Nafta’s recent slump of three straight defeats is tempered by a solid home form, averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against teams of similar strength. Aluminij, after a defeat, has struggled on the road, averaging only 1.08 goals scored while conceding 1.92. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an average of 3.4 goals, most likely 3 in total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% chance. The favourite outcome is a home win, with a 42% chance, followed by a 25% draw and a 33% away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Under 6.5 (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.3%), Under 5.5 (87.5%), Over 1.5 goals (85.9%), Over 19.5 fouls (84.1%) and Home +2 handicap (83.5%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nafta win
43.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aluminij win
31.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nafta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.97
2.07
1.27
1.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
0.88
1.71
1.14
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.73
2.67
0.83
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.73
1.12
1.38
1.00
2.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.62
1.14
1.36
1.08
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.4%
Under 2.5
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.9%
No
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
1-0
5.3%
0-0
4.4%
Nafta goals ↓
Aluminij goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
4.3%
4.1%
2.1%
0.8%
1
5.3%
11%
7.5%
3.8%
1.5%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.8%
3.5%
1.3%
3
3.5%
5.4%
4.2%
2.1%
0.8%
4
1.6%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Aluminij goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Nafta is 0.14 points worse than Aluminij in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Nafta is 0.57 goals better than Aluminij in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Nafta is 0.57 goals worse than Aluminij in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nafta
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nafta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.5%
Under 9.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.1%
Under 3.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.6%
Under 21.5
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nafta or Draw
68.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Nafta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta or Aluminij
75.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Nafta + Aluminij
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aluminij
56.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
24%
32%
covers Draw + Aluminij
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nafta over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nafta, so a minus line means Nafta give that many goals of a start and Aluminij receive them. At -1, Nafta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nafta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nafta)
Nafta -2
10.9%
Draw -2
13.5%
Aluminij +2
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nafta)
Nafta -1
24.4%
Draw -1
19.5%
Aluminij +1
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nafta)
Nafta +1
68.4%
Draw +1
16.2%
Aluminij -1
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nafta)
Nafta +2
84.6%
Draw +2
9.5%
Aluminij -2
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nafta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
0.57
0.43
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.18
0.83
0.17
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.44
0.75
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.81
0.50
0.79
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nafta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.33
0.73
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.44
1.14
0.71
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.55
1.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.69
0.62
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.81
0.64
0.57
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Nafta's squad is €2m less valuable than Aluminij's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Nafta and Aluminij have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Nafta and Aluminij have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Nafta and Aluminij have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Mura
Radomlje