Nafta’s recent slump of three straight defeats and a 2-3 loss to Maribor suggests a vulnerable defense, while Bravo’s recent win and a 2-0 victory over Mura show an attacking edge. The model predicts an away win with a 48% chance, a draw 24%, and a home win 28%. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely score is 1-1 at 10%. Nafta averages 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Bravo averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.64 conceded on the road versus similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.4%), Under 6.5 (93.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Over 1.5 (87.2%), Away +2 handicap (86.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (86.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.0%) and Under 5.5 (85.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nafta win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bravo win
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nafta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.97
2.07
1.27
1.67
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.33
1.50
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
0.88
1.71
1.14
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
2.36
0.73
2.67
0.83
2.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.43
1.36
1.50
1.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.56
1.46
1.46
1.50
1.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
68.2%
No
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
5.9%
0-1
5.1%
2-3
4.5%
Nafta goals ↓
Bravo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
5.1%
5.9%
3.8%
1.9%
1
3.8%
10%
9.0%
5.9%
2.9%
2
3.6%
7.0%
6.9%
4.5%
2.2%
3
1.8%
3.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.1%
4
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Bravo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Nafta is 0.57 points worse than Bravo in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.57).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Nafta is 0.57 goals better than Bravo in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Nafta is 0.57 goals worse than Bravo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nafta
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Bravo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nafta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.6%
Under 9.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.8%
Under 3.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.0%
Under 21.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Nafta or Draw
52.9%
Avg Implied -
29%
24%
47%
covers Nafta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nafta or Bravo
76.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
24%
47%
covers Nafta + Bravo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bravo
70.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
24%
47%
covers Draw + Bravo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Nafta over/under 0.5
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5
Over
58.3%
Under
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5
Over
31.3%
Under
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 3.5
Over
13.6%
Under
86.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Nafta, so a minus line means Nafta give that many goals of a start and Bravo receive them. At -1, Nafta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Nafta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Nafta)
Nafta -2
5.3%
Draw -2
8.7%
Bravo +2
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Nafta)
Nafta -1
14.1%
Draw -1
15.2%
Bravo +1
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Nafta)
Nafta +1
52.9%
Draw +1
19.8%
Bravo -1
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Nafta)
Nafta +2
72.8%
Draw +2
14.4%
Bravo -2
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nafta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
0.57
0.43
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.18
0.83
0.17
1.20
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.57
0.64
0.75
0.81
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.81
0.54
0.69
0.64
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nafta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.33
0.73
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.44
1.14
0.71
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.55
1.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bravo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.86
0.71
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.74
0.92
0.77
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Nafta's squad is €2m less valuable than Bravo's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Nafta and Bravo have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Nafta's midfield is €1m less valuable than Bravo's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Nafta and Bravo have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →