The contest between MVV and Roda is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win chances sit at 35% and 36%, while a draw is 29%. The expected goal tally is 2.6, and the most likely total is two goals, occurring 26% of the time. The single score the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.7% chance. MVV, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. Roda, on the road versus a similar side, averages 1.71 goals scored and only one conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.2%, edge 4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7%, edge 5%), Under 6.5 (97.4%, edge 3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5%, edge 5%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%, edge 4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5%, edge 6%), and Under 5.5 (93.3%, edge 4%). Both sides have recently shown resilience, with MVV on a four-game winning streak and Roda fresh from a draw. The match promises a tight, low-scoring affair, with the away side slightly ahead in the model’s eyes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
MVV win
33.6%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.17
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.35
Bet365
3.30
1xBet
3.29
Marathonbet
3.28
Dafabet
3.25
Draw
28.5%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.43
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Roda win
37.8%
Avg Implied 43.7% · @ 2.12
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.20
Dafabet
2.17
Unibet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
MVV
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.97
1.33
1.80
1.00
2.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
2.17
2.00
2.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.92
1.17
1.58
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.33
1.13
1.60
1.60
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.44
1.22
1.15
1.46
1.71
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.5%
@ 1.20-1.9%
Under 1.5
24.5%
@ 4.09+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Pinnacle
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.68-6.3%
Under 2.5
50.6%
@ 2.11+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Under
Betfair
2.20
Unibet
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.5%
@ 2.63-7.7%
Under 3.5
72.5%
@ 1.43+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
10Bet
2.70
Superbet
2.62
Betano
2.62
Under
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Both teams to score
Yes
55.1%
@ 1.56-4.3%
No
44.9%
@ 2.28+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.60
Betfair
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
Unibet
2.33
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%@ 6.43+6.7%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.16+3.0%
0-1
8.4%@ 8.74+3.3%
0-0
8.3%@ 11.55+4.4%
2-1
7.9%@ 10.24+3.6%
1-0
7.8%@ 10.89+3.7%
0-2
6.6%@ 10.98+2.5%
2-0
5.8%@ 16.43+3.1%
MVV goals ↓
Roda goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
8.4%
6.6%
3.0%
1.0%
1
7.8%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.8%
7.9%
5.4%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.5%
3.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = MVV goals (down), columns = Roda goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
MVV is 0.43 points worse than Roda in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
MVV is 0.45 goals worse than Roda in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
MVV is 0.52 goals worse than Roda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
MVV is 8.5 percentage points worse than Roda in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
MVV
For 3.5 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Roda
For 4.1 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 16.4 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MVV
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.8
10.6
2.9
3.0
2.9
22.5
22.2
22.7
vs Stronger (8)
9.8
7.7
11.0
2.1
2.3
2.0
19.9
20.7
19.4
vs Similar (42)
10.3
10.1
10.5
3.1
3.0
3.1
23.0
22.5
23.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
52%
72%
34%
36%
32%
58%
64%
52%
% under line
38%
48%
28%
66%
64%
68%
42%
36%
48%
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
11.0
9.0
2.8
3.3
2.4
24.7
24.0
25.6
vs Stronger (4)
12.0
10.0
14.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
21.2
20.0
22.5
vs Similar (46)
9.9
11.1
8.5
2.8
3.3
2.3
25.1
24.3
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
67%
43%
36%
40%
32%
72%
62%
83%
% under line
45%
33%
57%
64%
60%
68%
28%
38%
17%
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.0%
@ 1.69-4.8%
Under 9.5
50.0%
@ 2.05+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.58
Under
Unibet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
43.8%
Under 3.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.3%
Under 21.5
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
MVV or Draw
57.5%
Avg Implied 56.3% · @ 1.66
Edge
+1.3%
34%
29%
38%
covers MVV + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
William Hil
1.67
MVV or Roda
72.8%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.7%
34%
29%
38%
covers MVV + Roda
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Roda
69.7%
Avg Implied 70.3% · @ 1.33
Edge
-0.6%
34%
29%
38%
covers Draw + Roda
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Unibet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
MVV over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
@ 1.29+0.6%
Under
27.9%
@ 3.25-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Under
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Betfair
3.25
MVV over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
@ 2.46-1.3%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.50+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.53
Betfair
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Under
Unibet
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.50
MVV over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
@ 5.59-2.8%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Under
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
MVV over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
@ 13.75-2.8%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.02+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Roda over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
@ 1.17-0.1%
Under
21.3%
@ 4.37+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
BetVictor
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Roda over/under 1.5
Over
45.8%
@ 1.90-3.0%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.81+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.93
BetVictor
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Under
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Roda over/under 2.5
Over
20.3%
@ 3.83-3.8%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.22+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Roda over/under 3.5
Over
7.2%
@ 8.78-3.5%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.05+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.20
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to MVV, so a minus line means MVV give that many goals of a start and Roda receive them. At -1, MVV must win by two or more to land; a one-goal MVV win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (MVV)
MVV -2
4.6%
@ 15.00-1.5%
Draw -2
8.9%
@ 9.20-1.0%
Roda +2
86.5%
@ 1.09+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.10
Away
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Handicap -1 (MVV)
MVV -1
13.5%
@ 6.25-0.9%
Draw -1
16.8%
@ 4.89-1.6%
Roda +1
69.7%
@ 1.34+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Handicap +1 (MVV)
MVV +1
57.5%
@ 1.66+3.9%
Draw +1
20.6%
@ 3.92-2.1%
Roda -1
21.9%
@ 3.76-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Away
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Handicap +2 (MVV)
MVV +2
78.1%
@ 1.22+4.3%
Draw +2
13.1%
@ 5.98-1.9%
Roda -2
8.8%
@ 8.00-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.75
Away
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
MVV
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
1.33
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.88
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.67
0.62
0.69
0.71
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.5%
@ 1.32+0.8%
Under 0.5
28.5%
@ 3.18-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.3%
@ 2.44-3.8%
Under 1.5
65.7%
@ 1.50+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.47
1xBet
2.47
Under
Unibet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 5.89-1.8%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.10+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
MVV over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.1%
@ 2.11+2.0%
Under
53.9%
@ 1.66-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Under
Unibet
1.74
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
MVV over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.2%
@ 6.66-1.7%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.08+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
6.60
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
MVV over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 20.50-3.1%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Roda over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.7%
@ 1.79-4.0%
Under
52.3%
@ 1.92+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Under
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.91
Roda over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.5%
@ 4.98-5.1%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.14+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Roda over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
@ 13.58-4.6%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
MVV
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.93
1.00
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.33
1.33
1.33
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (24)
0.67
1.04
0.83
0.92
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Roda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Roda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
0.60
0.87
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.56
0.54
0.77
1.00
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (MVV) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.9%
@ 1.18+0.5%
Under 0.5
21.1%
@ 4.28-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
Superbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.7%
@ 1.87-2.9%
Under 1.5
53.3%
@ 1.84+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.3%
@ 3.68-6.9%
Under 2.5
81.7%
@ 1.24+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.60
Betano
3.60
Under
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
MVV over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.8%
@ 1.77-2.5%
Under
50.2%
@ 1.94+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
MVV over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.9%
@ 4.82-4.3%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.15+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
4.85
Betano
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
MVV over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.4%
@ 12.75-4.0%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Roda over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.9%
@ 1.55-1.8%
Under
42.1%
@ 2.31+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Roda over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.7%
@ 3.61-5.9%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.24+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Roda over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.7%
@ 9.38-5.2%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.03+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.2%
Under 5.5
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+3.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
92.8%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+3.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.08
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.7%
Under 5.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.14
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
86.2%
1.11
Betfair
1.13
Betano
1.13
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+2.8%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+4.3%
Under 4.5
84.3%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
+3.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+6.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+5.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
79.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+3.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+0.5%
Away over 0.5 goals
78.7%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-0.1%
Home +2 handicap
78.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
Unibet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+4.3%
Over 1.5
75.5%
1.20
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-1.9%
Under 4.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.4%
1.41
Unibet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.32
-
-
-
+8.1%
Home or Away
72.8%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-0.7%
Under 3.5
72.5%
1.43
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
+7.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
1.29
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+0.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.5%
1.32
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+0.8%
Over 21.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
MVV
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Dumont50%
Jael Pawaridihadjo33%
Noa el Hamdaoui33%
Stan Van Dessel25%
Elias Sierra25%
Lennerd Daneels0%
Delano Asante0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Finn Dicke0%
Milan Hofland0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lennerd Daneels25%
Delano Asante25%
Milan Hofland25%
Sil van der Wegen25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Olivier Dumont0%
Finn Dicke0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Noa el Hamdaoui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lennerd Daneels25%
Delano Asante25%
Olivier Dumont25%
Finn Dicke25%
Milan Hofland25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Noa el Hamdaoui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Noa el Hamdaoui33%
Lennerd Daneels25%
Olivier Dumont25%
Stan Van Dessel0%
Delano Asante0%
Elias Sierra0%
Hugo Wentges0%
Finn Dicke0%
Milan Hofland0%
Sil van der Wegen0%
Jael Pawaridihadjo0%
Roda
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marco Tol50%
Joshua Nisbet25%
Anthony van den Hurk25%
Lucas Beerten25%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Jerome Deom0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Anthony van den Hurk50%
Jeremiah Mensah33%
Lucas Beerten25%
Koen Jansen25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mitchell Paulissen50%
Dyon Dorenbosch25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Anthony van den Hurk0%
Joey Sleegers0%
Lucas Beerten0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anthony van den Hurk50%
Joey Sleegers33%
Lucas Beerten25%
Joshua Nisbet0%
Mitchell Paulissen0%
Marco Tol0%
Jerome Deom0%
Jay Kruiver0%
Justin Treichel0%
Koen Jansen0%
Dyon Dorenbosch0%
Xander van den Berg0%
Bram Marsman0%
Jeremiah Mensah0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
MVV's squad is €3m less valuable than Roda's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
MVV's attack is €3m less valuable than Roda's (€1m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
MVV and Roda have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
MVV and Roda have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht