NAC Breda is the favourite to win this match against Jong Ajax, with a 54% chance of victory, according to the model's analysis. The match is likely to be a closely contested affair, with a 26% chance of a draw. Jong Ajax has a 20% chance of winning. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%.
NAC Breda has a strong home record, scoring an average of 0.57 goals per game at home, while conceding 1 goal on average. Jong Ajax has a decent away record, scoring 1 goal on average away from home, while conceding 2 goals.
The model suggests a Home or Draw selection with an 82.6% probability, an Over 1.5 selection with a 77.9% probability, an Over 21.5 fouls selection with a 75.5% probability, and a Home or Away selection with a 75.1% probability. The home win percentage is 54%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 20%.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as NAC Breda secured a 3-2 win over Jong Ajax, extending their recent winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 52 % probability and the model’s call was correct. The final score matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. Every suggested selection from the model hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (97.9 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.6 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.3 %), and Under 5.5 (94.1 %). Each probability was expressed as a percentage and no other teams or scores were mentioned.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
NAC Breda win✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.25
Edge
-21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Dafabet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 16.3% · @ 5.66
Edge
+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.50
Dafabet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Jong Ajax win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 9.6% · @ 9.63
Edge
+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
11.18
10Bet
11.00
Betano
10.25
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
NAC Breda
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
1.12
1.50
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
1.56
2.22
1.50
2.17
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.50
0.90
1.10
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.97
1.53
1.87
1.07
2.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.19
2.04
1.31
1.92
1.08
2.15
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.50
3.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.6%
@ 1.07-6.2%
Under 1.5
19.4%
@ 7.01+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.31-14.4%
Under 2.5
43.2%
@ 3.23+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
888Sport
3.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.4%
@ 1.80-17.7%
Under 3.5
65.6%
@ 1.96+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.85
10Bet
1.83
888Sport
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.1%
@ 1.60+0.3%
No
41.9%
@ 2.19-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
No
William Hil
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%@ 11.38+7.9%
2-1
9.8%@ 8.50+4.5%
2-0
8.6%@ 8.34+3.2%
1-0
8.4%@ 10.78+4.2%
0-0
6.3%@ 23.28+4.3%
1-2
6.1%@ 25.29+4.3%
3-1
5.9%@ 9.14+1.0%
2-2
5.6%@ 15.97+2.7%
NAC Breda goals ↓
Jong Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.8%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
1
8.4%
12%
6.1%
2.3%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.8%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.2%
5.9%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.4%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = NAC Breda goals (down), columns = Jong Ajax goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
NAC Breda is 0.58 points better than Jong Ajax in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
NAC Breda is 0.39 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
NAC Breda is 0.45 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
NAC Breda
For 7.7 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 13.6 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Ajax
For 4.2 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NAC Breda
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
9.9
3.6
4.0
3.2
22.9
22.5
23.3
vs Stronger (19)
9.9
10.4
9.5
3.8
3.6
3.9
23.4
21.1
25.0
vs Similar (30)
9.8
9.6
10.2
3.6
4.2
2.8
22.6
23.2
21.8
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
-
11.0
2.0
-
2.0
23.0
-
23.0
% over line
52%
62%
42%
46%
58%
33%
62%
58%
67%
% under line
48%
38%
58%
54%
42%
67%
38%
42%
33%
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.3
3.6
3.7
3.4
25.0
25.7
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.4
10.5
10.3
3.5
3.7
3.4
24.8
25.5
24.1
vs Weaker (6)
11.3
11.8
10.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.8
26.8
27.0
% over line
64%
56%
72%
54%
64%
44%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
36%
44%
28%
46%
36%
56%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.9
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.8
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.7
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
22.9
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
De Graafschap
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Under
Betano
2.65
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.53
Unibet
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
NAC Breda or Draw✓ Hit
82.6%
Avg Implied 89.9% · @ 1.05
Edge
-7.4%
52%
25%
23%
covers NAC Breda + Draw
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
NAC Breda or Jong Ajax✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 84.4% · @ 1.12
Edge
-9.3%
52%
25%
23%
covers NAC Breda + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw or Jong Ajax✗ Miss
42.4%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.67
Edge
+16.7%
52%
25%
23%
covers Draw + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.00
10Bet
3.95
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.7%
@ 1.03-7.9%
Under
16.3%
@ 11.29+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Under
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
13.00
1xBet
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
NAC Breda over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.1%
@ 1.22-21.7%
Under
45.9%
@ 3.83+21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.21
BetVictor
4.10
888Sport
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.85
NAC Breda over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
27.3%
@ 1.73-26.4%
Under
72.7%
@ 2.01+26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
888Sport
1.75
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
NAC Breda over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 2.82-21.8%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.38+21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.91
888Sport
2.90
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Under
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
59.7%
@ 1.54-0.4%
Under
40.3%
@ 2.33+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Under
888Sport
2.40
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.35
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.1%
@ 3.66-2.2%
Under
76.9%
@ 1.24+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Under
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 10.36-2.7%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.04+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Jong Ajax over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 34.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
27.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to NAC Breda, so a minus line means NAC Breda give that many goals of a start and Jong Ajax receive them. At -1, NAC Breda must win by two or more to land; a one-goal NAC Breda win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (NAC Breda)Actual: Jong Ajax
NAC Breda -2
15.7%
@ 2.50-19.9%
Draw -2
18.1%
@ 4.10-3.6%
Jong Ajax +2
66.2%
@ 2.09+23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.60
10Bet
2.50
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
10Bet
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.07
Handicap -1 (NAC Breda)Actual: Draw
NAC Breda -1
33.8%
@ 1.65-20.5%
Draw -1
23.8%
@ 4.20+2.4%
Jong Ajax +1
42.4%
@ 3.68+18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Draw
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Unibet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.52
Handicap +1 (NAC Breda)Actual: NAC Breda
NAC Breda +1
82.6%
@ 1.05-7.5%
Draw +1
11.4%
@ 15.00+5.1%
Jong Ajax -1
6.1%
@ 26.00+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
Handicap +2 (NAC Breda)Actual: NAC Breda
NAC Breda +2
93.9%
Draw +2
4.5%
Jong Ajax -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
NAC Breda
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.56
0.94
0.21
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.33
0.83
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.75
0.40
0.60
0.10
0.90
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.67
0.80
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.92
0.62
0.92
0.38
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.0%
@ 1.18-10.4%
Under 0.5
32.0%
@ 4.31+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
William Hil
4.60
BetVictor
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.7%
@ 1.87-18.2%
Under 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.86+18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.88
Under
SBO
1.94
10Bet
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 3.74-15.3%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.23+15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Betano
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
Under
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.3%
@ 1.31-20.3%
Under
49.7%
@ 3.15+20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Under
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.20
Unibet
3.10
Betano
2.95
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.4%
@ 2.47-21.1%
Under
83.6%
@ 1.49+21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Marathonbet
2.52
Pinnacle
2.51
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.46
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 5.53-14.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.11+14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.70
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Under
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.0%
@ 2.77+3.5%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.40-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.04
Pinnacle
3.00
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Under
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.39
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 10.11-0.4%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.03+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.50
Betano
9.50
10Bet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 40.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
NAC Breda
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.56
0.56
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
0.89
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
0.87
1.07
0.73
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
1.12
0.69
1.00
0.69
1.23
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (NAC Breda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.6%
Under 0.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.4%
Under 1.5
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.3%
Under 2.5
83.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
NAC Breda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NAC Breda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.07
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.11
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.09
-
+14.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.1%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Bet365
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+14.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.23
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
+15.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
86.0%
1.40
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
+19.9%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
83.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
82.6%
1.05
BetVictor
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
-7.4%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.6%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.07
-6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
76.9%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.1%
1.12
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
Betano
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-9.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
NAC Breda
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Gladon50%
Moussa Soumano50%
Pepijn Reulen50%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Mats Seuntjens0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jan Van den Bergh50%
Fredrik Jensen50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Maximilien Balard33%
Michael Verrips25%
Paul Gladon25%
Mohamed Nassoh25%
Pepijn Reulen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Rio Hillen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Seuntjens33%
Jannes Van Hecke33%
Boyd Lucassen25%
Leo Greiml0%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Rio Hillen0%
Paul Gladon0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Charles-Andreas Brym0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Gladon50%
Mats Seuntjens33%
Leo Greiml25%
Rio Hillen25%
Charles-Andreas Brym25%
Moussa Soumano25%
Jan Van den Bergh0%
Michael Verrips0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Jannes Van Hecke0%
Boyd Lucassen0%
Mohamed Nassoh0%
Maximilien Balard0%
Imran Nazih0%
Cherrion Valerius0%
Pepijn Reulen0%
Jong Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre Ünüvar80%
Diego Pugno60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Jano Monserrate0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Levi Acheampong0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Pugno40%
Jano Monserrate40%
Marvyn Muzungu40%
Jinairo Johnson33%
Avery Appiah25%
Pharrel Nash20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levi Acheampong40%
Mohamed Abdalla25%
Diego Pugno20%
Jano Monserrate20%
Pharrel Nash20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emre Ünüvar60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Jano Monserrate20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Diego Pugno0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
NAC Breda's squad is €9m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€10m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
NAC Breda and Jong Ajax have a similar attack value (both €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
NAC Breda's midfield is €1m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
NAC Breda's defence is €7m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€4m vs €12m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht