1% (hit), and Under 11.5 corners at 74.0%. The recent form shows Mura struggling after two straight defeats, while Radomlje comes off a draw.

Results analysis

The 0-2 defeat of Mura by Radomlje was a clear upset, ending the home side’s run of two consecutive losses and extending the away team’s mixed form into a win after a recent draw. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was set at 46 percent, but the model was wrong as the match finished with an away victory. The only other selection made by the model was Over 1.5 goals, which hit at 79.1 percent. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away win, leaving the model’s favourite call incorrect while its single other pick proved accurate.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mura win✗ Miss
45.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radomlje win✓ Hit
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MuraMura

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L11D21W01L13L42W21W23L05L31WH·CEL10/04H·RAD15/04A·TAB22/04H·BRA29/04A·MAR02/05H·GOR13/05A·KOP20/05H·NK 22/07A·CEL30/07A·KOP14/08
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.371.671.331.131.40
vs Stronger (14)1.291.931.671.671.002.12
vs Similar (16)1.500.881.671.111.290.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D11D21W21W10W10W04L01L02LH·GOR08/04A·MUR15/04H·KOP22/04A·TAB30/04H·OLI03/05A·BRA14/05H·NK 20/05H·MAR23/07A·KOP29/07H·ALU12/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.570.811.500.931.64
vs Stronger (14)0.712.210.752.250.672.17
vs Similar (16)1.001.000.880.751.121.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.0%
No
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.2%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
5.9%
2-2
5.7%
Mura goals ↓
Radomlje goals →
01234
06.9%5.9%4.3%1.7%0.5%
18.2%13%7.0%2.9%0.9%
27.7%9.4%5.7%2.3%0.7%
34.2%5.1%3.1%1.3%0.4%
41.7%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Radomlje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Mura is 0.19 points better than Radomlje in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.92).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Mura is 0.17 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.92).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Mura is 0.17 goals worse than Radomlje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.58 vs 1.42).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MuraMura

For 5.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.3

🚩 Corners

2104549249125410677476323913621916141195A·KOPA·CELH·NK A·KOPH·GORA·MARH·BRAA·TABH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3

🟨 Cards

801111423233124133262265635338A·KOPA·CELH·NK A·KOPH·GORA·MARH·BRAA·TABH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 12.8 · Total 26.4

⚠️ Fouls

350121310151416111421141091116158139191425253025351927232233A·KOPA·CELH·NK A·KOPH·GORA·MARH·BRAA·TABH·CELA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

RadomljeRadomlje

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MuraMura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (43)10.79.911.52.93.42.426.326.826.0
vs Stronger (18)11.612.211.43.22.53.825.826.825.4
vs Similar (25)9.98.911.72.64.01.227.026.827.5
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line60%50%69%40%52%27%92%92%93%
% under line40%50%31%60%48%73%8%8%7%
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (39)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (18)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (21)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.7
Celje
9.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.6
Koper
9.3
Aluminij
9.2
Maribor
9.1
Bravo
8.9
NK Domzale
8.4

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.1
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Aluminij
4.5
Mura
4.4
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.1
Bravo
4.0

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.7
Aluminij
27.5
Bravo
26.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.6
Mura
26.3
Maribor
25.3
Celje
24.4
Koper
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.2%
Under 9.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
66.2%
Under 3.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
82.2%
Under 21.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MuraMura

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D00D00D12L12L01L21W02L10WH·CEL10/04H·RAD15/04A·TAB22/04H·BRA29/04A·MAR02/05H·GOR13/05A·KOP20/05H·NK 22/07A·CEL30/07A·KOP14/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.870.800.530.67
vs Stronger (14)0.641.001.000.830.381.12
vs Similar (16)0.750.500.780.780.710.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D11D01L01L00D00D02L01L02LH·GOR08/04A·MUR15/04H·KOP22/04A·TAB30/04H·OLI03/05A·BRA14/05H·NK 20/05H·MAR23/07A·KOP29/07H·ALU12/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.870.380.880.360.86
vs Stronger (14)0.361.210.381.250.331.17
vs Similar (16)0.380.560.380.500.380.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MuraMura

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D21W01L01L30W20W02L03L21WH·CEL10/04H·RAD15/04A·TAB22/04H·BRA29/04A·MAR02/05H·GOR13/05A·KOP20/05H·NK 22/07A·CEL30/07A·KOP14/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.630.800.530.600.73
vs Stronger (14)0.640.930.670.830.621.00
vs Similar (16)0.750.380.890.330.570.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D20W20W10W10W02L00D00DH·GOR08/04A·MUR15/04H·KOP22/04A·TAB30/04H·OLI03/05A·BRA14/05H·NK 20/05H·MAR23/07A·KOP29/07H·ALU12/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.440.620.570.79
vs Stronger (14)0.361.000.381.000.331.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.440.500.250.750.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls91.1%--------
Over 2.5 cards82.9%--------
Over 21.5 fouls82.2%--------
Over 1.579.1%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.0%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
MUR wins
3
Draws
0
RAD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mura vs Radomlje · H/A from MUR
DateH/AGameScore
15/04/23HMUR Vs Radomlje1-1
18/02/23ARadomlje Vs MUR0-0
16/10/22HMUR Vs Radomlje3-0
07/08/22ARadomlje Vs MUR1-1

MuraMura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/08/23AKoper Vs MUR1-3
30/07/23ACelje Vs MUR5-0
22/07/23HMUR Vs NK Domzale2-3
20/05/23AKoper Vs MUR1-2
13/05/23HMUR Vs Gorica4-2
02/05/23AMaribor Vs MUR3-1
29/04/23HMUR Vs Bravo0-1
22/04/23ATabor Sežana Vs MUR1-2
15/04/23HMUR Vs Radomlje1-1
10/04/23HMUR Vs Celje0-2

RadomljeRadomlje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/08/23HRAD Vs Aluminij0-2
29/07/23AKoper Vs RAD1-0
23/07/23HRAD Vs Maribor0-4
20/05/23HRAD Vs NK Domzale1-0
14/05/23ABravo Vs RAD0-1
03/05/23HRAD Vs Olimpija Ljubljana2-1
30/04/23ATabor Sežana Vs RAD1-2
22/04/23HRAD Vs Koper1-1
15/04/23AMura Vs RAD1-1
08/04/23HRAD Vs Gorica2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLW1.47
HomeLDLWL1.62
AwayWLWLW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %37%48%27%
AVG goals2.723.002.45
Over 1.5 %72%76%68%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %33%33%32%
Scored1.401.671.14
Conceded1.331.331.32
BTTS58%62%55%
Clean Sheet28%19%36%
Corners10.739.8611.50
Cards4.435.143.71
Radomlje
Radomlje
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLLL1.13
HomeDWWLL1.10
AwayDDWWL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%20%32%
AVG goals2.442.152.74
Over 1.5 %77%75%79%
Over 2.5 %44%30%58%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored0.900.801.00
Conceded1.541.351.74
BTTS51%45%58%
Clean Sheet21%25%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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