Celje is the clear favourite to win this match, with a model-picked away win probability of 62%. The model's rating is largely due to Nafta's struggles at home against similar-strength opponents, averaging 1.2 goals scored and conceded. Celje, on the other hand, has shown a slight improvement in away form, averaging 1.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded against similar opponents.
The expected total goals are 3.6, with the most likely total being 3 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favour of Celje, with a probability of 9.5%. Nafta's recent form has seen them on a 2-game winning run at home, but this match is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with the model selecting Over 1.5 goals with a probability of 87.9%.
The probabilities for the match outcome are: Nafta win 18%, draw 21%, and Celje win 62%. The model's selections are Over 1.5 goals with 87.9% probability, and the home win percentage is 18%, the draw percentage is 21%, and the away win percentage is 62%.
Results analysis
Nafta's loss extends their recent form woes, having come off a defeat and now suffering another setback. The final score was 1-3 in favour of the visitors. The model's selection, an Away win, was correct, given the pre-match probability of 64%. The model's call was a shrewd one, considering the away side's impressive recent form, having been on a 3-game winning run. The model's selection largely came in, with the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hitting, boasting a pre-match probability of 88.1%. The model's other selections, however, did not quite materialize, as the most likely total goals of 3 did not occur.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Nafta win✗ Miss
15.9%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.53
Edge
-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Dafabet
3.65
1xBet
3.58
Betano
3.55
Draw✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.68
Edge
-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.98
Dafabet
3.85
Betfair
3.80
10Bet
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Celje win✓ Hit
64.4%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.83
Edge
+14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.88
Dafabet
1.87
888Sport
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Nafta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.80
2.40
1.00
1.80
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.76
0.88
1.88
1.12
1.67
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
2.54
0.69
3.00
0.86
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.30
2.24
1.12
1.85
1.54
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.60
1.47
1.50
0.75
1.71
2.29
vs Weaker (13)
2.77
1.00
3.25
1.12
2.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.1%
@ 1.14+6.4%
Under 1.5
11.9%
@ 5.07-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.25
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
5.05
Marathonbet
5.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
69.6%
@ 1.50+8.0%
Under 2.5
30.4%
@ 2.41-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
10Bet
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
10Bet
2.50
Betano
2.45
888Sport
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.3%
@ 2.25+7.0%
Under 3.5
51.7%
@ 1.58-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.31
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Under
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
888Sport
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.5%
@ 1.47+0.9%
No
36.5%
@ 2.46-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.52
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
No
Betfair
2.63
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%@ 7.69+3.7%
1-1
8.6%@ 7.17+2.4%
0-2
8.1%@ 10.26+3.8%
1-3 ✓
7.7%@ 11.56+3.8%
0-3
6.6%@ 15.70+3.7%
0-1
5.9%@ 9.62+1.3%
2-2
5.5%@ 10.54+1.3%
1-4
4.6%@ 22.44+2.7%
Nafta goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
5.9%
8.1%
6.6%
4.0%
1
2.4%
8.6%
9.5%
7.7%
4.6%
2
1.9%
4.5%
5.5%
4.5%
2.7%
3
0.7%
1.8%
2.1%
1.7%
1.0%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Nafta goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Nafta is 0.83 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Nafta is 0.05 goals better than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.71 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Nafta is 0.38 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Nafta
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Celje
For 5.4 · Against 6.7 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 14.0 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nafta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
13.0
8.8
1.2
1.4
0.9
27.8
27.5
28.2
vs Stronger (3)
12.7
13.0
12.0
4.3
5.5
2.0
24.3
25.0
23.0
vs Similar (24)
10.1
13.0
8.0
1.5
1.5
1.6
30.1
31.0
29.5
vs Weaker (23)
13.0
13.0
-
0.3
0.7
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
55%
67%
40%
20%
22%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
45%
33%
60%
80%
78%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
24.9
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.7%
@ 1.93+1.7%
Under 9.5
50.3%
@ 1.78-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.0%
Under 3.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
76.2%
Under 21.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Nafta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.33
0.73
0.33
1.00
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.41
0.62
0.38
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.23
0.86
0.29
1.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.67
0.88
0.76
1.23
0.54
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.60
0.75
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.62
1.12
0.75
1.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Nafta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.47
1.67
0.67
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.47
1.25
0.75
0.78
0.22
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.46
2.14
0.57
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.35
0.35
0.62
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.87
0.75
0.25
1.00
1.57
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.38
2.12
0.38
0.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.1%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.6%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
-
-
-
+0.4%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Nafta's squad is €12m less valuable than Celje's (€2m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Nafta's attack is €6m less valuable than Celje's (€1m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Nafta's midfield is €1m less valuable than Celje's (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Nafta's defence is €5m less valuable than Celje's (€1m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →