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Mura vs Radomlje Result & Analysis

Date: 21/03/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 2-0
Mura
Mura
Vs
46%
27%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Radomlje
Radomlje
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Mura are tipped to win, with a 46% chance of taking the points and a 27% chance of a draw versus Radomlje’s 28% chance of a win. The model expects 2.9 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Mura’s home form shows they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition, while Radomlje’s away record is 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded. The suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 83.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 79.6% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 77.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 71.1%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 70.3%. Mura’s recent run of LLWLL after two straight defeats and Radomlje’s DLWLD after a draw set the stage for a tightly contested match.

Results analysis

The model’s prediction proved accurate as Mura secured a 2-0 victory at home, extending their recent form after two straight defeats. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 46% probability and the model’s call was correct. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.6% chance, and it hit as the match produced two goals. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not reached, but the 2-0 result still matched the favoured outcome. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home side’s advantage and the model’s overall selections performed well.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Mura win✓ Hit
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Radomlje win✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MuraMura

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L13L01L20W03L15L03L31W03LA·PRI23/11H·MAR29/11A·RAD06/12A·OLI31/01A·BRA03/02H·ALU08/02A·CEL14/02A·KOP01/03H·PRI07/03A·MAR14/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.771.311.380.652.06
vs Stronger (14)0.642.071.171.670.252.38
vs Similar (16)1.191.501.431.141.001.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W12L31W21W13L22D21W22D13L12LA·BRA24/11A·OLI29/11H·MUR06/12H·ALU30/01A·CEL04/02A·KOP15/02H·PRI21/02A·MAR28/02H·BRA09/03H·OLI14/03
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.971.471.671.132.27
vs Stronger (14)1.072.501.201.801.002.89
vs Similar (16)1.501.501.601.601.331.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.7%
No
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.0%
2-0 ✓
7.5%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
0-1
5.8%
Mura goals ↓
Radomlje goals →
01234
06.7%5.8%4.3%1.8%0.6%
18.0%13%7.1%3.0%0.9%
27.5%9.4%5.8%2.4%0.8%
34.1%5.1%3.2%1.3%0.4%
41.7%2.1%1.3%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Radomlje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
NK Domzale
0.67
Primorje
0.64
Mura is 0.41 points worse than Radomlje in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
NK Domzale
0.94
Primorje
0.86
Nafta
0.50
Mura is 0.44 goals worse than Radomlje in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Primorje
2.08
NK Domzale
2.11
Mura is 0.24 goals better than Radomlje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

MuraMura

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

RadomljeRadomlje

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MuraMura

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (27)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (27)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.2
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Celje
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.3%
Under 21.5
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MuraMura

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L01L00D01L12L01L11D03LA·PRI23/11H·MAR29/11A·RAD06/12A·OLI31/01A·BRA03/02H·ALU08/02A·CEL14/02A·KOP01/03H·PRI07/03A·MAR14/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.930.770.920.290.94
vs Stronger (14)0.431.290.831.330.121.25
vs Similar (16)0.560.620.710.570.440.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L20W00D01L01L10W11D02L10WA·BRA24/11A·OLI29/11H·MUR06/12H·ALU30/01A·CEL04/02A·KOP15/02H·PRI21/02A·MAR28/02H·BRA09/03H·OLI14/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.830.400.730.530.93
vs Stronger (14)0.361.000.201.000.441.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.690.500.600.670.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MuraMura

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D00D20W02L03L02L20W00DA·PRI23/11H·MAR29/11A·RAD06/12A·OLI31/01A·BRA03/02H·ALU08/02A·CEL14/02A·KOP01/03H·PRI07/03A·MAR14/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.830.540.460.351.12
vs Stronger (14)0.210.790.330.330.121.12
vs Similar (16)0.620.880.710.570.561.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RadomljeRadomlje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D11D21W12L21W11D11D11D02LA·BRA24/11A·OLI29/11H·MUR06/12H·ALU30/01A·CEL04/02A·KOP15/02H·PRI21/02A·MAR28/02H·BRA09/03H·OLI14/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.131.070.930.601.33
vs Stronger (14)0.711.501.000.800.561.89
vs Similar (16)0.940.811.101.000.670.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls83.2%--------
Over 1.579.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards77.7%--------
Under 5.5 cards76.9%--------
Under 11.5 corners71.1%--------
Over 21.5 fouls70.3%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar squad value (both €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
MUR wins
2
Draws
2
RAD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Mura vs Radomlje · H/A from MUR
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/25ARadomlje Vs MUR3-1
21/09/25HMUR Vs Radomlje0-0
03/05/25ARadomlje Vs MUR2-0
08/03/25HMUR Vs Radomlje2-0
10/11/24ARadomlje Vs MUR2-4
24/08/24HMUR Vs Radomlje1-0
20/04/24ARadomlje Vs MUR1-2
25/02/24HMUR Vs Radomlje0-0

MuraMura

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26AMaribor Vs MUR3-0
07/03/26HMUR Vs Primorje3-1
01/03/26AKoper Vs MUR3-0
14/02/26ACelje Vs MUR5-1
08/02/26HMUR Vs Aluminij0-3
03/02/26ABravo Vs MUR0-2
31/01/26AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MUR1-0
06/12/25ARadomlje Vs MUR3-1
29/11/25HMUR Vs Maribor0-1
23/11/25APrimorje Vs MUR1-0

RadomljeRadomlje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26HRAD Vs Olimpija Ljubljana1-2
09/03/26HRAD Vs Bravo1-3
28/02/26AMaribor Vs RAD2-2
21/02/26HRAD Vs Primorje2-1
15/02/26AKoper Vs RAD2-2
04/02/26ACelje Vs RAD3-1
30/01/26HRAD Vs Aluminij2-1
06/12/25HRAD Vs Mura3-1
29/11/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs RAD2-1
24/11/25ABravo Vs RAD0-4

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Mura
Mura
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL0.78
HomeWWLLW1.17
AwayLWLLL0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%26%11%
AVG goals2.682.392.93
Over 1.5 %76%78%74%
Over 2.5 %48%43%52%
Over 3.5 %26%26%26%
Scored1.001.130.89
Conceded1.681.262.04
BTTS50%57%44%
Clean Sheet14%22%7%
Corners---
Cards---
Radomlje
Radomlje
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLL1.14
HomeWWWLL1.44
AwayWLLDD0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%44%20%
AVG goals3.323.323.32
Over 1.5 %90%92%88%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %42%40%44%
Scored1.301.521.08
Conceded2.021.802.24
BTTS62%64%60%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3474
68%
2.2
8532+53
3.4
85%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7162.50.9
-
2KoperKoper3467
59%
2.0
7143+28
3.4
82%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.11.3
-
3BravoBravo3462
56%
1.8
6251+11
3.3
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.5
-
4MariborMaribor3353
45%
1.6
5740+17
2.9
82%
58%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.2
-
5Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3352
45%
1.6
4740+7
2.6
79%
58%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6151.41.2
-
6RadomljeRadomlje3445
38%
1.3
5063-13
3.3
97%
79%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.9
-
7AluminijAluminij3436
29%
1.1
4261-19
3.0
85%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.8
-
8MuraMura3431
24%
0.9
3555-20
2.6
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
9PrimorjePrimorje3623
17%
0.6
3175-44
2.9
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.1
-
10NK DomzaleNK Domzale1812
17%
0.7
1738-21
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11NaftaNafta24
50%
2.0
10+1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.50.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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