Mura is expected to emerge victorious, but Radomlje's recent form suggests they may be able to cause an upset. Radomlje is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-2 to Bravo, and Mura also suffered a loss in their last match, a 2-5 defeat to Nafta. However, Mura has a slight edge at home, with a 42% chance of winning, compared to Radomlje's 29% chance of an away win. The draw is also a possibility, with a 28% probability. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.4%. Mura has been scoring and conceding an average of 1.25 goals at home, while Radomlje has been scoring 1.56 goals and conceding 1.22 goals away from home against similar opponents. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.8% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 72% probability, and a 6% edge. Mura has a 42% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Mura's winning streak came to an abrupt end as they fell to a 1-3 defeat at the hands of Radomlje. The away side's victory extends their recent run of mixed results, coming off the back of a win. This result marks a surprise upset, as the home side, Mura, were the pre-match favourite with a 42% chance of winning. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of a home win had a 42% probability. In contrast, the model suggested an Over 1.5 total goals, which hit with a 75.9% probability. The model also suggested an Under 3.5 total goals, which missed with a 72% probability.
Advertisement
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Mura winâ Miss
42.4%
Avg Implied 46.8% · @ 1.95
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.03
Superbet
2.02
888Sport
2.00
William Hil
2.00
SBO
1.99
Drawâ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.59
Radomlje winâ Hit
29.4%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.42
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.80
1xBet
3.56
Betano
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.45
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.70
1.00
1.13
1.20
2.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.73
1.67
0.89
1.11
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (15)
1.47
1.73
1.17
1.17
1.67
2.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.73
1.40
1.87
1.53
1.60
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.07
1.12
2.00
1.50
2.17
vs Similar (16)
1.62
1.44
1.71
1.71
1.56
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.21-0.7%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 3.93+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.18
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.71-4.5%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 2.04+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.08
SBO
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.0%
@ 2.72-5.9%
Under 3.5
72.0%
@ 1.40+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
888Sport
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.0%
@ 1.61-2.2%
No
45.0%
@ 2.16+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
No
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.20
888Sport
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Betano
2.18
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.38+6.5%
2-1
9.0%@ 7.81+3.4%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.94+3.4%
0-0
8.1%@ 11.33+4.2%
2-0
7.5%@ 9.47+2.9%
1-2
7.3%@ 10.70+3.2%
0-1
7.0%@ 10.87+3.0%
2-2
5.4%@ 11.84+1.7%
Mura goals ↓
Radomlje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.0%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.0%
13%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.0%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.4%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Mura goals (down), columns = Radomlje goals (across).
Advertisement
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Mura is 0.17 points better than Radomlje in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Mura is 0.02 goals worse than Radomlje in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.17).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Mura is 0.33 goals worse than Radomlje in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Mura
ðĐ Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
ðĻ Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
â ïļ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Radomlje
ðĐ Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
ðĻ Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
â ïļ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.2
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Celje
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.4%
@ 2.08+8.0%
Under 9.5
47.6%
@ 1.66-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.7%
Under 3.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.8%
Under 21.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.47
0.80
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
1.07
0.56
0.89
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.87
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.07
0.38
1.25
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.44
0.71
0.71
0.89
0.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.73
0.53
0.33
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.60
0.33
0.22
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.87
0.83
0.50
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Radomlje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Radomlje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.87
0.87
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.00
0.75
0.75
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.81
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Radomlje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.7%
â Hit
Under 3.5
72.0%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.44
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
+5.9%
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.3%
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
-
-6.3%
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar squad value (both €5m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar attack value (both €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Mura and Radomlje have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →